The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Freddy Peralta (R)
- Frankie Montas (R)
- Yu Darvish (R)
- Alex Manoah (R)
Freddy Peralta has been fantastic for much of the season, posting a 3.09 FIP, 12.26 K/9, 14.3% swinging-strike rate, and 0.8 HR/9. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus of 3.73 points on the season and has exceeded expectations 54% of the time. The big bugaboos have been the 3.87 walk rate and injuries.
Two starts ago, he left after only two innings due to right shoulder discomfort. After a two-week absence, he pitched on Saturday and only went two innings as well. He’s slowly getting ramped back up, and the Player Model has Peralta projected for 4.5 innings pitched today. That said, the model still has him with the highest Median and Ceiling Projection on the slate as well as the highest K Prediction.
At $10,200 on DraftKings, Peralta is not cheap and has a paltry 20% Bargain Rating, so decisions will have to be made, and projected ownership will dictate things.
Frankie Montas has a difficult matchup as the White Sox have the third-highest wOBA on the slate. They do have the third-highest SO/AB, though, and the Vegas Dashboard has Chicago projected for the second-lowest run total on the slate at 3.8.
The swinging-strike rate is a more than respectable 13.8%, while the K/9 is 10. Montas has a 68% Consistency Rating on the season and has exceeded points expectations 73% of the time. He’s gone for 22.21, 29.95, and 31.35 DraftKings points in his last three starts. However, four starts ago, he faced this White Sox team and put up 10.65 DraftKings points at 20% ownership for a Plus/Minus of -6.26.
Yu Darvish has been brutal in his last three starts. He’s allowed 5, 4, and 5 earned runs in 2 2/3, 6, and 2 2/3 innings pitched, respectively, while serving up a home run in each game. He has a 48% Consistency Rating, so these ups and downs are not uncommon.
There’s hope, though. In those three starts, the xFIP was 3.7 compared to the 11.12 ERA, the BABIP was .421, and the LOB% was only 39.3%. In addition, the Angels will be traveling to San Diego, so no DH. They also have the lowest wOBA on the slate at .231.
With his recent struggles, the roster percentage could be lower, and he has one of the slate’s highest ceilings.
Have you ever driven into a mall parking lot with the green and red light indicators showing empty and occupied spots? That’s what the recent game log for Alex Manoah looks like. Red, green, green, red, green, and red. In his last six starts, he’s scored negative DraftKings points twice but also scored 23.24 and 32.21 DraftKings points.
This could be another red one, as the Yankees have the highest wOBA on the slate at .338 and are projected for 5.2 runs. That said, the Yankees are sixth in strikeouts to right-handed pitching, and Manoah carved them up for 29.1 Draftkings points back in late May.
The Player Model has Manoah with the fourth-highest Median and Ceiling Projection, but the Bales Model has him with the fourth-worst Rating.
Touki Toussaint has a positive Plus/Minus of +2.03 and has exceeded expectations 50% of the time on the season. The SO/9 isn’t great at 7.36, and he’s allowed 1.75 HR/9, but he faces a Nationals team that has a paltry .170 wOBA, the second-lowest on the slate, and the highest SO/AB at .375. The Nationals are only projected for 3.9 runs as well.
There’s a risk as the Consistency Rating for Toussaint is only 44% on the year. Additionally, he can be prone to the long ball, but he has the sixth-highest projection, third-highest Rating according to the Bales Model, and is priced at only $7,300.
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
There are plenty of viable stacks today, but the Braves one stands out. A five-player Braves stack will cost 23.9K on DraftKings with a projection of 44.3 points.
- Travis d’Arnaud (R)
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Austin Riley (R)
- Jorge Soler (R)
The Braves opened at 5.7 runs and have been bet up to 6.0, the highest on the slate as the Nationals pitching is not great. The bullpen has the third-highest FIP and is top seven in HR/9 allowed. Starting will be Sean Nolin (L), who has the highest WHIP on the slate at 1.6 and has served up the most HR/9 at 1.98.
Granted, it’s only been 17 1/3 innings, and he’s had some bad luck, but the FIP is still 5.19, and four home runs are four home runs. As for splits, he’s actually been better against righties than lefties (22.4% strikeout rate compared to 16.7% against lefties), and he’s served up two home runs to both sides.
Travis d’Arnaud has the highest rating at the catcher position in the Bales Model, but he doesn’t have the highest ISO rating according to pitcher handedness. That distinction goes to Yan Gomes. According to Fangraphs, d’Arnaud does have a .188 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, so that’s still a very good number.
Freddie Freeman has the highest rating at first base. Hmmm, any wonder why the Braves are the best-projected stack? He doesn’t have the highest ISO rating, but it’s still a respectable .210. The price is high at $5,700 on DraftKings, but the roster percentage could be lower due to the elevated price tag and lefty on lefty matchup.
What do you know? Ozzie Albies has the highest rating at second base. He crushes lefties as the slash is .324/.354/.601 with a .277 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 13.3% compared to 20.2% against righties.
Austin Riley is… class? That’s right, the highest-rated third baseman on the slate. He’s actually been better against righties this season, as the ISO is .261 compared to .145 against lefties. The strikeout rate is also 6.6% higher against lefties, and he’s hit 27 of his 29 home runs off right-handed pitching.
Of course, Jorge Soler is the highest-rated outfielder. He is also only $3,900, so he and d’Arnaud are sub-$4,000 pieces. The strikeout rate is high while the batting average is low, but Soler will likely bat second in the order, and he’s crushed left-handed pitching this season (.308 ISO).
Chad Pinder is far from sexy and will likely bat towards the bottom of the lineup. He gets to face lefty Dallas Keuchel, who has the lowest rating in the Bales Model, the second-highest WHIP, fifth-highest HR/9, and lowest SO/9. The Oakland stack will likely be very popular, and the Leverage rating is only at 6%. That said, Pinder is much better against lefties than righties and has a .147 ISO against them this season.
Bryce Harper is one of the best power hitters in the game. Against right-handed pitching, he has a robust .320/.426/.676 slash with a .356 ISO. Over the last month, the Consistency Rating has been 52%, and the Leverage rating is a massive 96%.
Matt Chapman is often only rostered in the single-digits, but he gets a fantastic matchup on Wednesday. Keuchel has a 5.79 FIP, 4.09 K/9, and 1.42 HR/9 against righties. Chapman has crushed lefties to a .249/.339/.522 slash and .274 ISO. The Consistency Rating has been 54% this month.
Tyler Naquin is $2,900 and will likely bat second in the lineup. He gets to face Alec Mills, who has a 7.43 K/9, 1.35 HR/9, AND 4.97 FIP against lefties this season. Against right-handed pitching, Naquin has a .285/.341/.520 slash with a .235 ISO. He has a whopping 91% Bargain Rating in the Player Model.
Pictured above: Freddy Peralta
Credit: Justin Aller/Getty Images
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