Thursday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:05 pm ET.
The four pitchers projected for the most fantasy points tonight are:
- Yu Darvish
- Lance Lynn
- Taijuan Walker
- Adam Wainwright
The highest-rated pitcher on Bales Model for both FanDuel and DraftKings is Yu Darvish from the San Diego Padres. Darvish has been stellar to in the first two months of the year, with 79 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings. His first season in San Diego seems to be a success as Darvish has a team-leading five wins and seven quality starts in 11 starts. Tonight, he will be pitching against the New York Mets who have are projected to have the lowest implied runs total on the slate (2.8). Although the Mets have the best record in the NL East, this is a great opportunity for Darvish as the Mets have struggled on the road (12-16).
The second-highest priced pitcher on the main slate for FanDuel is Lance Lynn of the Chicago White Sox. Like Darvish, Lynn has found success pitching with a new club and only has one loss on the year. Tonight, he will be facing the Detroit Tigers, who have the second-lowest projected implied runs total on the slate (3.4).
Taijuan Walker is the second-highest priced pitcher on DraftKings for tonight’s main slate. Walker has been great to start his 2021 campaign, averaging one strikeout per inning pitched. He has strengthened an already solid pitching staff who leads MLB by allowing only 173 runs in 48 games. He will have to bring it again tonight as he is set to face the San Diego Padres in his 10th start of the season. In what figures to be a pitching duel between Walker and Darvish, it will be interesting to see which teams finishes on top. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at a very low 6.5.
A pitcher who has a high price but is not highly rated on Bales Model is Adam Wainwright of the St Louis Cardinals. One reason why Wainwright is not rated very high is because he is prone to giving up home runs. In 10 starts, Wainwright has allowed 10 home runs and tonight will be facing the Cincinnati Reds who have the fifth most homers in MLB (74). I am curious to see if he can keep the ball in the yard tonight as I will be fading the Cardinals’ righty.
- Vladimir Gutierrez
- Brett Anderson
- Kris Bubic
These are three value plays from a pitching standpoint that Bales Model recommends we consider when completing our lineups tonight. All cheaply priced, each of these pitchers bring value in different aspects of the game. While pitching at Triple-A this year, Gutierrez posted a 11.1 K/9 in three starts. Anderson’s value comes from his MLB experience. In 13 seasons, he has logged a career total of 194 starts and is the veteran of the three. Lastly, Bubic has shown great improvements from last season. He has allowed only one home run in seven games, compared to the eight he allowed in 10 games last campaign.
Today’s top stack comes to you from the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Kolten Wong (L)
- Dan Vogelbach (L)
- Christian Yelich (L)
- Avisail Garcia (R)
Projected to have the highest implied runs total on the slate of 5.1, the Brewers’ batters will be hoping to continue their hot hitting against Jon Duplantier of the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his fourth career MLB start, Duplantier allowed seven hits and four runs in only 4 2/3 innings. In a losing effort last game, the Brewers scored seven runs against the Detroit Tigers, which ended their five-game winning streak. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $12K in salary and is projected for a combined 46.5 fantasy points.
Bales Model predicts the highest floor play on the slate as Anthony Rendon from the Los Angeles Angels. Although Rendon is only hitting for .228 on the season, he has proven in the past that he is a batter that pitchers should be fearful of. Coming off a three-hit performance last game, he will be hoping to continue this newfound momentum throughout the rest of summer.
In what may be an unknown name to some, LaMonte Wade from the San Francisco Giants stands out on Bales Model as a highly rated batter tonight. In 21 at-bats this year, Wade has hit for .333 and an OPS of .964. Surprisingly, the Giants have the best record in baseball (34-21) and tonight are projected for an implied runs total of 4.5.
Lastly, here is a handful of value batters to consider while completing your lineups today:
- Omar Narvaez
- Ben Gamel
- Jorge Soler
- Kurt Suzuki
- Jon Berti
Photo Credit: Denis Poroy/Getty Images
Pictured: Yu Darvish