Wednesday’s main slate features nine games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. Note that the second game of the Tigers-Indians doubleheader is not on the main slate due to an unknown start time.
Pitchers
Four pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing, including one must-watch dual threat:
- Aaron Nola (R) $11,000, PHI vs MIA
- Luis Garcia (R) $10,500, HOU vs BAL
- Chris Bassitt (R) $9,800, OAK vs TEX
- Shohei Ohtani (R) $9,500, LAA @ NYY
Aaron Nola bookended his worst start of the season with 50-plus point efforts against the Yankees and Mets. He gets the chance to string together strong starts against the Marlins. Miami is one of the worst road teams against right-handed pitching, sporting a 79 wRC+ and one of the highest Soft Hit percentages. Nola tops pitching projections using the Bales Model, an advantage to exploit on DraftKings where his is priced below Chris Bassitt. He is the second-rated pitcher there and a top-five option on FanDuel.
One of the many reasons the Houston Astros have been on top of the AL West is the emergence of Luis Garcia. The 24-year old has a 2.83 ERA and strong strikeout rate, but his Expected ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all higher. Garcia is also a flyball pitcher and a 39.4 percent Hard Hit rate is a recipe for regression. The Orioles are a contact-based offense, and that is an issue. The contact is bad — 21 percent Soft Hit rate — and the road offense ranks 27th based on wRC+ and has the fifth-highest strikeout rate. Garcia leads all pitchers in Pro Trends and is the fourth-rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Bassitt sits atop the Bales Model on both platforms. He has scored at least 30 FanDuel points in 11 of 16 starts, including a 40-point effort against the Rangers six days ago. This time the game is in Oakland, where Bassitt has a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings. The Rangers have the lowest Soft Hit rate on the road against righties, but also strike out at a top-10 clip and have the highest Groundball-to-Flyball ratio. Do not be surprised to see his ownership up on FanDuel as the third-priced pitcher.
Shohei Ohtani is the best player in baseball this season and we get to see his pitching acumen in a road start against the Yankees. His June has been the best so far in his historic season, and now he gets an offense with big names and inconsistent production. The Yankees are an average home offense against righties and have managed a bottom-10 Hard Hit rate and top-10 Soft Hit rate despite playing in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Ohtani can give up the long ball and has an elevated 15.8 percent Home Run-to-Flyball rate. The Yankees have a top-half HR/FB rate and can put a damper on Ohtani’s historic month for one day.
Value
There are no pitchers I see as values without spending a little. Max Fried is coming off the 10-day IL with his blister issue gone and gets a Mets offense that leads baseball is soft contact against left-handed pitchers in road games. Fried has six quality starts in his last seven outings. He had zero in his first four starts of 2021.
Kolby Allard has some appeal against the Athletics as a pivot off Bassitt. He has thrown 22 innings over his last four starts and has scored 27, 33, 34, and nine FanDuel points in those outings. The nine was against Oakland, but the A’s have a 114 wRC+ against lefties on the road compared to 98 at home.
Fastballs
Joe Musgrove is a top-five pitcher despite a road start in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. The Reds are top 10 in walk rate and strikeouts and lead the league in OPS at home. Musgrove has allowed more than three runs twice all season and could see an ownership dip based on the matchup.
Steven Matz will make his first start after recovering from COVID-19. He has an excellent matchup at home against Seattle, but may be on a pitch count as his stamina is unknown. He will be a popular choice if no pitch count is confirmed.
Notable Stack
Run support is expected for Joe Musgrove:
- Jake Cronenworth (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Tommy Pham (R)
Total Salary: $14,300
The Padres are projected to score 5.8 runs against Vladimir Gutierrez. Pham is the second-rated hitter on both platforms and has three home runs in his last four games. Cronenworth has a hit in 20 of 26 June games, including seven home runs and 16 RBI. All of his run production has come since June 11.
Other Hitters
Marcus Semien has a .448 slugging percentage against lefties and faces Justus Sheffield. The middle infielder leads all hitters with seven Pro Trends.
Michael Brantley has six strikeouts in 79 June at-bats. The veteran also has a .418 average and 15 RBI heading into the final game of the month.
Carlos Santana, Hanser Alberto and Hunter Dozier all have an OPS over 1.050 against Red Sox starter Martín Pérez.
Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos are a combined 4-for-25 with one extra-base hit and nine strikeouts against Joe Musgrove.
In the 14 days between Bo Bichette’s last two home runs, he had 12 hits, eight RBI and three stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the best hitters in 2021, but Bichette has been just as important to the Blue Jays’ offense.
Photo Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
