Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD

When Kershaw is one of only 18 pitchers available, you pay for him. It helps that the Reds have a top-seven strikeout percentage versus right-handers, but Kershaw’s $14,000 salary is also significant. For example, there have been 35 instances in the last calendar year in which a pitcher — Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, or Kershaw — was priced at or above $14,000. Those starts resulted in a 60 percent Consistency and +4.53 Plus/Minus. Despite being priced above $13,000 since Opening Day, Kershaw has yet to record a Dud.

As I said: Pay for him.

Johnny Cueto, SF

If fading Kershaw in tournaments, you’re hoping that A) he produces 35 rather than 50 DraftKings points and B) your selection posts similar numbers. I can’t guarantee the former, but Cueto’s at least in a better matchup. Just note the Padres’ 25 percent strikeout rate vs. RHP. Their lineup is also projected with .038 more strikeouts per at-bats than Cincinnati’s. As the only other pitcher implied to allow fewer than three runs, Cueto might be the only comparable pivot.

Pitchers to Exploit

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Even their .362 slugging percentage vs. RHP shouldn’t stop the Phillies from mauling Pelfrey. He has actually allowed a respectable 195-foot batted-ball distance in his last two starts, but that doesn’t make up for his overall performance to date:

 

Odubel Herrera and Ryan Howard are the only hitters in the heart of their (projected) lineup with positive splits, but that’s enough to exploit Pelfrey, who’s projected to allow the fourth-most runs tonight.

Wei-Yin Chen, MIA

Ian Kennedy has allowed a farther batted-ball distance recently, but at least he has a good matchup. Chen, on the other hand, faces a Rays team with the second-highest Isolated Power (ISO) versus left-handed pitching. He has also allowed a line-drive rate four percentage points higher than that of any other pitcher tonight. In other words, this won’t be pretty.

C

Salvador Perez, KC

Both Perez’s Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and ISO Differential are top-10 at catcher tonight. He’s the second-most expensive player at his position, but he’s seemingly worth it. Just note his 226-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. Ricky Nolasco has also allowed a 215-foot batted-ball distance in that span.

Tommy Joseph, PHI

There’s no guarantee that Joseph starts, but I’m interested if he does. It’s an extremely small sample, but he has quietly averaged a 296-foot batted-ball distance in his last three starts. That spells disaster for Mike Pelfrey, despite Joseph’s negative differentials against righties.

1B

Steve Pearce, TB

Coincidently, Tommy Joseph is the only first basemen who has recently hit the ball farther than Pearce. At least Pearce has started more games (making his average more concrete). As for tonight, Wei-Yin Chen’s negative peripherals are somehow expected to maneuver around Pearce, who has a top-five ISO and slugging percentage vs. LHP. Good luck with that.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Did I mention that Mike Pelfrey isn’t good? Ok, just checking. Howard should be the priority in Philadelphia given his .165 wOBA Differential. He’s also still ridiculously cheap at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.

2B

Tommy La Stella, CHC

You would think the Cubs would play La Stella against a righty, but there’s really no way to tell. Still, he’s a strong option if in their starting lineup. Just note his .212 ISO Differential, which is .032 higher than anyone else’s at second base. His batted-ball distance trails that of only Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, and Daniel Murphy.

Rougned Odor, TEX

Of course, if La Stella doesn’t play, there’s always Odor to fall back on. His 189-foot batted-ball distance lately isn’t anything special, but his .520 slugging percentage is still top-two. And it’s not like Nick Tropeano, who has allowed a 223-foot batted-ball distance in that span, is going to stand in his way.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Our Player Models show Beltre with awful differentials vs. RHP, but he at least includes a $700 discount at DraftKings. Tropeano has also notably allowed 2.18 home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters this season.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

Seager is much better vs. RHP, but he’s currently making contact to the point that it doesn’t matter. Note his 235-foot batted-ball distance and exit velocity of 95 miles per hour over the last 15 days. Danny Espinosa has actually matched those totals in that time, but he isn’t facing Brandon Finnegan today. Seager also has the most Pro Trends among shortstops.

OF

Kike Hernandez, LAD

By now, you know that Hernandez typically leads off when the Dodgers face a lefty. But tonight is especially significant for Hernandez, since Brandon Finnegan has allowed the most home runs per nine innings among pitchers in the slate. Forego his .255/.248 wOBA and ISO Differentials if you wish, but Hernandez should have no trouble flourishing in this matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Let’s check in on Stanton:

 

Yep, still bad. But that’s all the more reason to go back to him in tournaments. After all, his .831 slugging percentage against southpaws is .140 higher than that of any other outfielder. His .525 ISO is unsurprisingly the highest there, as well. If anything, he should at least be rostered at FanDuel where he has endured a -$1,100 Salary Change in the last month.

Miguel Sano, MIN

It’s absurd how much farther Sano has recently hit the ball compared to others at his position. J.D. Martinez has hit it 3 MPH harder over the last two weeks, but Sano’s 272-foot batted-ball distance is eight feet farther than anyone else’s mark. That bodes extremely well for tonight, considering that Ian Kennedy’s HR/9 trails only Brandon Finnegan’s in this slate.

Weather Watch

Royals-Twins is expecting thunderstorms before and after first pitch. There might be a window to play this one rather than postpone it altogether, but even that’s questionable. If anything, stay away from their pitchers (Ian Kennedy and Ricky Nolasco) and prepare for the worst.

Good luck!