The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday has a split slate: There are three games in the 3:10 pm ET early slate and 12 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate offers a relatively strong group of pitchers; there are currently five pitchers priced $10,000 or above on DraftKings:
Clayton Kershaw leads the slate with a $12,500 price tag, and he’s probably the only pitcher in the world who makes that feel like a potential bargain. He’s currently priced only $300 more than Dallas Keuchel and $400 more than Zack Greinke, and he’s been priced below $13,000 on DraftKings in only 32 of his 92 starts since 2014. Typically those starts have come with a negative caveat like pitching at Coors Field, but today he is at home with a Park Factor of 64. The Nationals are a strong offensive team, with a .346 wOBA against lefties this season, but their implied team total of 2.9 runs is the lowest of the day by a wide margin. Kershaw is also pitching at home, where he’s historically offered tremendous value on DraftKings when comparably priced (per the Trends tool):
Kershaw has solid Statcast data over his last three starts – he’s allowed a 209-foot average batted ball distance, a 91 mile per hour exit velocity, a 50 percent ground ball rate, and a 33 percent hard hit rate – and his K Prediction of 8.3 is the second-highest mark on the slate. He also gets umpire Chad Whitson behind the plate, who has historically aided pitchers with an additional Plus/Minus of +1.68 on DraftKings.
It’s typically hard to find any reasons to be concerned with Kershaw, but there are a couple of potential pitfalls today. First, he’s being opposed by Stephen Strasburg; that results in moneyline odds of ‘only’ -163 for Kershaw. While some pitchers would kill for those kinds of odds, Kershaw has historically struggled with a Plus/Minus of -1.03 on DraftKings when comparably favored. Second, Kershaw is pitching in the three-game early slate, which also features Coors Field. DFS players will likely have to choose between the two, and picking Kershaw could result in some chalky lineups for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) with the hitting options being so limited.
FanDuel users will have to choose between Keuchel and Greinke on the main slate, who currently have Bargain Ratings of 93 and 94 percent, respectively. Of the two, Greinke appears to be in the better spot. He’s posted an excellent FanDuel Plus/Minus of +10.82 over his last 10 starts, and he gets to take on a projected Padres lineup that has a slate-low .279 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. The results are -180 moneyline odds, an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs, and a K Prediction of 8.0; all of those exceed the marks for Keuchel. The only downside with Greinke is that he’s pitching at Chase Field, where he has a historical Plus/Minus of -0.31 as a member of the Diamondbacks, although that didn’t stop him from dominating the White Sox to the tune of 12 strikeouts over 8.2 innings in his last home start.
Greinke should dominate the ownership on the main slate because of his traditional metrics, but Keuchel definitely has merits of his own. He has truly elite Statcast data over his last two starts, with an average batted ball distance of 172 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a ground ball rate of 69 percent, and a hard hit rate of 15 percent; pitchers with comparable recent data have historically been fairly dominant on FanDuel:
The Royals have really struggled with left-handed pitchers this season, posting the second-lowest wOBA at .277. They don’t strike out much, however that really isn’t a huge part of Keuchel’s game anyway: His 12-month K/9 of 8.04 is the lowest mark of the elite pitchers, but that hasn’t stopped him from averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.24 on FanDuel over his last 10 starts.
Values
On a day with Kershaw, Keuchel, and Greinke, the pitcher with the best moneyline odds is actually John Lackey, who is currently a -200 favorite against the Marlins. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds have returned value on DraftKings, where he also has a Bargain Rating of 84 percent:
Miami has a wOBA of .314 against right-handed pitchers this season, which ranks only 22nd out of 30 teams, and Lackey has a K Prediction of 6.6 that ranks fifth on the main slate. He looks like the safest non-stud option for cash games.
Alex Meyer hasn’t made a ton of starts this season, but so far he’s been impressive with his strikeout ability:
His current K Prediction of 7.4 is the second-highest on the main slate, which is especially impressive given his salary of only $6,000 on DraftKings. Comparable pitchers have a historical Plus/Minus of +3.03, and Meyer has also posted an impressive distance differential of -29 feet over the last 15 days. He has plenty of upside for GPPs.
Fastballs
Stephen Strasburg: He could be lower-owned than normal since he’s being opposed by Kershaw, but his K Prediction of 8.5 is the highest in the early slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 is also the third-lowest of the day.
Francisco Liriano: Outside of the stud options, pitching on the early slate is pretty limited. One cheaper option to consider is Liriano, who gets a great matchup against an Oakland team that has a 25.3 percent K rate against left-handed pitchers this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack courtesy of the Bales Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians, who lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.8 runs:
The high total is hardly a surprise given that the Indians are in Colorado. Outside of Francisco Lindor, the stacked batters have all shown positive distance differentials over the last 15 days:
Austin Jackson has mashed the baseball recently, posting an average distance of 264 feet over his last eight games, and batters with comparable distances have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +3.59. Projected to bat seventh, he should come with lower ownership than some of his teammates higher in the order, and he could be a crucial contrarian spot for Indians stacks. Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland has also given up an average distance of 220 feet over his last two starts – that represents an increase of 34 feet when compared to his 12-month average – despite only one of those starts coming at Coors Field. Because of the presence of Kershaw on the slate, the Indians could come with lower-than-expected ownership in GPPs.
Switching to the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are currently implied for only the 12th-highest total on the main slate, so the high ranking is a bit surprising. What the Twins do have going for them, however, is early reverse line movement: Their implied team total has already increased by 0.4 runs despite receiving less than 50 percent of the bets (per the Vegas Dashboard):
That kind of line movement can be significant. Batters with a comparable implied team total to the Twins have averaged a historical Plus/Minus of +0.26 on DraftKings, but if we factor in the line movement and public betting, that number increases to +0.62. Despite the Plus/Minus more than doubling, the average ownership for those players actually decreases to 5.1 percent. The Twins will likely be overlooked on this slate.
Batters
No batter has been more unlucky recently than Miguel Montero, who is currently projected to bat sixth for the Cubs. Here’s what he’s done in terms of fantasy production . . .
. . . despite posting an average batted ball distance of 256 feet over the last 15 days. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +96 on DraftKings, and batters with comparable Rec BBL scores have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.39 on DraftKings. The Cubs are also implied for 5.4 runs today, which is the highest total outside of Coors Field.
Odubel Herrera has been red-hot over his last four games:
Despite that kind of production, he still has a Rec BBL score of +64, thanks mostly to a massive distance differential of +55 feet over his last 11 games. Positive regression could continue to come his way.
Joey Gallo has recently moved up to the five spot in the order, and historically five hitters have averaged significantly more fantasy production than batters in the bottom-third of the order. If the Rangers can get to Zack Wheeler early tonight, Gallo will have a chance to leverage a high Opposing Bullpen Rating of 85. For more on Gallo, make sure to check out today’s Three Key Players piece from Joe Holka.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
