With the NFL Draft and free agency having come and gone, we’ll break down all sorts of fantasy-relevant questions entering the 2018 season. Up next is a look at if anyone can provide fantasy value in a crowded Jets’ backfield.
The Jets had a hole at running back after Matt Forte decided to retire, and they chose to fill it by bringing in former Browns RB Isaiah Crowell as a free agent. He signed a three-year, $12 million contract – making him the 19th-highest paid player at the position in 2018 – but that doesn’t mean he’s going to command a huge workload. The Jets still have Bilal Powell on the roster, who has served as a valuable RB for the past few seasons.
This is looking like a true committee, which is being reflected in their current average draft positions (ADPs): Crowell is coming of the board as the RB35 in PPR leagues, while Powell is being drafted as just RB52 (per Fantasy Football Calculator).
With neither player costing a premium pick at the moment, is there any value to be had with the Jets’ backfield?
Eat Some Crow
Crowell is coming from one of the most unique situations in football after playing for the Browns for the past four seasons. They were LOL-bad over the past two, winning just one total game, but the biggest strength for their football team was arguably their offensive line. The big fellas up front created an average of 1.81 yards before contact in 2017, which was the eighth-best mark in the NFL.
Overall, that allowed Crowell to have some success, averaging 4.47 yards per carry over the past two seasons. The bigger problem stemmed from the fact that Cleveland was forced to abandon the running game in a large portion of their contests. He never accumulated more than 19 carries in a single contest over that time frame, despite the fact that they ran at the fifth-highest frequency in one-score games. Of course, when you’re losing each game by an average of 11.0 points, that’s not exactly surprising.
When the Browns were expected to keep the game competitive, Crowell was actually a pretty solid fantasy asset. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.53 on DraftKings over the past two seasons when the Browns were an underdog of seven-points or fewer, although he was markedly better in 2016 than 2017 (per the Trends tool). Much of that stemmed from his TDs falling from seven to two and the fact that he wasn’t as involved in the passing game. He rarely played on third down last season, and Duke Johnson was able to siphon off 74 receptions at the RB position.
Ultimately, Crowell has an opportunity to receive a larger share of the workload in New York this season, but it remains to be seen just how much fantasy upside that gives him. The Jets’ offensive line was among the worst in the league last season, ranking 27th in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus. They also don’t figure to be in much better game scripts than the Browns were last season: Their over/under of 6 wins is tied for the third lowest mark in Vegas.
Boom Boom Pow(ell)
Powell is kind of like a used Honda Civic: You may not want to drive him everyday, but he’s typically pretty reliable. He’s averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in each of the past six seasons, and his average of 4.3 yards per carry in 2017 was more than half a yard more than Forte and Elijah McGuire averaged in the same situation.
Despite his steady production, the Jets seemed ready to leave Powell in the garage a bit more this season. They brought in Crowell to handle the early-down work, and McGuire seemed poised to assume a larger third-down role. McGuire averaged 10.4 yards per reception in limited playing time last season, so it made some sense on the surface.
Then the injuries started piling up. McGuire suffered a broken ankle early in camp and could wind up on injured reserve to start the season. Crowell suffered a concussion in their first preseason game, which hasn’t really enabled him to grab a stranglehold on the starting job. Powell started the Jets’ third preseason game – which is typically seen as a dress rehearsal for the regular season – and was on the field for each of their first 13 plays. He capped off their opening drive with a 10-yard TD and ultimately finished with 10 carries compared to just four for Crowell.
He seems like the Jets’ clear starter at this point, and fantasy owners are starting to catch on: His ADP has risen by nearly two full rounds over the past month:
Conclusions
It’s hard to get excited about Crowell at this point when you can grab Powell nearly four rounds later. He may eventually get passed on the depth chart or lose some touches when McGuire is ready to go, but it looks like the job is his to lose at the start of the season. Head coach Todd Bowles says he plans to ride the hot hand at RB this season, and it looks like Powell will get the first chance to establish himself.
The big X-factor is what the Jets decide to do at the QB position. They drafted Sam Darnold third overall, and he’s emerged as the favorite to start Week 1 in Vegas. He’s shown some flashes during the preseason, but he’s also done a lot of checking down. He’s averaged just 5.42 yards per attempt through his first three appearances, so the Jets RBs could see a nice bump in targets after ranking just 20th in 2017.
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Pictured above: Bilal Powell
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
