In our FantasyLabs PGA models, we have projected ownership, as well as data from FanShareSports highlighting which golfers for the U.S. Open should be most popular. Below I run through some of those golfers and identify intriguing pivots off of them in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
To see the custom model I built for this week’s U.S. Open, click here.
Pivot Play #1: Fade DJ and Rory and take Brooks.
Dustin Johnson has the highest buzz score of any player in the field at Pebble Beach this week in our FantasyLabs models. I anticipate DJ and Rory being chalk on DraftKings and believe there could be an ownership edge in paying up to be contrarian with Brooks Koepka.
Brooks has longer to-win odds than both Rory and DJ and is the most-expensive player by $300. In addition, Brooks is +115 vs. Rory and +109 vs. DJ in tournament matchups. Rory and DJ have higher equity based on the markets, which I’m hopeful will lead to a low-owned Koepka. The biggest risk in higher ownership is his track record in major championships.
Pivot Play #2: Pivot from Webb Simpson to Kevin Na.
Simpson is one of my top overall values on DraftKings this week. He is a -170 favorite over Finau (and $700 cheaper), -161 favorite over Phil Mickelson (and $500 cheaper) and essentially a coin flip (-110) vs. Justin Rose ($2,000 cheaper). The DFS golf community will easily recognize that Webb is a top value based on his matchup odds alone. This is reflected in his sentiment rating of 97% and the fourth-highest buzz score in the field from our friends at FanShareSports. Webb is basically a lock in cash games and should be one of the highest-owned players on DraftKings this week.
This creates an excellent pivot opportunity to one of my favorite golfers in the field, Kevin Na. Na is the exact same price as Simpson, which will naturally drag down his ownership. The last time we saw Kevin on the PGA Tour, he won the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Pivot Play #3: Pivot from Matt Kuchar to Adam Scott.
Kuchar has a perfect 100% sentiment rating and the 12th-highest buzz score in the field this week. He is leading the PGA tour in FedExCup points and GIR% this season. Kuchar is the epitome of a “safe” cash-game play and will be high owned again this week.
Adam Scott is $100 more and a slight favorite (-118) in his tournament matchup vs. Kuchar. The equity of both players is similar, and I’m hopeful Scott will have half the ownership of Kuchar.
Photo credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Kevin Na