In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 13 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Jonathan Taylor (1st)
- Elijah Mitchell (6th)
- Antonio Gibson (7th)
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Jonathon Taylor ($9,200 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) at Houston Texans
Taylor has been so good – and his usage so voluminous, that the question isn’t really if Taylor will have a good game or not against the Texans. He’s highly likely to have at least a reasonably strong performance, as he has every week since Week 3. That was the last time he scored under 19 DraftKings (17.7 FanDuel) fantasy points. Removing last week’s clash with the Bucs (who face the lowest rush rate in the league), Taylor has scored at least 21.2 DraftKings points every game of that span.
The real question is whether or not he’s able to post a big enough score to justify his salary. Much like Cooper Kupp at the wide receiver position, his salary so far exceeds that of his closest competitors that even a 30-point score won’t be a must for tournament lineups.
In a projected easy win against the Texans, there’s a slight concern that Taylor sees less than his usual workload. However, the Colts have three wins on the season of at least two touchdowns. Taylor’s (DraftKings) scores in those contests are 31.8, 37, 56.4.
The Texans actually have a solid pass defense, ranking eighth in DVOA. Where they struggle is against the run, ranking 25th. That means it’s likely that the Colts get to a big lead by Taylor scoring and continue to feed him once they’re there.
It’s extremely hard to fade Taylor on DraftKings this week regardless of contest type. He leads two of our Pro Models on DraftKings. He also leads our Minimalist Tournament Model on FanDuel, thanks to his relatively modest Ownership Projection.
Elijah Mitchell ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks (45.5 total)
Mitchell leads our Cash Game Model on DraftKings, where he ranks top three in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal. Much of this is due to an outstanding matchup with the Seahawks, who are allowing a league-high +7.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs this year. They also just got gashed (on Monday night) by Antonio Gibson for over 11 rushing yards.
Mitchell should have the backfield more or less to himself this week, with receiver/running back Deebo Samuel out of the picture. Samuel had siphoned 11 total rushes in Mitchell’s last two healthy games and three rushing touchdowns. Jeff Wilson will be the primary backup to Mitchell, but he’s been less of a threat. (Wilson averages a miserable 2.7 yards per carry this season, compared to 4.8 for Mitchell.)
Mitchell is somewhat limited as a receiver, averaging less than two targets per game. (Although he did have six last week.) This makes him a better play as a favorite, which the Niners are this week (per our Trends tool).
The sample size is small, but those are pretty stark splits.
We have Mitchell projected for the highest ownership on the slate (DraftKings) this week. It’s probably fine to fade him in tournaments – his relatively limited passing role makes it hard for him to find a slate-breaking ceiling. However, he’s an extremely difficult fade in cash games.
Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (+1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
If we think about DFS as a market – which is more applicable to cash games but relevant for tournaments as well – one way to find success is by buying assets at a lower price than they’re worth. This isn’t always obvious, given how sharp the operator’s pricing algorithms are as a rule. There’s a couple of ways that their prices can just be “off,” though. One of those is injuries when a player is priced as a backup but suddenly expected to be the starter. Another is when a player has a great performance after next week’s salaries are already released.
The latter scenario is the case with Gibson, who racked up 146 yards and seven catches on 36 opportunities Monday night. Both his carry and his target counts were season highs. Over the last three games, he has a league-high 72 carries. He was even able to have a big game Monday night without scoring a touchdown, which is a great sign.
If that level of usage continues, it’s safe to say that Gibson’s current salaries on both sites are far too cheap. Those salaries are more appropriate for the lesser-used back in a committee than a three-down workhorse. The question, of course, is whether that usage will truly continue.
For much of the year, Gibson had relatively modest usage. He averages 16.63 carries while seeing less than 40% of Washington’s running back targets. As recently as Week 11, he had a zero target game. However, pass-game back J.D. McKissick is ruled out for Sunday’s contest, so Gibson (a wide receiver in college) is in position for most of the running back targets.
He’s unlikely to repeat Monday’s 29 carry performance. However, if his targets are, he’s a screaming value at his current prices. Gibson leads all of our FanDuel models, as well as two on DraftKings.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Joe Mixon ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (50.5 total)
The Chargers defense ranks 32nd against the run but 11th against the pass, clearing the way for a big game from Mixon. Mixon is one of the few remaining three-down running backs in the league, ranking third in carries behind only Taylor, and somehow Derrick Henry (who somehow still leads the league in carries despite missing the last five weeks).
Mixon’s receiving role is a slight concern, with only 30 targets on the year. However, he’s used in the passing game when the Bengals need him and has at least four targets in three of their last four games.
Mixon projects for significantly lower ownership than Taylor (the only back who projects for more points), making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.
Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
We have Ekeler projected for the lowest DraftKings ownership of the three top backs (Ekeler, Mixon, Taylor) on DraftKings, making him a strong tournament play. He leads the Minimalist Tournament Model for DraftKings backs.
Ekeler is the RB2 in DraftKings scoring on the season and should continue his high-volume pass game role with the Chargers as slight underdogs to the Bengals. The Bengals and Chargers allow opposing backs an identical +1.9 Plus/Minus on the season. That means the matchup is just as good for Ekeler as it is for Mixon. If the game goes as Vegas is projecting, it’s also reasonable to play Ekeler and Mixon in the same lineup – which is sure to be a unique build.
Alexander Mattison ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions (46.5 total)
Mattison will be stepping in for Dalvin Cook as he does a few times per year, but this time, DraftKings priced him appropriately. Mattison’s price never rose above $6,600 on DraftKings in his last stint as a starter.
As we should know by now, Mattison effectively handles 100% of the work when Cook is out. Against the Lions defense, that work is extra valuable. Mattison shredded them for 30 DraftKings points in their last matchup. That one was a much closer game than this one projects to be, which explains Mattison’s seven targets. I doubt he approaches that level this week but could make up for it with improved efficiency or rushing touchdowns.
Darrell Henderson ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 total)
Assuming this game goes how the spread would indicate, Henderson should be featured heavily. His only 20-carry game of the season also came in the Rams biggest win to date. The Rams also have the second-highest point total on the slate, meaning his touchdown equity is high. Henderson would’ve been massively owned last week, given the lack of quality running back options. I doubt that’s the case this week, so he’s solidly in play for tournaments.
Editor’s note: Henderson is listed questionable for Sunday.
Jamaal Williams ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (46.5 total)
The Vikings are a fairly heavy run funnel this season, which works perfectly for a Lions team that lacks both the ability and willingness to throw the ball. Williams is stepping in for the injured D’Andre Swift this week and – unlike Mattison – is still priced as a backup. He’s likely to come in at reduced ownership given the strength of Mitchell and Gibson this week. He’s a stronger play on DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating.
James Conner ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears (43.5 total)
Conner’s FanDuel price is a bit silly for a player who’s so touchdown-dependent. It’s still extremely reasonable on DraftKings, though. He also has a better shot at scoring touchdowns this week with the (presumed) return of Kyler Murray. The whole offense is likely to function better, which benefits Conner. (Arizona scored 33 total points the last two games without Murray. With Murray, they scored at least 30 in six of his eight games.)
