This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy Masters scouting reports for golf’s brightest stars.
A two-time major championship winner, a FedEx Cup Champion, and a former World’s No. 1 golfer, Jordan Spieth is clearly one of golf’s brightest young stars. With a win and two third-place finishes in the first two months of 2017, he’s back to looking a bit like the Spieth of 2015, when he won five tournaments including the Masters and U.S. Open. Let’s dive into the numbers of the former Texas Longhorn who is still just 23 years old.
Statistical Breakdown
Playing in nearly the same number of tournaments each season from 2013 to 2016, Spieth peaked in terms of average DraftKings points per tournament (PPT) in 2014-15, when he produced 85.89 PPT.
In 2015-16, not only did his PPT drop, but he also produced a negative Plus/Minus with the poorest Consistency Rating of his career.
So far this season, Spieth has averaged a monster 105.6 PPT with an amazing 80 percent Consistency and +27.0 Plus/Minus — often with the highest salary in the field. Although these numbers are more than likely unsustainable, it’s not out of the question that Spieth could improve upon his averages from his 2014-15 season, since he is still approaching his prime.
In 70 tournaments since 2014, Spieth has produced a +3.67 Plus/Minus with 55.7 percent Consistency. His average ownership has been close to 25 percent in large-field DraftKings tournaments.
Trends
Augusta National Course History
Per our Trends tool, Spieth’s recent mastery of the Masters has been nothing short of spectacular: He has averaged 107.0 DraftKings PPT and a +33.79 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency over the past three years. It’s incredible to think that even with last year’s meltdown on the back nine — including dunking two balls in Rae’s Creek — Spieth still managed to score 101.0 points and exceed his lofty salary-based expectations by more than 21 points.
Jordan’s 28 birdies at the 2015 Masters is a tournament record.
Spieth’s 107.0 PPT is his third-highest tournament average for all tournaments in which he has played more than once since 2014. He clearly loves Magnolia Lane.
Vegas Odds
Since 2014, Spieth has played in about as many tournaments with odds to win of at least 10 percent as he has with odds of less than 10 percent. Unsurprisingly, he has excelled as a double-digit Vegas favorite:
Conversely, Spieth has exceeded his salary-based expectations in just 20 of 39 tournaments when playing with odds to win of less than 10 percent. His PPT drops to 74.92 — nearly 10 points below his average as a favorite — and his Plus/Minus dips by -0.64 points.
That his Consistency drops 10 percentage points with lower salary-based expectations is something to remember when Spieth tees it up with lower odds to win — but that’s probably not something to concern yourself with for the Master: At the time of writing, Spieth has 12.5 percent odds to win, the second-highest odds in the stacked Masters field.
Last year Spieth had 12.5 percent odds to win and finished with a +21.86 Plus/Minus in the tournament.
Current Form
In Spieth’s six most recent tournaments, he has averaged a monster 103.92 PPT with an amazing +24.54 Plus/Minus and incredible 80 percent Consistency. Spieth’s 67.6 Recent Adjusted Round Score and 27.5 Recent Adjusted Putts Per Round are currently tied for ninth in the Masters field, and his 18.0 Recent Adjusted Birdie Average is tied for fourth.
Spieth won the ATT Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in mid-February and finished 12th his last time out at the WGC-Mexico Championship.
The Masters: Player Type
Spieth’s Long-Term (LT) Adjusted Round Score of 68.0 is the fourth-best score among all golfers in the Masters field and supports his reputation as an elite golfer. But what separates Spieth from the crowd at Augusta? Let’s have a look at the metrics.
Elite Putter and Birdie Maker
The graphic above shows how Spieth lines up with the rest of the field on a metric-by-metric basis. His 28.1 LT Adjusted Putts Per Round leads all regular PGA Tour Players. To put that number in perspective: Only 10 players in the upcoming field at The Masters have an Adjusted PPR of 28.5 or lower and three of them — Fred Couples, amateur Curtis Luck, and Yuta Ikeda — are not regular PGA Tour Players. The 2007 Masters Champion Zach Johnson, once said “You just have to be on your toes on every single putt you ever have in the Masters.” Spieth’s elite putting ability gives him an edge at Augusta.
Spieth’s 17.1 LT Adjusted Birdie Average is also elite and gives him extra value, given the DraftKings scoring system. Rory McIlroy and the scorching-hot Dustin Johnson are the only golfers in the Masters field with higher LT Adjusted Birdie Averages.
Per our Trends tool, golfers with comparable LT metrics have historically provided an +8.23 Plus/Minus at Augusta National.
While Spieth is in the middle of the field at Augusta in Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy, his current 63.6 LT Scrambling percentage ranks inside the top five among regular players on the PGA Tour and helps to make up for his GIR, DD, and DA deficiencies. Being able to scramble around these difficult greens at Augusta gives Spieth a chance to stay compete on Sunday.
Conclusion
Not yet 23 years old, Spieth still has plenty of room to grow. He is off to a great start this year and is poised to eclipse the massive numbers he posted in the 2014-15 PGA Tour season.
With his history at Augusta and current form, Spieth seems poised to make another run at a green jacket this year. As long as he can steer clear of Rae’s Creek and any lingering demons from last year’s collapse, Spieth will make an excellent play in guaranteed prize pools this year, even as one of the highest-salaried golfers in the field.
