Bengals vs. Browns Odds

• Bengals Spread/Moneyline: -3 (-110), -170
• Browns Spread/Moneyline: -1.5 (-110), +155
• Over/Under: 45
• Date & Time: Monday, Oct. 31 | 8:15 pm ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) and Cleveland Browns (2-5). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the favorite with an implied win probability of 62%, leaving the Browns with a 38% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -3.0 with a Game Total of 45.0.

 

Cleveland’s primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in football at 381 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Browns 5.27 yards per carry ranks #4-best in the NFL. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn’t opening up holes and creating space, it doesn’t matter how good a team’s running backs are. To that point, Cleveland’s line ranks #2-best in the league in run blocking. This presents a decided advantage for Cleveland given that the Bengals haven’t had much success in stopping the run this year, giving up 4.53 yards per carry (#18-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Browns check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 249 yards per game against Cleveland this year (#19 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 against them with 5.12 yards per ground attempt. This Browns defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 56.4% of their passes (#3-lowest in the league). Cleveland’s defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.83 yards per target (#2-worst in the league)

Cincinnati’s biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #9 in the league with 364 yards per game. They’ve achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #3-best in football with 295 yards per game. This represents a particular advantage for Cincinnati given that the Browns have struggled so much to stop the pass this year, allowing 9.17 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Bengals have ranked #6 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 202 yards per game through the air against them (#6 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.53 yards per carry. Cincinnati has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 62.6% completion rate (#2-lowest). Cincinnati has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 81.5% completion rate (#8-highest).

Bengals Betting Tips

Joe Mixon – Over/Under 17.5 Carries

• THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Hayden Hurst – Over/Under 37.5 Receiving Yards

• Hayden Hurst has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).

Joe Burrow – Over/Under 23.5 Completions

• The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

 

Browns Betting Tips

Jacoby Brissett – Over/Under 12.5 Rushing Yards

• THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to be a more important option in his offense’s running game this week (13.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).

Jacoby Brissett – Over/Under 19.5 Completions

• The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage. 

Kareem Hunt – Over/Under 38.5 Pass Attempts (-130/-102)

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Monday Night Football NFL Betting Trends

Over/Under 45 Game Total (-110/-110)

• The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)