Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup featuring the Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Cash Game Strategy
If you thought the Titans-Jaguars was disgusting, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Mitchell Trubisky — by far the highest projected player in our DK Showdown Models.
Despite added weapons, Trubisky has inexplicably regressed, though I suspect facing the stout Packers and Broncos defenses in Weeks 1 and 2 have something to do with that. Trubisky fits on DraftKings along with Case Keenum, Adrian Peterson and all three members of the Bears’ three-man backfield committee: David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis. This should provide exposure to all the passing and rushing touchdowns save for Chris Thompson, who has managed to cross the goal-line on the ground just five times in 57 career games.
With FanDuel’s more TD-centric scoring, getting in Montgomery and AP alongside the two QBs is the priority. A Trubisky-Keenum-Montgomery-Peterson core works with a player $6,000 and under, and Trey Burton would have the highest median projection if active.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass catchers. Note that on FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears: Handled a career-high 18 carries last week, and the Bears will surely look to establish the run again vs. a Redskins defense ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus’ team run defense grades.
Allen Robinson, WR, Bears: Has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate behind Trubisky. Including last season’s double-doink playoff loss, A-Rob is averaging a 4.9-66-0.36 line on 8.1 targets in 14 games with Trubisky.
Vernon Davis, TE, Redskins: The Bears entered Week 2 allowing the seventh-most yardage in the league to opposing tight ends.
Trey Quinn, WR, Redskins: According to Pro Football Focus, Bears slot corner Buster Skrine has been targeted on 20% of snaps compared to 16% for Prince Amukamara and 19% to Kyle Fuller.
Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins: Redskins offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connnell wants to emphasize the short passing game, per Ben Standig of The Athletic, and this plays to Thompson’s strength more than Peterson’s.
- Trubisky-Burton +0.66
- Trubisky-Cohen +0.65
- Trubisky-Miller +0.62
- Bears QB-Opposing QB +0.54
- Robinson-Miller +0.52
- Trubisky-Robinson +0.26
- Bears RB1-DST +0.28
- Burton-Gabriel -0.14
- Robinson-Cohen -0.18
- Robinson-Burton -0.20
- Bears QB-RB1 -0.21
- Trubisky-Gabriel -0.29
- Cohen-Gabriel -0.29
- Trubisky-Bears DST -0.30
- Robinson-Gabriel -0.32
- Cohen-Bears DST -0.35
- Bears RB1-RB2 -0.35
Trubisky’s success has been strongly tied to the presence of Trey Burton and Anthony Miller, who haven’t been playing a full compliment of snaps as they work their way back from offseason injuries. Both are strong stacking partners from Trubisky in large-field GPPs. If the Bears take of business as expected, lineups built around Montgomery-Bears DST stacks with minimal pass catchers involved are most likely to flourish.
- Peterson-Richardson +0.66
- Thompson-Davis +0.62
- Redskins QB-Opposing QB +0.28
- Peterson-Redskins DST +0.18
- Thompson-Peterson -0.37
- Peterson-Davis -0.61
- Thompson-Redskins DST -0.70
- Thompson-Richardson -1.00
Interestingly, Paul Richardson seems like something of a lynchpin, as his correlation to Peterson has been strongly positive and his correlation to Thompson has been extremely negative. If Peterson and Richardson were having success, it would essentially mean the playaction game is working, but Nagy’s defense is unlikely to be fooled, so combinations built around a Thompson-Davis core look like the more +EV move.
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly owned players. Kickers and DSTs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those that stand out will be highlighted below.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Redskins: Has a tough matchup, but entered Week 3 fifth in the league in Air Yards (277) and third in Air Yard market share (51%), per AirYards.com, so if he eats it probably comes at the expense of the rest of his teammates.
Mike Davis, RB, Bears: Played 15-of-81 snaps last week but is liable to cut into Montgomery’s usage if Chicago falls behind, as was the case in Week 1, when Davis played 41-of-73 snaps and was targeted seven times.
Redskins DST: Per our NFL Trends tool, DSTs at home against the Bears have posted a 60% Consistency Rating since the start of 2018, eighth-highest in the league over that span.
Taylor Gabriel, WR, Bears: Has been negatively correlated to everyone else on the team except the defense and kicker. The issue with Gabriel is he has also been negatively correlated with grass, scoring a TD once every 12.4 touches indoors and once every 31.6 touches outdoors in his career.
Ranking the low-cost, complimentary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Anthony Miller, Bears: Played 32-of-61 snaps last week and has unrealized upside after scoring seven TDs in his rookie year last year.
- WR Steven Sims, Redskins: Ran one route but got three carries last week. Also serves as the team’s primary kick returner, so it’s clear they want to get him touches.
- WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears: Played 20 snaps and ran 15 routes in Week 1, handling one carry, then played 15 snaps, ran five routes and got two carries in Week 2.
- TE Jeremy Sprinkle, Redskins: Played 20 snaps, seven routes last week and has caught one pass in each of the first two games.
- RB Wendell Smallwood, Redskins: Played 14 snaps and 12 routes last week, carrying once and catching two passes, and could see similar action if the Redskins again fall behind, which also provides some leverage on Peterson and Thompson owners.
- TE Adam Shaheen, Bears: Played 20 snaps, eight routes last week and caught three passes for 24 yards on three targets.
- TE Ben Braunecker, Bears: Played 14 snaps, eight routes last week and caught two passes for 24 yards on three targets.
- WR Javon Wims, Bears: Played 20 snaps, 19 routes in Week 1 and 18 snaps, 10 routes in Week 2 but has caught zero passes on two targets this season.
- WR Kelvin Harmon, Redskins: Played six snaps and ran three routes last week.
- WR Robert Davis, Redskins: Played four snaps, three routes last week.
Pictured above: Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (10)
Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports