From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Dallas Cowboys Team Preview
The only thing the 2015 Dallas Cowboys had left to play for in Week 17 was pride and a $300,000 bonus for Darren McFadden, who was three yards shy of reaching his 1,000-yard incententive. McFadden had certainly earned the additional paycheck. Once starting running back Joseph Randle was forced to exit the game in Week 7 with an oblique injury, McFadden would average 4.75 yards per carry and a +6.21 Plus/Minus at DraftKings to finish the year (per our Trends tool).
Three quarters into that final game, pride had already been jettisoned, as Dallas trailed Washington’s B-team 34-16 with under 12 minutes to play. McFadden had reached the 1,000-yard mark earlier in the contest, so few people would’ve blamed him if he had just coasted until the final whistle. But the Cowboys were driving — on Washington’s side of the field, in fact — and were suddenly only 23 yards shy of recording their 24th touchdown on the year, which would at least allow them to finish 31st, rather than 32nd, in scoring.
First and 10: Kellen Moore pass incomplete deep right.
Second and 10: Kellen Moore pass incomplete deep left.
Third and 10: McFadden left end for 20 yards. Fumble. Touchback.
No single play summarized the 2015 Cowboys better: Expected to be good but ultimately very bad. Those expectations are evidently extending into 2016. Vegas isn’t taking the Cowboys’ 4-12 record at face value, as Dallas’ 9.5 win total this year is the highest in the NFC East and tied with that of notable teams such as the Chiefs, Bengals, and Vikings. The early consensus is that everything that could’ve gone wrong for the Cowboys last season did.
They’re already off on the wrong foot this year.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
Whether Dallas’ reasons to draft Elliott fourth-overall were short-sighted (and they were) is now a moot point. The focus in fantasy and for seething Cowboys fans alike should be directed toward Elliott’s inevitable workload and soft schedule, since there is no new acquisition or rookie on any team who is better positioned for success. And we haven’t even touched on his reportedly elite vision and physical profile or that he recorded 2,027 scrimmage yards in his final season with Ohio State.
He does admittedly face a tough stretch between Weeks 10 and 13, since all four opponents in that span finished top-10 in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to running backs in 2015, but his schedule in the eight games prior include matchups against the 19th-, 14th-, 31st-, 17th-, 32nd-, and 24th-ranked defenses in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed at his position last year. Coming off of a bountiful stretch like that, Elliott will likely present DFS players with an ideal opportunity to fade him in Week 10 when he faces the Steelers and their rushing defense, which last year finished No. 5 in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average.
There have been questions as to how many touches Elliott will actually receive and if he’ll even be the first-string back, but there are only so many options for the Cowboys to choose from, at least to start the year. McFadden had surgery on a broken right elbow in June and it remains unclear whether he’ll be ready for the season opener. Also, the Cowboys haven’t shown themselves to be a team that splits their backfield carries since offensive coordinator Scott Linehan joined their coaching staff.
While most teams have implemented a two-back system, Dallas still prefers to lean on one whenever possible. DeMarco Murray, for instance, recorded 83 percent of Dallas’ total carries in 2014, which would set an unrealistic bar for all those who followed. Nevertheless, Randle received 57.3 percent of the Cowboys’ rushing attempts in his stint as a starter the following season. When he was injured, McFadden received 73.7 percent of the carries to finish the year.
As myopic as it was for the Cowboys to draft Elliott after being almost as efficient running the ball in 2015 as they had been in 2014 — and that was without their starting quarterback and No. 1 wide receiver for a combined 19 games — they are likely to give Zeke every opportunity to ‘prove’ that they were right to invest heavily in him. He will likely be an immediate cash option to start the year.
Darren McFadden
As mentioned earlier, McFadden was very good when starting in place of Randle. Unfortunately, it will likely take an injury to Elliott for McFadden to be relevant in cash games again. He didn’t score many touchdowns last year, but he did manage to turn three of his five attempts inside the five-yard line into scores. If he were to see spot starts this year, he would likely score at a higher per-touch rate than he did last year.
Alfred Morris
Assuming McFadden isn’t healthy to start the year, Morris should begin 2016 as Dallas’ No. 2 back by default. He’s not a third-down back — he doesn’t catch passes and he finished as Pro Football Focus’ 118th back in pass blocking last year — so he seems very unlikely to get a lot of playing time. Also, despite his size he’s not much of a goal-line back either, scoring only once on five attempts inside the five-yard line last season. When McFadden returns from injury, ALF will likely be nothing more than a sparsely used third-string between-the-tackles grinder.
Lance Dunbar
Dunbar’s season ended in Week 4 when he suffered numerous tears to his left knee. Through the first three weeks of the season, he quietly led all running backs with 24 targets and was one of the most valuable options at his position since his salary never exceeded $3,200 at DraftKings.
There’s a chance that Dunbar could be placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list to open the season, which would guarantee that he would miss the first six games of 2016 as he continues to rehab. When he returns, his targets should be closely monitored. If Dallas intends to use him as a regular receiving option, he could once again be very undervalued.
Quarterbacks
Tony Romo
In the third game of the preseason, Romo broke a bone in his back. He’s expected to miss at least half of the season. Will he return at all in 2016? Will he be healthy when he returns? Will he even be the starter? Who knows . . .
Even though he is No. 5 in fourth-quarter comebacks and No. 7 in game-winning drives among active leaders, Romo will always be considered a sham by a certain demographic of the population. Still, even these people must have witnessed the negative trickle-down effect that occurred in 2015 when he was absent. The Cowboys averaged 251.2 passing yards and 347.7 total yards in his four starts last year. They averaged 205.5 passing yards and 330.7 total yards in all other contests.
Romo has averaged a +1.26 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in 19 starts over the past two seasons. Over that same period, the Dallas backups have collectively done . . . not well:
Romo is one year (and more injuries) removed from a very efficient 2014 Pro-Bowl season in which he led the league with an 83.6 Total QBR. When/if he returns, he should be available at something of an injury discount.
The real question is what will Dallas’ passing offense look like without him.
Dak Prescott
Jameill Showers
Showers is like Prescott — except worse in almost every measurable way. He was one of the Cowboys’ final cuts before the regular season last year. A second-year undrafted quarterback, Showers started his college career at Texas A&M but eventually transferred to Texas-El Paso, where he played in only 20 games. As a senior, he threw for 1,858 yards and 12 touchdowns, adding another four on the ground.
Slated to open the season as the team’s de facto No. 2 passer, he’s one Dak injury away from being the least inspiring quarterback ever to start for the Cowboys. Of course, he’s also a decent runner, so he’d probably still have DFS value as a cheap option.
Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant
There are narratives suggesting that perhaps Bryant was content after signing a five-year, $70 million deal in July last year, and it’s true that his 2015 performance was disappointing:
At the same time, he played only three games with Romo last year. It’s doubtful that Prescott finishes 2016 with numbers similar to Romo’s in his first year as starter, but the rookie should theoretically be better than Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, and Moore. Unfortunately, Bryant has been subpar with anyone besides Dallas’ franchise leader in passing yards under center. In 70 career games with Romo, for instance, Bryant has averaged 5.1 receptions and 73.2 yards. Those averages fall to 3.7 and 49.4 in 14 games with anyone else at quarterback.
Still, at least his touchdown totals should still improve. As noted by Fantasy Douche, Bryant has turned 49 percent of his targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns throughout his career, but went 0-for-6 with no catches in that area in 2015. This season he should see a substantial return to form. Of course, that doesn’t take into account that he already has a top-10 Week 1 salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, where he no longer seems like a safe option in cash games.
Terrance Williams
Cole Beasley
Beasley led the 2015 Cowboys with 17 red-zone targets, but don’t think for one second that he’ll come close to doing that again. It was the first time he recorded more than seven red-zone targets in his career and, like Williams, he had his stats padded in Week 17: He received three targets inside the 10-yard line against Washington’s second-string defense. Beasley is a terrific receiver in that he has caught at least 51 percent of Dallas’ first downs in every season since he was drafted, and he’s actually an undervalued DFS asset because he’s almost always cheap — but he’s a better player for the purposes of reality than fantasy.
Brice Butler
It took Bryant not playing in the last two games of the year for Butler even to sniff a serious snap rate, but he responded with 19 targets and an average of 10.7 DraftKings points in that span. He needs to improve his catch rate — 46.2 percent on 26 targets last season — but Butler could be a sneaky tournament play coming into 2016, especially since he’ll undoubtedly begin the year with a minimum salary.
Devin Street
Dallas’ failure to draft serviceable depth is why the team will ‘depend’ on Street, Vince Mayle, and even Lucky Whitehead if Bryant or Williams is injured this year. Street replaced Bryant when he was absent in Weeks 2-5 last year, but he was surpassed by Butler on the depth chart once Dallas returned from its bye in Week 7. Whitehead has at least shown the ability to be an effective special teams player. The other two haven’t made any significant strides in the passing game, which is especially disappointing for Street, whom the team drafted in 2014 because he was presumably a smooth route runner.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten
Say what you will about Witten’s age, but no one at his position has been more reliable for such an extended period of time. He has received at least 100 targets in eight of his last nine seasons, never once missing a single game in that span. What’s more is that he still provides a clear advantage when his salary drops at DraftKings.
Compare that to the five games in which his salary has been at least $5,000 in the last two years. Witten has an average Plus/Minus of -1.88 in those games. At least for Week 1, priced at $4,100 on DraftKings, Witten has the opportunity to provide some value.
James Hanna
Dallas used two tight ends on 28.8 percent of their offensive plays last season. If they’re looking to imitate their 2014 offense, you would think that they would strive for the 39.3 percent they recorded then. Of course, Hanna has never had more than 15 targets in a season. It’s not as if he doesn’t have good hands — Hannah caught seven touchdowns as a junior at Oklahoma University. Additionally, at the 2012 combine Hanna proved himself to be a freak athlete with amazing speed and agility for the position. If the Cowboys ever decided to use Hanna as a move tight end, they might be surprised by his capabilities.
Gavin Escobar
Escobar isn’t nearly the athlete that Hanna is, but he was very productive at San Diego State and when the Cowboys drafted the redshirt junior in the second round of the 2013 draft they seemed to have big plans for him. Of course, like Hanna, Escobar has never seen more than 15 targets in a season. In 2014 he did turn 13 of his targets into four touchdowns, seemingly existing only to troll those who rostered Witten. If Escobar is to see a substantial increase in action, the Cowboys will need to use much more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) and Witten, who doesn’t miss time to begin with, will need to be on the field for fewer than 98 percent of the team’s plays.
Unless Witten does the unthinkable and actually misses multiple games, Escobar’s contract year will likely be as unproductive as all the other years and will result in his playing elsewhere next season. Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys learned nothing from the experience of drafting Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett in the second round and then letting them waste away on the bench for four years.
Two-Minute Warning
Last year, the Cowboys were the worst team in the NFL in fumble recovery percentage. They were 2-6 in one-score games. Their defense was the worst in history at creating turnovers on a contest-to-contest basis. They entered the 2015 season thinking that they could depend on Romo and Bryant and hoping they could depend on Randle. Needless to say, they won’t have all of these problems in 2016.
But they’ll definitely still have the ‘Romo problem.’ His injury throws a wrench into Dallas’ 2016 outlook, but the early part of its schedule favors the running game. With Bryant additionally set to return, the Cowboys can still surpass their 9.5 win total set by Vegas if everything (besides an injury to the face of their franchise) breaks their way. If Zeke comes even close to living up to his draft position and Prescott performs at a slightly above-replacement level, the Dallas offense could be a deep and undervalued source of fantasy production throughout the year.
