UFC Vegas 124 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Cortes Acosta vs. Walker, More Saturday Fights

We have one more week of Apex action before the UFC hits the road for a handful of high-profile events starting next week. This time we have an impromptu main event between heavyweights Waldo Cortes Acosta and Johnny Walker.

The 14-card slate locks at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the DFS angles.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($8,700) vs. Johnny Walker ($7,500)

With the planned Sean Brady vs. Gabriel Bonfim main event scrapped due to a Brady staph infection, the UFC turned to the generally reliable Waldo Cortes-Acosta to headline this weekend’s event. “Salsa Boy” catapulted himself into the heavyweight ranks by going 5-1 over a 10-month span beginning in March of 2025. That got him briefly in the title picture, but he followed that up with consecutive decision losses to Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.

Cortes-Acosta is quickly settling into the “Neil Magny role,” a gatekeeper to the top of the division who is a tough test for lesser fighters but lacks the ceiling to beat the division’s best. The former minor-league pitcher is a high-volume striker with good cardio and boxing fundamentals but a fairly limited ground game and not a ton of power by heavyweight standards. That’s served him well in past short-notice fights, but this one being five rounds could be an issue.

This is just the second fight at heavyweight for Johnny Walker, who had an extended run at light heavyweight where he went 8-7-1 with seven stoppage victories. His chin was ultimately his undoing at 205, but how much of that was due to his reportedly massive weight cut remains to be seen. He’s a dynamic finisher who should have a considerable speed edge over most heavyweights, especially those who are primarily strikers, like Cortes-Acosta. Walker is also the more skilled grappler but will likely be giving up somewhere around 20 lbs here, which could limit his potential to grapple offensively.

Cortes-Acosta is the deserving favorite as the more proven heavyweight with the more trustworthy chin, but for tournaments (and DFS in general), I prefer Walker. Any win from him should get him in the optimal at his salary, while the favorite would need either a quick finish or a ton of striking volume. While neither of those is out of reach, in a short-notice, five-round fight, I prefer the lighter, faster man. I’m worried about his chin, but the move up in weight class could help that.

For cash games, I’ve landed on some builds where I fade this fight entirely and some with just Walker. The floor for both men is extremely low, and if you’re confident in either side, it makes sense – but I prefer to try to beat my opponents with other spots. Most of the ownership in cash will be on Cortes-Acosta, so fading the fight is effectively a bet on Walker anyway, which I’m happy to make.

The Easy Chalk

Nina Milosevic ($9,500)

There are a few fighters we could go with here, as we have our typical Apex card full of lopsided lines. The obvious choice is Nina Milosevic, who takes on Priscila Cachoeira ($6,700) in what amounts to a showcase fight for the Serbian prospect.

Milosevic debuted in Serbia this summer, defeating Hailey Cowan by first-round knockout to run her overall record to 9-1. Her lone loss was a split decision in her pro debut, and she’s finished six of her nine professional wins. The UFC clearly sees something in her, as Cowan and Cachoeira have a combined 5-12 record (not counting Cowan’s loss to Milosevic).

Cachoeira has had her moments in the promotion thanks to her aggressive style but has lost five of her last six, with four of those losses coming inside the distance. “Zombie Girl” has some power but is among the worst defensive fighters in the modern era. She’s absorbed more than seven significant strikes per minute while also giving up plenty of takedowns to fighters inclined to pursue them.

Milosevic is -250 to get a stoppage and could probably grab some takedowns if she needs them, giving her plenty of upside. As a more than -500 favorite, she’s also fairly safe, making her a great choice for contests of all types.

The Upside Plays

Mantas Kondratavicius ($9,300)

My other favorite high-end play is another fighter making their second UFC appearance after an impressive 2026 debut, Mantas Kondratavicius. The Lithuanian needed a decision in his first win but landed two takedowns, a knockdown, and 75 significant strikes in the fight, good for over 100 DraftKings points. That was after a first-round knockout on the Contender Series in 2025 – the same episode where fellow UFC Vegas 124 fighter Murtazali Magomedov earned a contract.

This time, Kondratavicius draws Andre Petroski ($6,900), who in many ways resembles Cachoeira stylistically. His offensive weapon of choice is his grappling, but he’s equally vulnerable defensively. Petroski has lost three straight after starting his UFC career 8-2, with two of those losses coming by knockout. He was dropped in the other loss in that span and also infamously knocked himself out on a takedown attempt by headbutting his opponent’s hip.

All of which is to say his chin is a major issue, and a dangerous striker like Kondratavicius is likely to find it. The -300 favorite is -190 to pick up a knockout, with his presence or absence in the optimal lineup likely coming down to when the knockout happens. I’ll take my chances that it’s early enough – or comes with enough significant strikes if it’s later – to get him there. With Petroski also taking this on short notice, it’s hard to see the Philly native having the gas tank to keep wrestling long enough to stay safe.

The Value Play

Mitch Raposo ($7,200)

With all but two fights on the card favored to end inside the distance – and those two outliers both featuring traditionally low-scoring women as the underdogs – finding cheap options on this slate is somewhat difficult. I’m taking a stab at Mitch Raposo, who has gone to a split decision in both of his UFC losses.

Raposo also needed a split in his most recent win, over the late Allan Nascimento, which at least suggests he’s likely to keep things close against Marcos Degli ($9,000) this time around. Degli is making his official UFC debut after picking up a second-round submission on this year’s Contender Series as a -400 or so favorite.

The fact that Degli got taken down by Paris Moran, one of the lower-level “prospects” on the show, was enough for me to downgrade him despite his win. He’s also much better at getting up after being taken down than he is at stopping takedowns, which provides a path for Raposo to pick up some points even in a loss.

While I’m slightly worried that Degli becomes the first man to knock out Raposo, in the smaller Apex cage, I’ll take my chances on the wrestler, especially at his price point.

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The Contrarian Choice

Gabriel Lorenco ($7,800)

Outside of the main event, we have another short-notice heavyweight booking, with Gabriel Lorenco losing his original opponent, Alvin Hines, who has been replaced by Thomas Petersen ($8,400).

There are some parallels to the main event, in that the favored Petersen, like Cortes-Acosta, primarily relies on decisions to pick up wins, though he’s a grappler rather than a striker. Unlike the main event, where both fighters signed on at the last minute, Lorenco has a full camp for this one – which means Petersen might not have the gas tank to beat him over 15 minutes, especially if his plan is to wrestle.

Like Walker, Lorenco is the lighter and faster fighter, and he’s competed as low as middleweight in his career. He probably should fight at 205 based on his size but arguably has an easier path to the rankings in a thin heavyweight division. Lorenco is fresh off a knockout win as an underdog on the Contender Series and has a golden opportunity to pick up another against a fighter who has been finished thrice in his last five fights.

With the line moving towards Petersen, most of the field will likely shy away from Lorenco, but the ceiling is clearly there, making him an excellent contrarian tournament play. I wouldn’t even be opposed to using him in cash games if his price tag fits the rest of your lineup construction.

The Swing Fight

Murtazali Magomedov ($8,200) vs. Jose Delano ($8,000)

Perhaps the best fight on the card is unfortunately buried on the prelims, as two high-level featherweight prospects meet surprisingly early in their careers. Both Murtazali Magomedov and Jose Delano are 2025 Contender Series graduates who are now 1-0 in the UFC – but one of them will suffer their first UFC loss this weekend.

This is a bit of a matchup between a striker and a grappler, with Magomedov as the grappler. His UFC debut was a highlight-reel twister submission, which he picked up in just 77 seconds of fight time. He’s 11-0 as a pro fighter with five knockouts and six submissions and went 7-0 as an amateur with two GAMMA tournament championships.

Delano, at 30, is stretching the definition of “prospect” but comes into the fight 17-3 overall with just one loss since 2015. Both of his wins in the Octagon came via decision, but he’s averaged over eight significant strikes per minute, so he can clearly score fantasy points even without a stoppage. However, he was taken down twice on the Contender Series, a bad sign now that he’s facing a much tougher grappler.

As (almost) always, I’m siding with the grappler here, despite the line moving slightly against him. However, Delano is the better value on paper, since he’s now the slight favorite, with plenty of upside in his own right. Given the pricing dynamics, the winner here almost certainly makes the optimal lineup, so loading up on both would be wise.

I was glad that Sean Zerillo agreed with my read on Magomedov, though, as we discussed on our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast: (Coming Soon)

Pictured: Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Photo Credit: Imagn Images