NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 9

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

Here is the updated line data for each matchup in Week 9:

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

San Francisco 49ers OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards, #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL

It’s pretty clear that this is an elite spot for the “49ers running game” against the Raiders. San Francisco is favored by double digits in the highest-total game on the slate, with a team total north of 30 points in what should be an easy win. On top of that, they also have the best run-blocking matchup, with their top-five unit in adjusted line yards taking on the Raiders’ 31st-ranked defensive front.

Which 49ers running back benefits the most might be less clear, though. Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) is officially questionable after a brief injury scare in their Week 7 game (San Francisco had a Week 8 bye), and Kaelon Black ($5,500) has handled about 35% of the RB carries even with both men healthy.

Given the desire to preserve McCaffrey down the stretch and get Black live game reps, along with any potential lingering issues with CMC’s hamstring, it would make sense if we got a heavier dose of Black in a near-ideal matchup. I’ll have some McCaffrey, but it’s worth taking a few shots at Black, as he could be a tournament winner this week.

Detroit Lions OL (#2 in Adjusted Line Yards, #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Miami Dolphins DL

The thesis for the Lions run game is effectively identical to that for the 49ers. Like San Francisco, Detroit is a heavy favorite in a high-total game against a weak run defense. Also, like the 49ers, they have a star running back in Jahmyr Gibbs, who has faced a heavy workload and could see some carry competition from a backup in a game they should control easily.

That backup is Sione Vaki, who handled a season-high 11 carries last week against the Vikings, primarily when the Lions were trying to run out the clock late. Detroit won a close game against a great defense by just four points, and Vaki still managed 65 yards on the ground plus a five-yard catch. This week, we could see the Lions mix him in much sooner, assuming the Dolphins don’t put up much of a fight.

The Lions defense is bad enough (especially if Brian Branch misses the game with a concussion, with star linebacker Jack Campbell also likely lost for the year) that pairing Gibbs with a bring-back from Miami makes sense – though it’s hard to identify any particularly strong plays. Either way, I’ll have some Gibbs where I can afford him but will also mix in some Vaki as a contrarian tournament play.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Houston Texans DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Chargers OL

Houston trails only the blitz-happy Vikings in adjusted sack rate on the season, and they get to face a Chargers team with the second-worst adjusted sack rate offensively. Los Angeles has been a disaster offensively this season, with 23 sacks allowed, tied for second-most in the league. They also lead the league with 2.4 turnovers per game.

The Texans are pretty clearly the best spend-up option at D/ST. They’re favored by five in the lowest-total game on the slate, giving them a strong floor to go alongside their massive sack- and turnover-based upside. I don’t love spending up for defense, but it usually comes with moderate ownership, making this a solid spot for tournaments.

New Orleans Saints DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL

One reason the Texans might not be too popular is how obvious a value the Saints are. The Chargers are tied with a few teams for the second-most sacks taken in the league at 23. The Browns are in first by a mile at 33. While the Browns have been an average turnover team, the Saints could easily get there at their price point through sacks and keeping points off the board.

On top of all that, Deshaun Watson is likely out for Cleveland, as he’s currently in the concussion protocol. Shedeur Sanders probably isn’t much worse than Watson, but this would be his first regular-season start, and he has to be considered a downgrade if anything.

The Saints likely end up too popular for tournaments but are an obvious cash game option.

Picture: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff
Photo Credit: Imagn