NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 2

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

This week I’ll be debuting my data table, featuring the combined adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rates for every matchup. However, it’s important to note that this tells us very little in Week 1. Is the 49ers offensive line elite, or is the Rams defensive unit without Aaron Donald or a healthy Myles Garret just that bad? With one week of data, it’s impossible to say.

This table will get more predictive each week as the sample size grows, but especially starting in Week 5, when the data becomes fully matchup-adjusted at the source. I’ll continue to use the qualitative measures from Anderson and PFF until then. Here’s what Week 2’s matchups look like:

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Los Angeles Chargers OL (#4 in Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL (#24 PFF)

We’re faced with the difficult Week 2 decision of whether to trust our preseason evaluations or (over?)react to what we saw in Week 1. The Chargers are a good example of that. They were a heavy favorite in Week 1 but were only able to score 14 points against a Cardinals defense that was expected to be bad overall.

Some combination of poor offensive line play and Justin Herbert ($6,000) making poor decisions led to him taking three sacks and throwing an interception. Later in the season, we’ll be able to look at data like release time and pressure rate to try to parse out which it is – though it doesn’t much matter for DFS. Whether the sack is the “fault” of the QB or the protection, it still scores the same.

With all that said, the Chargers could be a great buy-low spot in Week 2. Fantasy players will be wary of Herbert after getting burned in Week 1, but the Raiders aren’t projecting as an especially tough defensive front, and I’m putting virtually no stock in their performance against an awful Browns team last week. That probably looks like going back to the well with Herbert and the passing game, but Omarion Hampton ($6,600) is also in play in what should be a positive game script.

Chicago Bears OL (#7 in Anderson’s Rankings) vs. Minnesota Vikings DL (#22 in PFF’s Rankings)

The Bears are on pace to fulfill their preseason goal of being the highest-scoring team in NFL history, dropping 59 points on the Panthers in Week 1. Caleb Williams ($6,800) had plenty of time to throw, as well as some rushing lanes, while the Bears rolled over a terrible Panthers defensive line. This week, they face a moderate step up against the Vikings, which PFF had ranked as the 22nd-best defensive line in the league coming into the season.

Minnesota looked better than that in Week 1, picking up four sacks and two turnovers against the Packers. However, Anderson had the Packers as the 28th-ranked offensive line before the season. That could lead to some regression for Minnesota’s defense since it faces a much better offensive line this week.

While it’s unfair to expect another 59-point game, I still like stacking the Bears’ passing attack alongside Williams, as the Vikings’ offense should be able to keep things competitive enough that Chicago is forced to throw. Chicago’s running game looks like a split backfield between D’Andre Swift ($6,300) and Kyle Monangai ($5,300), who split opportunities 19/12 last week, though we could see more Swift in closer game scripts, making him an interesting large-field tournament play.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles DL (#4 in PFF Rankings) vs. Tennessee Titans OL (#31 in Anderson’s Rankings)

The Titans managed just 10 points against the Jets in Week 1, and Cam Ward ($4,900) took three sacks against PFF’s 29th-ranked defensive front. Given our preseason expectations, that seems to confirm that the Titans’ offense is just that bad.

That could be a massive problem against Philadelphia ($3,700), which had a preseason top-five defensive line and is also a touchdown favorite in this matchup. They were somewhat disappointing in Week 1 against the Commanders, but that’s a much more talented overall offense.

Obviously, it’s always tough to pay $3,700 for a defensive unit, but given what we saw from some teams last week, it could be worth it. They’re a contrarian pay-up tournament play.

Tampa Bay Bucs DL (#11 in PFF Rankings) vs. Cleveland Browns OL (#32 in Anderson’s Rankings)

As promised last week, the second spot in “good defensive line matchups” will remain “whoever is playing the Browns,” at least until a QB change in Cleveland. The combination of the offensive line Anderson ranked worst and terrible play from Deshaun Watson ($4,500) means a weekly feast for opposing defenses, and this time it’s Tampa Bay’s ($3,600) turn.

Watson took five sacks (on just 27 dropbacks) last week while adding an interception, good for 13 overall DK points for the Jaguars’ defense. PFF has Tampa Bay rated similarly to Jacksonville (No. 11 vs. No. 9), so it’s reasonable to expect a broadly similar outcome here.

Our midweek projections have them .04 points shy of the top median projection for defenses, which could make paying up for them worthwhile. I’m not sure how unique a play they’ll be, but with that kind of upside, it might not matter.

Picture: Caleb Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn