Alec Pierce got an absolute bag this offseason. The free agent wide receiver got four years and $114M, the fifth most at the position behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Zay Flowers, and Chris Olave.
However, Pierce isn’t exactly being valued like those guys for fantasy purposes. JSN, London, Flowers, and Olave are all being drafted inside the top 15 at wide receiver, while Pierce is all the way down at WR38 on Underdog and WR41 on DraftKings.
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So, what gives? Did the Colts make a mistake by paying Pierce like a top-flight wide receiver, or are fantasy players making a mistake by not treating him as such? Let’s take a look at the case for and against Pierce before delivering the final verdict.
The Case For Pierce
Pierce broke out in a big way in 2025-26. He racked up career highs in every category across the board, and he was tied for 20th at receiver in terms of 0.5-PPR points per game.
Pierce makes his living as a big-play specialist. He had an uber-elite 20.0 aDOT last season, and he racked up 43% of the Colts’ air yards. He also had a 41% end zone share, despite a relatively pedestrian 18% target share. It resulted in an average of 11.9 yards per target, which was the second-best mark in the entire NFL.
For Pierce to justify his new contract, he’s going to have to make a larger impact in terms of target volume. The good news is that it’s definitely possible. The Colts traded away Michael Pittman this offseason, and he led the Colts’ receivers with 111 targets last year. Some of that volume will be absorbed by Tyler Warren and Josh Downs, but there is plenty of potential for Pierce’s role to grow as well.
Given his efficiency last season, more targets should result in more big plays. That makes him the perfect Best Ball candidate. Even if he’s still a bit inconsistent, there should be enough spike weeks to justify his modest price tag.
Finally, the news surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones has been positive out of training camp. He suffered an Achilles injury last year but has reportedly been “unimpeded” in summer workouts. It seems likely that Jones will be under center in Week 1, and the Colts were quietly an elite offensive team with Jones at the helm last year.
The Case Against Pierce
While the removal of Pittman certainly can’t hurt Pierce, it might not help him much, either. The two players operated in different areas of the field, with Pierce serving as the deep threat and Pittman working in the short and intermediate areas. Those targets align much closer with Downs and Warren, so they could see much more significant boosts.
It’s also possible that Pierce’s impact is felt more in real life than in fantasy. Having a deep threat that the defense always has to account for can be a really strong decoy. If opposing defenses scheme to take away the deep ball, it opens up the underneath area for everyone else. DeSean Jackson specialized in that, and the end result was a bunch of good-but-not-great fantasy campaigns.
Additionally, the Colts are a very dangerous rushing team. They had a Pass Rate Over Expectation of -0.6 last year, and Jonathan Taylor led the league in carries and rushing touchdowns. Without Pittman, it’s possible they lean into the running game even more.
It’s also worth noting that Pierce’s best production didn’t come with Jones under center. He averaged 9.1 fantasy points in Jones’ 12 full contests, compared to 13.0 without him. That means Jones being at full strength might not be as big of a plus as it seems on paper.
Pierce will always be a strong big-play threat. He’s led the league in yards per reception in back-to-back seasons. However, that may ultimately be all that he is. He could possibly turn in another season like he did last year, but that might be his ceiling.
Verdict
Pierce’s contract was polarizing. It was a lot of money for a player without a ton of proven success, but I’m a believer in his talent. Even if he is just a deep threat, he should be one of the best in the business in that department.
For fantasy purposes, I think the positives far outweigh the negatives. Maybe Pierce can show a more diverse skill set and handle more opportunities now that Pittman is in Pittsburgh. He certainly has the potential to set a new career high in targets, and even just a couple of extra looks per game could pay dividends with his efficiency.
Even if he doesn’t do much more than he did last year, he’s already proven that he can pay off this price tag. That means there’s not much downside to Pierce at his current ADP.
Our expert rankers also see the value with Pierce. Sean Koerner has him ranked 76th overall, while Chris Gimino has him at 75. He’s typically coming off the board after pick No. 80, resulting in one of the larger discrepancies in this price range.
Ideally, Pierce is drafted as a WR4 for your fantasy team. If he can develop into a more complete fantasy receiver, he’s a potential league-winner. If not, he’ll always have some spike-week upside to fall back on. I’m very happy to take a flyer on him in any format.
Pictured: Alec Pierce
Photo Credit: Imagn
