Rams at 49ers
The Rams-49ers divisional matchup is the late Monday night game this week — they play at 10:20pm ET — and thus is not included in the DraftKings or FanDuel large-field millionaire tournaments. The Rams are currently 2.5-point road favorites in a game with a total of 44 points.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB — Case Keenum
Keenum certainly won’t be on anyone’s radar: He has the lowest-projected median, floor, ceiling, and Plus/Minus of all QBs in Week 1. However, he can be a fine game-manager: In his five games last year, he was sacked on only 3.1 percent of his drop backs. The Rams passed on only 52.4 percent of their plays last year, the seventh-lowest mark in the league. That number dipped to 45.6 percent during Keenum’s five games, although he did throw a season-high 37 times against these 49ers in Week 17.
RB — Todd Gurley
Gurley is the encapsulation of every RB heuristic you’ve ever heard. Out of all RBs last year, he had the highest correlation (tied with Mark Ingram, actually) with his D/ST at 0.62. He was very valuable and highly-owned across his 12 games last year. He boasted the highest average DK ownership among RBs with 10 starts:
And that was accentuated when he was a favorite — another typical RB heuristic.
He is a 2.5-point favorite this week and has a dynamite matchup: Last year the 49ers ranked 23rd against the run (per Fantasy Outsider’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and they allowed a 50.0 percent success rate, which was the third-worst mark in the league. Their +3.5 Plus/Minus allowed to RBs last year was the third-worst mark behind Jacksonville’s and Philadelphia’s. Gurley gon’ eat.
RB — Benny Cunningham
Although Cunningham was on the field a lot for the Rams last year — he was in on 71.3 percent of the Rams’ third-down plays (fifth-best among RBs last year) per NFL.com’s Matt Harmon — being on the field did not translate to fantasy relevance. He averaged two receptions per game and owned a 7.2 percent market share of the Rams’ rushing yards. There are some third-down NFL backs who have standalone value, but Benny isn’t one of them.
WR — Tavon Austin
Overall, Austin was a solid DFS asset last year:
With Gurley on the field, he was a much better asset:
Austin’s receiving splits are very interesting: Although he owned a 16.1 percent market share of the Rams’ receiving yards last year, he owned a 45.5 percent MS of their receiving touchdowns. That is the highest mark of all receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Rams scored an NFL-low 11 receiving touchdowns last year. While Austin is a mediocre WR play, he is the best double-dip candidate on a weekly basis.
WR — Kenny Britt
Britt led the Rams in receiving last year . . . with a 36-681-3 line. He was incredibly efficient with Keenum throwing him the ball, but you can see the problem (which is a problem for the whole Rams passing offense): Sample size.
Britt is only $3,900 on DraftKings and boasts a Projected Plus/Minus of +1.2, but his projected ceiling (13.2) and floor (5.2) are just too low to warrant exposure.
WR — Brian Quick
The negatives about Britt and Austin? They apply to Quick: In his 13 games with the Rams last year, he owned a 3.5 percent market share of their receiving yards — and it’s not like he had much competition. Rookie Pharoh Cooper has been ruled out for Week 1, so Quick should have all the No. 3 wideout work to himself, which . . . isn’t all that exciting.
TE — Lance Kendricks
With Jared Cook gone, Kendricks — a former second-round All-American from Wisconsin — is finally in line to be his team’s starting tight end. There are some positive signs here: Keenum, in his five-game sample as the Rams starting QB, threw 28 percent of his passes to his tight ends. That is the third-highest rate among QBs starting this week behind Marcus Mariota’s and Cam Newton’s marks. Kendricks is near-minimum price on both DK and FD ($3,200 and $4,700) and is going up against a 49ers team that allowed 1.1 FD points over expectation to tight ends last year. He’s a risky punt play for sure, but at near-zero percent ownership at a position that has incredible volatility, it could be a worthwhile risk in a large-field GPP.
San Francisco 49ers
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB — Blaine Gabbert
As Matthew Freedman pointed out in his Week 1 QB Breakdown, Chip Kelly quarterbacks have been valuable as DFS assets:
We almost certainly know that Gabbert isn’t a good quarterback. In his eight games last season, he averaged a putrid 5.7 ANYPA and 3.7 percent touchdown rate. He is projected for a ceiling of 24.7 points, which is behind only the projections of Case Keenum and Trevor Siemian. Further, he owns a -2.4 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the second-worst mark of the week.
RB — Carlos Hyde
The Rams defense ranked in the top 10 against both the run and the pass last year. Hyde had an impressive rushing success rate of 48.7 percent last season, which is one of the best marks among starting RBs this week. He also has shown success playing as an underdog because, well, the 49ers were dogs in every game he played last season.
This is an incredibly tough matchup for Hyde, but that does mean that he’ll be very low-owned. If you’re going to roster him, do so on FanDuel where he is $6,200 and boasts a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
RB — Shaun Draughn
Draughn could theoretically be a third-down pass-catching back for Kelly, but it remains to be seen 1) just how valuable that role is and 2) whether Draughn is actually any good. He averaged a miserable 3.5 yards per carry and 2.5 yards per target last year. He had a stretch of double-digit DK weeks, but that was as the lead back with Hyde out. Now that Hyde is back, Draughn certainly isn’t rosterable even in a game where they’ll likely be down. If that makes you sad, don’t worry: The 49ers should be down a lot this year.
WR — Torrey Smith
Smith averaged an impressive 20.1 yards per reception last season, which led the NFL among WRs who saw at least 20 snaps per game. However, that was on a total of 33 receptions, which was the lowest mark of his five-year career. Gabbert threw to his wide receivers on 50.7 percent of his passes — the fifth-lowest mark of QBs this week — and he threw to RBs on 27.7 percent of his passes (the second-highest mark). Smith is the clear-cut receiving option in a Chip Kelly offense, but it’s very hard to determine what that is worth. He is cheap — $4,900 on DK and $5,600 on FD — but perhaps wait a week to take a risk on his upside?
WR — Quinton Patton
Patton will start opposite Smith. He had 30 receptions last year in 16 games after combining for just six total in his first two years in the league. He owned a 10.8 percent market share of the 49ers’ receiving yards in 2015 and a 10.9 percent share of their targets. He’s the No. 2 receiver, but that’s not saying much.
WR — Jeremy Kerley
The 49ers listed Kerley as a starting receiver and he will play in the slot. He was acquired by San Francisco last week after Bruce Ellington was sent to the IR. Kerley is somewhat interesting, as he’s also going to return punts for the 49ers. He is $3,000 on DK and $4,700 on FD. Unfortunately, because salaries were released weeks ago, he’s only available as a Lions receiver. He seems unlikely to score fantasy points there.
TE — Vance McDonald
McDonald played very well in the preseason, finishing with 94 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. He certainly has the size at 6’4” and 267 lbs. and was a very productive red-zone receiver when given opportunities: He had three touchdowns inside the 10-yard line last year on a 42.9 percent RZ TD rate. Of course that efficiency will regress if the opportunities come, but the point is that McDonald has shown that he’s a capable receiver. He boasted a 66.7 percent catch rate last season.
He’s very risky and has low projections — he has a projected ceiling of only 8.2 FD points this week — but the options are limited in the SF passing game and McDonald could surprise if the 49ers somehow manage to luck into a red-zone trip.
