Raiders at Saints
This game has a 51-point implied Vegas total. The Saints are one-point home favorites, implied to score 26 points. The Raiders are implied to score 25 points as the road underdogs. The game will take place at the Superdome, so weather will not be a factor.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr was on a top-10 pace the first half of the season. Of 37 players with 200-plus pass attempts last year, Carr finished 19th in Passer Rating (91.1) and 23rd in completion percentage (61.1 percent). Last year, the average Passer Rating was 88.53, and the Saints defense surrendered an average 123.91 passer rating while at home (104.28 on the road). Carr has the third-best rating according to the Bales Player Model for both DraftKings & FanDuel. He also has the fourth-highest ceiling and the eighth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback on FanDuel.
RB – Latavius Murray
Last year, Murray had 307 total touches, fourth in the NFL last year, and this offseason the Raiders signed PFF’s No. 3 run-blocking offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele. Head coach Jack Del Rio will rely more heavily on the power run game and less on the passing attack this season, so even though Murray performed below expectations last year he will get more than enough volume. He received 81.8 percent of his team’s runs inside the five-yard line last season. Even with DeAndre Washington threatening his target volume in the passing game, Murray will be the clear three-down and goal-line back against the Saints, who were ninth in the league in red-zone rush defense, allowing touchdowns on only nine of 62 attempts, but they did allow the second-most rushing yards (2,071) on the season. Murray holds the fourth-highest rating in the Bales Player Model with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
RB – DeAndre Washington
Washington was taken in the fifth round to be Murray’s complement in the passing game, but he has the frame and ability to be a workhorse in his own right. He will start the year as a third-down back. In comparable spots, running backs with similar salaries and floor and ceiling projections have delivered a +0.58 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a 43.1 percent Consistency (per our Trends tool). He’s clearly a flyer this week in DFS.
WR – Amari Cooper
Averaging 10 targets per game through the first four weeks of the season, Cooper was hindered by a foot injury thereafter but still had 72 receptions in his rookie year. According to our Matchups page, he will primarily line up opposite Delvin Breaux in Week 1, PFF’s 10th rated No. 10 coverage corner . . . who actually gave up a league-leading eight touchdowns last season. The biggest concern with Cooper is still his lack of red-zone involvement, as he saw zero targets from inside the 20 in the first seven weeks of 2015 but ultimately accumulated seven (third on his team). Our ownership projections have Cooper at 21-25 percent and he is a solid play on both formats, but he’s especially rosterable on FanDuel, where he boasts a 98 percent Bargain Rating at $7100 and is the third-rated player in the Bales Player Model.
WR – Michael Crabtree
In a career resurgence, Crabtree finished last year 11th in total targets (146), 18th in target share (24.3%), and 11th in total touchdowns (9), leading the team in red-zone targets (13). According to our Matchups page, Crabtree will lineup against P.J. Williams, a second-year third-round pick who missed all of last season due to a torn hamstring. The Saints defense gave up 284 passing yards per game last year, second to only the Giants, and they also gave up an NFL-record 45 touchdowns receiving. Crabtree could be a nice leverage play on Cooper in guaranteed prize pools, with a top-15 rating in the Tournament Model and projected five to eight percent ownership on FanDuel, the platform on which he boasts a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Seth Roberts
An undrafted receiver who contributed increasingly as 2015 progressed, Roberts was out-snapped by Cooper by 232 snaps, but Roberts will had more red-zone targets (nine to seven) on the season. He has some volatile, hidden potential. Per Football Outsiders, the Saints were the sixth-worst team last year against No. 3 and other supplementary wide receivers.
TE – Clive Walford
Despite horrendous play at cornerback last year, teams targeted wide receivers against the Saints just 50.7 percent of the time, a rate second-to-last in the NFL. Why? Because offenses were content to beat them up with their tight ends. The Saints gave up 11 touchdowns and an average of 80.6 yards per game to tight ends, both of which are league highs. Walford wasn’t great as a rookie, but he showed some promise near the end of the season . . . and the Saints are just really bad.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
Last year, Brees was a man possessed when playing in the Superdome.
Adding +9.71 Plus/Minus at home, Brees played lights out in New Orleans, surpassing 300-plus passing yards six different times. Per our Player Models, Brees leads all quarterbacks in projected ceiling with 36.7 points. With so many great plays this week at the quarterback position, Brees could potentially be underowned. We’re projecting him at five to eight percent.
RB – Mark Ingram
Only Latavius Murray and Jamaal Charles have more Pro Trends than the eight that Ingram is currently slated for on DraftKings. After averaging 1.4 targets per game during his first four seasons, Ingram jumped up to 5.0, providing Brees a regular outlet out of the backfield. When healthy last year, Ingram saw 67.9 percent of the team’s rushing yards. Only Murray had a higher rate. The Raiders rush defense ranked 30th in FO’s DVOA last year against opposing running backs.
RB – C.J. Spiller
Spiller was disappointing in his efficiency and raw production last year, but he has a chance to contribute this year. The Raiders allowed the seventh-most receptions to opposing running backs last season, and Spiller saw some heavy usage with the first-team offense this preseason. It’s not inconceivable to think that he could rotate with Ingram more than most people expect.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Despite being a former first-round pick, Cooks has yet to see over 20 percent of the team’s target market share in any season. Cooks moved around the formation last year, and will probably continue to do so in Week 1, but he should still see a heavy dose of the 6-foot-3-inch Sean Smith, per our Matchups page. After shutting down half the field for Kansas City last year, Smith joined Oakland via free agency.
Cooks should see some high ownership with the public gravitating toward the high over/under for this game. He’s currently projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on FanDuel. Cooks did especially well last season at home, per the RotoViz Game Splits App:
Sean Payton will need to game plan to move Cooks around the formation to keep him from being locked down by Smith, but he’s definitely still in a good spot.
WR – Willie Snead
Snead was a revelation last season, outproducing Cooks at times despite being an undrafted second-year player getting his first NFL action. He also thrived at home, joining Cook as two of the five heavily-targeted receivers in high-scoring home matchups this week.
Adding +2.68 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, these receivers are enticing, although Snead does have a tough matchup. When he lines up outside, Snead is likely to be facing David Amerson, who worked out spectacularly in Oakland after being jettisoned from Washington. Amerson ranked as PFF’s 14th-best outside cornerback last year.
WR – Michael Thomas
The Ohio State rookie is slated to play primarily in the slot. At 6-foot-3-inches, Thomas could be an appealing target for Brees. At the same time, it’s hard to bet an a rookie to produce in his first NFL game when he wasn’t a big producer in college. He does offer an 83 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Thomas (ankle) is questionable for Week 1 after tweaking his ankle in Thursday’s practice, but he’s still expected to play.
WR – Brandon Coleman
Coleman may have seen his ship sail last year after Snead emerged and New Orleans invested high draft capital in Thomas. Coleman provides great size at 6-foot-6-inches and 220 pounds, but he will be far down the pecking order, even in the red zone.
TE – Coby Fleener
While Thomas has been drawing rave reviews, the opposite can be said for Fleener, who has been dubbed “a work in progress” by Payton. But at least he draws a terrific matchup. Oakland last season allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the third-highest Plus/Minus to tight ends. Since 2010, tight ends have accounted for 45.8 percent of the Saints’ red-zone passing touchdowns, and 9.3 percent of Fleener’s receptions have gone for scores during his career. At $5,400 on FanDuel, Fleener is priced to exceed expectations even if he doesn’t score a touchdown.
