Last week’s tournament finally ended after 54 holes of wind, brutal 3-putts, tilt, and playoff implosions. However, there is no need to dwell on the past, as we have a great tournament ahead of us this week. The tour will stop in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship, as most golfers will look to tune up for the highly anticipated Players Championship next week. The Quail Hollow Club is a fairly straight-forward Par-72 set up that will play around 7,500 yards with two Par 3s and two Par 5s on each side.
Quail Hollow is most known for its finishing three holes, popularly referred to as the “Green Mile.” Compiled of two Par 4s and one Par 3, the finishing holes present difficulty in their length with water hazards being prevalent on each hole. My model this week will remain fairly stock, with the biggest change going towards targeting both Recent and Long-Term Driving Distance. Without wasting much more time, let’s get into a sample of course history by looking at the top-25 finishers dating back to 2011.
There are a few repeat offenders when looking at some past top-25 finishes. Here are those players who have finished in the top 25 at least three times over the past five years. Stewart Cink would have been included in this list, but he has withdrawn from the tournament.
I know you guys see the big dog atop that list. Rory has amazing course history here, but we will get to that in a bit. Actually, let’s just jump right into it now.
$12,800 – $9,000
Note that Dustin Johnson is among the several players that have withdrawn this week.
Rory McIlroy ($12,800) is the top-priced golfer this week and is sure to be one of the most popular plays. He has stellar course history, winning twice with five top-10 finishes and one missed cut in his last six starts. He hasn’t played since The Masters, where he finished T10 after a solid showing at the World Match Play the week prior. He has the distance to shorten a lot of the holes this week, but his salary makes rostering him in cash games a difficult task.
Adam Scott ($10,600) is a great play as well. He is an excellent ball striker and is super long off the tee, as shown in his Long-Term Driving Distance of 308.2. He has cooled off a bit since his back-to-back wins three months ago, but Scott is an elite talent and warrants consideration any week.
However, I am unlikely to roster Scott because of how interested I am in Justin Rose ($10,000). That’s right – I am going back to the Justin Rose well this week. He burned plenty of us last week when he appeared to be in a dream spot with his recent form and solid course history. He fits what I am looking for at the Wells Fargo Championship – long off the tee, hits over 70% of his greens in regulation, and has decent accuracy. If the upsetting performance at the Zurich Classic is going to keep people away from him this week, then he makes for an excellent tournament option at Quail Hollow.
J.B. Holmes ($9,100) is popping at the bottom of this price range. He is incredibly long off the tee and has the third-best Recent Adjusted Round Score going into this week. He won here in 2014 before missing the cut the following year. However, he is coming into this tournament in excellent form, making the cut in every tournament that he has played this season. Note that he is projected to be battling some severe winds, so it is important to monitor the forecast before giving him the go-ahead this week.
$8,900 – $7,000
There are two guys in this price range that pop well ahead of the rest. The first one is Charles Howell III ($8,100). His course history is average and won’t be weighted more than a tie breaker for me this week. What I am looking at, however, is his Long-Term Driving Distance and G.I.R, which are both contributing factors to him having the second-best Recent Adj. Round Score in this price range. He has also been incredibly consistent this season, which I outlined in this week’s PGA Plays of the Week.
Daniel Berger ($8,400) is nearly equal to Howell when looking at their long-term statistics, but has seen over a 10-yard decrease in driving distance recently. It has been a give-and-take with Berger, as his decrease in distance has significantly increased his accuracy off the tee, but I like Howell’s distance much more at a $300 discount. Berger will be a play that I will likely avoid, despite being rated well in my model this week.
Brendan Steele ($7,200) is one of the longer players near the bottom of this price range, with an average driving distance over 300 yards. He finished ninth here last year, but is coming into this week in spotty form. His T13 at the Texas Open was preceded by two straight missed cuts. His poor Recent Adj. Round Score is significantly lower than his long-term form, and causes enough concern to damage his cash-game eligibility. His putting and scrambling look to be what has been hurting him recently, but his distance off the tee hasn’t left his side. Awarding him a roster spot will be banking on him returning to form, which is a move that I typically reserve for tournaments only.
Kevin Chappell ($7,900) is the cheapest player in the field with at least 2% Vegas implied odds to win. He has missed one cut in his last four tournaments, but finished at least top 10 in the other three. The concern with Chappell is that his solid recent form has come with a decreased driving distance, which knocks him down in my rankings a bit, especially with known-bomber Jamie Lovemark ($7,900) at the same price. I like Lovemark for all the same reasons as last week, and though his performance late on Monday was upsetting, his 309.5 Long-Term Driving Distance and solid recent play fits exactly what I am looking for at Quail Hollow.
$6,900 – $5,300
Jhonattan Vegas ($6,400) is the top-rated player in my model of players under $7,000. He is certainly in play, fitting the mold with an impressive Long-Term Driving Distance of 301 and G.I.R of 67.1%, but I am more interested in Luke List ($6,900) as a pivot off Vegas this week. Vegas is cheaper than List and coming off a fifth-place finish last week, while List is coming off a missed cut. I think more people will gravitate towards Vegas due to the difference in their performance at the Zurich Classic, but I am not going to hold List’s missed cut last week against him due to the abnormal weather conditions. Also in List’s favor is a slate-high 312.5 Long-Term Driving Distance. I have been off him recently, but that is sure to change this week.
Ollie Schniederjans ($6,400) is intriguing due to his Recent Adjusted Round Score being the best among players below $7,000. He has no course history though and has missed the cut in both of his most recent PGA Tour events. Since then, he has been playing well overseas, albeit against much easier competition. His 307.5 Long-Term Driving Distance and Recent Adj. Round score is enough to warrant a closer look from me as a salary-relief play this week.
This should be a fun tournament this weekend, and hopefully we get four rounds of rain-free play. The wind is looking like it might play a factor, and needs to be monitored when creating your lineups. One week from The Players, this should be a fun tournament to get the juices flowing before what is my second-favorite tournament of the year. I was going to leave you with some highlights from Rory McIlroy’s record-setting round at Quail Hollow, but I stumbled across a cool video about the Green Mile. I would love to play the 17th hole here one day (I would hit it in the water).
Good luck this weekend!
