The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
What You Need To Know
The European Tour returns to the Swiss Alps for the Omega European Masters played at Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club for the 70th consecutive season. The tournament is not only played on one of the shortest courses on Tour at just 6,848 yards, but it’s also played at almost 5,000 feet above sea level. Welcome to the Coors Field of the Euro Tour: Balls here can fly.
The course is a Par-70 with five Par-3 holes and three Par-5s, two of which should be reachable in two swings by even the shortest of hitters. The driveable Par-4 seventh hole should yield its fair share of birdies and eagles this week but will also punish players who miss right.
Scores get low here. The winning scores have been as low as 21-under par and no worse than 16-under par during the last seven years. Current Masters Champion Danny Willett won here last year at 17-under.
The Field
Playing this week with the defending champion Willett is last year’s runner-up Matt Fitzpatrick. Fellow Englishmen Tyrell Hatton (who finished third here last season), Lee Westwood, Chris Wood, and Andy Sullivan will also be teeing it up in the mountains this week.
Some other notable names in the field include Americans Bryson DeChambeau and Stewart Cink as well as Austrian Bernd Wiesberger and crowd favorite Miguel Angel Jimenez, the 2010 Omega European Masters Champion.
This week will also mark the return to action of Andrew “Beef” Johnston.
Greens In Regulation
You’ll want to focus on players who can pepper the greens with approach shots. Four of the last five winners at Crans-sur-Sierre have finished the week ranked first or second in Greens in Regulation.
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Fitzpatrick leads this salary tier in Long-term Greens in Regulation (GIR) at 71.8 percent and ranks third overall. His 71.9 percent Recent GIR is nearly identical and demonstrates his consistent ability in this area.
Fitzpatrick’s 70.2 Long-term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is the sixth-best mark in the field and his 69.7 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA) is eighth. His 69.9 Course Adj Rd Score is sixth among golfers who have made more than one start here, but he did miss the cut in 2014.
Fitzpatrick has missed five of his last seven cuts. That fact, combined with his salary (the fourth-highest in the field), could make him an excellent contrarian tournament play this week.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 – $8,900
The Belgian Bomber Nicolas Colsaerts ranks second in the field and first in the mid-priced tier with a 72.7 percent LT GIR. His Recent GIR has fallen off a bit, dropping to 69.4 percent in his last two tournaments.
They don’t call him the bomber for nothing: Colsaerts’ 305.9-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) is third in the field. His 71 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for 14th, as is his 70.8 Course Adj Rd Score.
Golfers with comparable decreases in their Recent GIR percentages have begrudgingly relinquished a Plus/Minus of -4.37.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
With a 77.8 percent Recent GIR, Benjamin Hebert ranks fourth overall and second among the value plays. His 70.6 percent LT GIR is eighth.
Hebert has been playing well lately, with two top-15 finishes in his last six starts. His 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for third overall this week, and his Recent Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) of 16 ranks seventh among golfers who have played more than one tournament the past six weeks.
Players with comparable salaries and recent metrics have produced a +4.49 Plus/Minus, while 32 of 51 in the sample have either met or exceeded their salary-based expectations.
Course Adjusted Round Score
This tournament has been played here at Crans-sur-Sierre for 70 years and the course hasn’t seen any significant upgrades since 1999. There are a ton of players in the field who have played the course at least four times, making our Course Adjusted Round Score an extremely valuable tool this week.
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Willett, who happens to be last year’s winner, maintains a 69.5 Course Adj Rd Score, second-best among golfers who have made at least four starts here. Since 2012, he has finished no worse than 26th, with second- and fifth-place finishes to go along with his win.
His 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score leads the field, but his current form has been shaky, and his Recent Adj Rd Score has climbed a full stroke, up to 70.3.
Willett’s 68.7 percent LT GIR ranks 19th overall but has risen to 72.2 percent the past six weeks, good for 11th in Recent GIR.
If there were ever a course designed for Willett to regain the form he showed between February and May of this season, this would be it.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 – $8,900
The most interesting golfer in the world, Jimenez has a 69.3 Course Adj Rd Score, the best in the slate among golfers with four or more starts here. He missed the cut in his most recent attempt in 2014, but prior to that he finished no worse than 11th in six starts and had four top-five finishes, including a win in 2010.
He’s very old, but he did finish 18th in an elite field of mostly younger men at The Open Championship in July, and then he followed that up with third- and second-place finishes on the Senior Tour.
Jimenez’s 73.6 percent Recent GIR is tied for ninth and his 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score is eighth overall.
Golfers with similar Course and Recent Adj Rd Scores have previously generated a +1.95 Plus/Minus with 55.2 percent Consistency.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Edoardo Molinari holds the third-best Course Adj Rd Score (at 69.6) among golfers who have made at least four starts here. He has four top-15 finishes in his last five starts at Crans-sur-Sierre, including a second-place finish in 2010.
Molinari has accumulated a 66.7 percent Recent GIR in his last three tournaments, but his 59.1 percent LT GIR is freaking frightening. It’s the 11th-worst score in the field.
Molinari’s 17.5 Recent Adj Bird Avg ranks third among golfers with more than one start in the last six weeks and is perhaps an indicator that Eduardo is getting things going just in time for one of his favorite courses. He has made six straight cuts and 10 of 11 since April.
Molinari is a sharp play in both cash games and as a low-priced member of a solid stars-and-scrubs tournament roster.
Good luck!
