Today, I’m going to examine how much of an edge can be gained by picking on pitchers and catchers who allow the most stolen bases. I’ll be pulling most of the data from ESPN’s stats and will then apply those stats to some Fantasy Labs data. I’m going to start with 2014 data just because the sample size is larger and then I will look at 2015. So during 2014, here were the teams that allowed the most stolen bases against:
| Team | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Padres | 116 | 25.64 |
| Phillies | 115 | 28.57 |
| Cubs | 114 | 25 |
| Tigers | 111 | 31.48 |
And the teams that allowed the fewest:
| Team | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Cardinals | 54 | 34.94 |
| Nationals | 60 | 37.5 |
| Royals | 69 | 29.59 |
| Reds | 71 | 34.86 |
The first thing that is interesting to me is that the caught stealing % doesn’t seem to really line up with total stolen bases against. Maybe it’s not really clear from the two above tables, but for example, the Twins only caught 18.03% stealing and allowed 100 stolen bases (10th in league), while the Pirates caught 31.41% and allowed 107 (7th in the league). The numbers jump all over the place and if you would like to see the complete list, here it is: ESPN Stolen Base Stats
So somewhat surprisingly, it doesn’t appear that caught stealing % influences total steals over the course of a season to a very strong degree. It’s important to remember that we are looking at stats on a team level right now, so perhaps once we get down to an individual level, we will start noticing some stronger correlations. Here are the starting pitchers who allowed the most stolen bases in 2014:
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Scott Feldman | 35 | 17 |
| Jered Weaver | 25 | 17 |
| Drew Hutchison | 22 | 20 |
The first thing that immediately becomes actionable, in my opinion, is that Scott Feldman’s numbers are off the charts. Just based on the sheer amount of stolen bases he has allowed compared to anyone else in the league, I’m going to start considering playing speed guys anytime Feldman is on the mound. No one else was even really close to his level of ineptitude in this category last season.
Another thing I notice is that the pitchers who are victimized by steals the most frequently all have fairly poor numbers in caught stealing %, which is different than what we saw on a team level. The worst in the league was Phil Hughes, who caught only 7% of steal attempts, but anything 20% or lower ranked in the bottom 10 in this category.
Here are the pitchers who allowed the fewest stolen bases in 2014 (Min. 140 IP):
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 5 | 17 |
| Yu Darvish | 10 | 0 |
| Phil Hughes | 14 | 7 |
Honestly, I’m not sure that there’s anything we can really use here, but it’s interesting how all over the place the numbers were. For example, there were only two stolen base attempts against Ventura the entire season! There are actually quite a few pitchers who, for whatever reason, players just don’t seem to try to steal against:
| Player | Stolen Bases Attempts Against |
| Yordano Ventura | 2 |
| Mark Buehrle | 3 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 4 |
| Chris Tillman | 4 |
Here’s something else that I definitely think is actionable: if you’re going to play a speed guy, make sure players are at least attempting to steal against the opposing pitcher!
It’s hard to look at raw totals for catchers because playing time at the position is so uneven around the league, but here are a few catchers who were really bad last year at allowing stolen bases:
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Yasmani Grandal | 49 | 12.5 |
| Wilin Rosario | 37 | 15.9 |
| Derek Norris | 60 | 19.1 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 72 | 19.1 |
Those percentages are all terrible and it’s no surprise that none of these guys are currently catching for the team that they played for behind the plate in 2014. Here’s the good from last season:
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Yadier Molina | 23 | 47.7 |
| Robinson Chirinos | 44 | 39.7 |
| Russell Martin | 37 | 38.5 |
| Brian McCann | 49 | 37.2 |
Yadier’s numbers are just ridiculous, but as a whole, if you are looking for a stolen base, it might be tougher against the guys listed above.
Now that we have a general idea of who’s good and bad within the category, let’s look at some Fantasy Labs data and see where batters typically added or lost points in Plus/Minus. Here’s the results for player’s whose SB/Game is over 0.15 (turns out to be 20-25 or more SBs in a season):
When I sort for the opposing teams that took away the most points from Plus/Minus, here are the teams:
The Nationals, Royals, Cardinals, and Reds all ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of stolen bases allowed in 2014 and are all right here on the list. Now, keep in mind that not 100% of a speed guy’s value comes from stolen bases. The result set includes guys like Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, Jacoby Ellsbury, Charlie Blackmon, etc. who are also very good in other areas. Still, it looks like enough of the overall value is being affected to factor in a catcher or pitcher who are particularly hard to steal against into your daily projections.
And the same correlation is evident on the other end of the spectrum. Each team that was listed as a good matchup to steal against above ranked in the top 10 in terms of Plus/Minus when applying the SB/Game is over 0.15 filter:
Now that we have some degree of confidence that there was a correlation evident in 2014, let’s see what’s been happening so far this year. On a team level, the Padres and Cubs continue to rank in the bottom five in terms of stolen bases allowed despite both teams bringing in new catchers this season!
| Team | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Padres | 40 | 32.43 |
| Pirates | 49 | 30.99 |
| Angels | 39 | 30.36 |
| Cubs | 38 | 22.45 |
| Astros | 38 | 28.30 |
Meanwhile, Yadier has continued to set the pace for the Cardinals on the other end of the spectrum:
| Team | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Cardinals | 10 | 37.50 |
| Yankees | 20 | 39.39 |
| Tigers | 23 | 37.84 |
| Royals | 23 | 36.11 |
| Nationals | 25 | 30.56 |
Finally, here have been the best pitchers and catchers to pick on in 2015:
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Jered Weaver | 10 | 23 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 9 | 10 |
| Hector Santiago | 9 | 31 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 8 | 11 |
| Rick Porcello | 8 | 20 |
| Player | Stolen Bases Against | Caught Stealing % |
| Derek Norris | 42 | 33.33 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 36 | 28 |
| Jason Castro | 28 | 33.33 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 26 | 27 |
