What You Need To Know
Just 18 players make up the entire field of the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas this week. And it’s an elite field: Three of 2016’s four Major Champions, all three medal-winning Olympians, 12 players from the 2016 Ryder Cup, and Tiger Woods.
This is the second consecutive year the tournament will be played at Albany on New Providence Island. Bubba Watson won at 25-under par last year and is back to defend his title. Patrick Reed, who’s also back in this year’s field, finished second a year ago at 22-under par.
There is no cut, so all 18 golfers will rack up four rounds of points, barring any withdrawals or disqualifications. There are five Par-5 holes and the layout is open and forgiving, so the track should favor the long hitters.
With a field of just 18 golfers, I’m dividing the field into thirds based on pricing. Let’s take a look at some intriguing golfers in each pricing tier.
The Upper Third
$8,600 and Higher
Dustin Johnson ($11,200): Johnson is the most expensive golfer in the field and currently has the highest Vegas Odds to Win (15.4 percent). He leads in Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD) at 314.5 yards, and his 16.5 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) ranks second. Importantly, DJ’s 87.1 fantasy points per contest (on a running 16-tournament time frame) leads the field by nearly 10 full points. His 52 percent Upside during that time is also the best overall.
Johnson finished 15th here last season, which isn’t good when there’s only 18 golfers, but he has ripped off three wins and an additional six top-10 finishes in 12 tournaments since the start of June.
Jordan Spieth ($10,300): Spieth won the Australian Open two weeks ago and has the second-best Odds to Win (14.3 percent) this week. Spieth dunked it on the Par-3 second hole here last year, earning the all-important DraftKings hole-in-one bonus on his way to a fourth-place finish.
Jordan’s 68.2 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) and 16.2 Adj Bird Avg rank third overall. His 63.5 Scrambling percentage is the best in the field.
Per our Trends tool, similarly priced golfers with comparable LT metrics have historically provided a +5.57 Plus/Minus with 64 percent Consistency:
Henrik Stenson ($9,400): Stenson tops the field in LT Adj Rd Score (67.9), LT Greens in Regulation (74.7 percent), LT Driving Accuracy (71.5 percent), LT Adjusted Par 5 average (-5.8), and Adj Bird Avg (16.9). Per the LT data, he’s an extremely sharp play.
In his last 10 tournaments, Stenson has two wins, two second-place finishes, and three additional top-10 finishes. Henrik is currently the highest-rated golfer in the CSURAM88 Player Model.
The Middle Third
$7,000 – $8,200
Justin Rose ($8,200): Rose has the fourth-best LT Adj Rd Score (68.4) and LT GIR percentage (70.6). He also ranks fifth in LT DD (304.1) and seventh in LT Adj Bird Avg (15.2).
The gold medalist is a local Albany resident, and he owns the course record. He’s supposed to be taking some time off for back issues — but he couldn’t resist the guaranteed large paycheck by playing in his own backyard — so approach with caution.
Bubba Watson ($7,600): The defending champion is third in the field with a 312.8-yard LT DD, and he ranks seventh with a 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score. His 6.7 percent Odds to Win are the best among this middle third of golfers.
Be forewarned that Bubba hasn’t been playing great heading into this tournament: His 71.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is the fourth-worst mark in the field.
The Bottom Third
$6,900 and Lower
Emiliano Grillo ($6,900): Grillo ranks third in LT GIR (70.7 percent) and LT DA (67 percent). His 15.5 Adj Bird Avg is fifth overall.
Grillo has destroyed his salary-based expectations in his last 10 tournaments and hasn’t been priced this low since The Open Championship in July. He’s likely to continue said destruction:
J.B. Holmes ($6,800): Holmes can drop bombs: His 313.3-yard LT DD ranks second overall. That alone makes him interesting at an event like this. He drained 27 birdies at this track last year and finished T8.
Zach Johnson ($6,300): This is probably the first and last time you’ll see Johnson as the cheapest golfer in the field. Zach hasn’t finished better than 33rd in his last seven tournaments, but he could make his way into a lot of lineups this week for those looking to load up on the expensive studs.
Good luck this week!
