It’s a bit too early to be referencing my NFL player projections I typically build in June after the draft is complete and free agency settles down. But with the Odell Beckham Jr. news on Tuesday night, let’s take a quick stab at some rough initial projections for his stats this year on the Browns.
First off, let’s nail down his expected receptions and work from there. In the past three seasons, Odell received roughly a 28% target share on the Giants. With the Browns, he will likely compete with Jarvis Landry for targets along with TE David Njoku.
I’m going to estimate him at right around a 26% target share with 575 total pass attempts by the Browns this year. I’ll give him 61.5% completion rate with Baker Mayfield. That comes to 91.9 receptions.
What about yards and touchdowns?
With a 13.5 yards per reception rate (right around his career average), that gives us 1,240 receiving yards. I’ll peg his TD% right around 10.5% and that gives us 9.7 receiving TDs.
I threw up Twitter polls for all three stats and here were the results after 30 minutes:
- 95.5 receptions (57% over, 43% under) (1,273 votes)
- 1300.5 receiving yards (55% over, 45% under) (1,208 votes)
- 10 receiving TDs (67% over, 33% under) (1,275 votes)
As you can see, the public opinion is hitting the Overs on the semi-inflated numbers I posted. I’m guessing sportsbooks will offer something closer to numbers I gave above or even slightly higher.
And if that happens, I think it’ll be worth taking the Under on all three, given most props count as action as long as the player plays in Week 1. The lines often don’t factor in the missed game(s) risk enough on season-long props, and heavy action on the Over will only inflate the lines more.
Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports