The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Seahawks at Saints
Seattle will travel to New Orleans in Week 8 to take on Drew Brees and Co. at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football. This game currently has a 48-point total and the Seahawks are 2.5-point road favorites. Seattle is implied for 25.25 points; the Saints, 22.75 points.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
In the Week 8 QB Breakdown, Matthew Freedman pointed out that Wilson’s -4.21 DraftKings Plus/Minus and -4.78 FanDuel Plus/Minus are the worst marks among starting QBs this year, making him the worst DFS asset at the position. Yeah . . .
That’s not ideal. The good news is that a matchup against the Saints at the Superdome is about as close to a perfect situation as a QB can theoretically have: The defense was famously bad last year, finishing last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and it hasn’t been any better this season, ranking 29th, 28th, and 28th overall, against the pass, and against the run. Seriously, if Wilson can’t get it going this week, we should probably just not roster him until we actually witness a miraculous injury healing on the field. Despite the risk and poor play, he’s currently the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales Model.
Wilson has been plagued by injuries most of the season but wasn’t listed on Friday’s final injury report.
RB – Christine Michael
Wilson isn’t the only Seahawk at the top of his position in the FD Bales Model. Michael missed his salary-based expectation last week for the first time all year, posting just 7.0 FD points against the Cardinals and gaining just 55 all-purpose yards. It’s hard to hold that against him, however: The Cardinals currently rank third in total defense (per DVOA) and Michael still received the bulk of the carries. In fact, he’s dominated this backfield in the past month (per the Market Share Report):
Over the last four games, he’s owned 69.9 percent of the team’s rushes and 10 total touches inside the 10-yard line — eight more than any other Seattle player. Further, he’s yet to receive fewer than three targets in the passing game this season. This is a dream matchup, and he’s certainly in play across all contest formats.
RB – C.J. Prosise
Don’t get cute here: The Superdome helps only players who actually, you know, play. Prosise is second in line this week for the Seahawks behind Michael, but he’s seen only two carries and four targets all season. Again, don’t get cute.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin is ‘only’ the third-highest rated WR in the FD Bales Model this week. Like Wilson, Baldwin just hasn’t been the same guy this season:
With the addition of Jimmy Graham back into the offense, Baldwin hasn’t received the consistent heavy volume that he did in the second half of 2015. Still, this is a talented WR1 — unless you want to call Jimmy the WR1 — who just received nine targets a week ago and is playing in New Orleans against the 28th-ranked pass defense. Further, per our NFL Matchups tool, he’s set to line up opposite rookie CB DeVante Harris, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 47.0. Honestly, I didn’t even know their grades went that low. Baldwin is certainly a volatile player, but the Superdome is the superdrug that cures all ailments. He’s an elite GPP play at 13 to 16 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership on both sites.
WR – Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett
Lockett has been one of the more disappointing players so far this season. Many analysts expected a breakout sophomore campaign for the talented WR after seeing tremendous flashes in 2015, but he’s hit double-digit DK points in only one game this year. After seeing eight targets in Week 1, Lockett hasn’t seen more than five since and hasn’t exceeded 23 receiving yards in the last three games. Kearse didn’t have the same expectations, but he’s been a similar player: He’s getting three to five targets per game, racking up relatively few yards, and not scoring. These guys have theoretical upside because of the game and matchup, but they’re GPP dart throws at best.
Lockett (thigh) is questionable for Week 8 but expected to play.
TE – Jimmy Graham
For a great, thorough breakdown of Graham this week, read Freedman’s TE Breakdown. Long story short: Graham is back to being his beastly self and returns to New Orleans for the first time since his playing time there. There could be blood. Seriously, though, Graham is pretty much the Seahawks’ WR1 this year: He leads the team in targets (27.07 percent) and Air Yards (34.54 percent) in the last month. He put up double-digit DK points last week against the Cardinals — a top-five team against TEs this year — and now he gets the Saints, who currently rank 26th against TEs. He’s the chalk and comes with super-high ownership: He’s projected for 17 to 20 percent on DK and 31 to 40 percent on FD.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
When Brees is playing at home in the Superdome he’s a plug-‘n-play quarterback, even against top-10 pass defenses.
The Seahawks currently rank fifth in pass DVOA and have limited opposing QBs to the fewest passing TDs and second-fewest passing yards in the league. This is undoubtedly a tough matchup, but we’ve historically seen Brees rise to the occasion when playing at home. Our Player Models certainly take Brees’ matchup into account — he has a 7.4-point FD floor — but his 32.9-point ceiling is worth chasing in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Mark Ingram
Ingram had some subpar usage to start the season, but he owns 69.8 percent of the Saints’ rushing yards and is averaging 18 touches per game. For how well Seattle’s Legion of Boom has fared, the defense has been equally impressive against the run, ranking fourth in rush DVOA. The Seahawks are limiting opposing RBs to the third-fewest rushing yards. Only David Johnson has been able to reach the end zone against them. Seattle’s -0.2 FD Opponent Plus/Minus against RBs generally tells us that this is a situation to which we should limit our exposure.
RB – Travaris Cadet
Even if Seattle is able to jump out to an early lead, Cadet is still a far-fetched GPP play. Seattle is allowing a low 4.3 receptions per game to RBs, as their linebackers have excelled in pass coverage.
RB – Tim Hightower
Hightower had six touches in Week 7, but zero touches in Week 6. You’d probably have better luck rostering John Kuhn.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Brees’ outstanding splits at home over his career permeate to his receivers, and Cooks is no exception. He’s also a fantastic option playing at the Coors Field of the NFL. Cooks continues to lead the Saints in market share of Air Yards:
Cooks runs his routes from all over the formation, but if he’s able to find himself with one-on-one coverage against right CB DeShawn Shead, he could capitalize on those air yards by going deep down the left side of the field — Seattle’s weakest area of coverage. The tough matchup here likely makes Cooks a difficult player to roster in cash games, but his eight Pro Trends and 17.4-point FD ceiling put him in GPP consideration.
WR – Willie Snead
Slot receivers have had a mix of results against the Seahawks, but Seattle has held these type of receivers in check for the most part. CB Jeremy Lane typically defends these route runners and he’s limiting opposing receivers to just 0.23 fantasy points per route run. When Snead is targeted, he produces, but he’s just one of many weapons in New Orleans and is losing market share to teammate Michael Thomas.
WR – Michael Thomas
Thomas has been a fantastic player recently. Over his past four games, he’s averaged a 6.5-80.8-0.75 stat line and easily exceeded expectations:
You don’t need me to tell you that green is good. Thomas will likely run most of his routes against Shead, who’s being targeted on 22 percent of his routes defended (per PFF). Thomas is averaging 9.5 targets per game over his past four weeks and leads all receivers in Upside this week on FD.
TE – Coby Fleener
As Thomas has emerged, Fleener’s snaps have decreased. After seeing 74.4 percent of the snaps in Weeks 1-4, he’s seen 57.1 percent in Weeks 6-7. Still, even at reduced snaps, Fleener is intriguing, as he’s a Saints pass catcher projected for just two to four percent ownership, and Seattle’s lone weak spot on defense is covering tight ends, as they rank 25th in pass DVOA against the position. They haven’t allowed many big games to date, but they also haven’t faced anyone of Fleener’s caliber yet. With the masses potentially down on him, Fleener could be a contrarian player to target at a reasonable $3,400 DK.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
