The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Chargers at Broncos
The Broncos are currently 4.5-point home favorites against the Chargers in their second meeting in the past three weeks. The Chargers’ current implied Vegas total of 20 points is the fifth-lowest mark in Week 8. The Broncos are currently implied to score 24.5 points.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
Rivers is ninth in fantasy points per drop back (0.48), seventh in passer rating (102.4), fourth in yards per attempt (8.3), and first in red-zone pass attempts (7.9 per game) in 2016. But Rivers didn’t do all that well against Denver two weeks ago in the first divisional meeting. Per our Trends tool:
Yeah, gross. Rivers was held to 178 yards and one touchdown, and that was at home. This is not a time to go double or nothing on Rivers. As the road underdog, he is the lowest-rated DraftKings QB in the Levitan Model, owning the second-lowest floor (4.5 points) and lowest Projected Plus/Minus (+0.32) on the slate.
RB – Melvin Gordon
Gordon scored three times last week and is now first in the NFL in total touchdowns (10), failing to score in just one game in 2016. His lack of efficiency (54th in yards per touch) is a bit scary, but his production at least is propped up by his league-leading 33 red-zone rush attempts. Further, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, he over the last four games has owned the largest rush share in the NFL (84.42 percent) and had 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line (third in the NFL). Gordon is the ultimate DFS troll. He will probably be terribly inefficient all game but get into the end zone because that is what he does:
With volume and red-zone opportunity mitigating his inefficiency, Gordon is still in consideration this week for guaranteed prize pools, as he owns our seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel (+4.84) and is projected to be owned at two to four percent against a Broncos defense that is weakest on the ground. He may be a tough sell in cash games, but Gordon has zero competition in this backfield and has enough involvement in the passing game and touchdown equity to provide value.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Per our Matchups tool, Benjamin is likely to run the majority of his routes against cornerback Aqib Talib, giving Benjamin a matchup that Pro Football Focus ranked as its 12th hardest. We could probably end the blurb right there. Benjamin is tough to roster in any format, as he had just three receptions for 17 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago. Benjamin has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of just zero to one percent, but there are better spots to be contrarian this week. WRs with comparable salaries against the Broncos typically perform -2.22 DK points below salary-based expectations with a 25 percent Consistency.
Benjamin (knee) is questionable for Week 8 but expected to play.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams is tied for third in the league in red-zone targets and owns 20.0 and 26.7 percent target shares inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. Further, he is still only $4,700 DK. Road underdog WRs historically get a bump in production, and if I am taking a shot on someone this week in this passing game it’s going to be on Williams, who is slated to face CB Bradley Roby in what PFF has ranked as the second-most WR-friendly matchup. No one in this passing game is a great play by any means, but Williams is projected at just two to four percent ownership, and he leads the team in target share of Air Yards (29.25 percent).
Williams (knee) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
It’s the same old story with Inman: He’s averaged a higher percentage of snaps than any other San Diego WR, but he doesn’t do much else, as he is not a focal point in the Chargers offense, even in good situations. Per our Matchups tool, Inman is likely to see a lot of CB Chris Harris Jr., who offers Inman PFF’s third-hardest matchup of the slate. Inman is completely outmatched and is the third-worst rated FD WR in our Tournament Model. He’s the flimsiest of GPP darts.
TE – Hunter Henry
Henry suffered a concussion during the Chargers’ Week 7 win over the Falcons. He practiced fully on Friday and is listed as questionable, but he’s still in the league’s concussion protocol. His situation should be monitored.
If he does suit up, he will have to deal with a Broncos defense ranked ninth against TEs in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The stout Broncos defense notwithstanding, Henry did drop a 6-83-1 stat line against Denver two weeks ago on eight targets, blowing away every other option in this passing game.
TE – Antonio Gates
If Henry is unable to play, Gates will be the team’s undisputed No. 1 TE. Gates has thrived against the Broncos lately, averaging a 4.4/41.6/0.8 line in his last five matchups against the team. He is easily the top-rated TE in our Cash Model, but he might be more suited as a low-salary GPP punt play. His ownership is currently projected at zero to one percent.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian threw the ball a career-high 50 times against this same Chargers team two weeks ago but wasn’t able to get much going, given how badly his offensive line played. He has thrown just three touchdown passes in his last three games, and there will likely be more of the same in this game, as the Chargers defense ranks sixth in passing DVOA. Siemian is a risky option with the slate’s fifth-lowest DK floor (4.8 points). He lacks upside to make that risk worth it even in GPPs.
RB – Devontae Booker
With C.J. Anderson (knee) officially on injured reserve, Booker is expected to get the majority of carries against the Chargers’ 18th-ranked rush DVOA. Booker impressed against the Texans last week, ringing up a 17-83-1 rushing line, and he now has seven receptions across the last three weeks.
Booker is this week’s mega chalk, with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of 41-plus percent on DK. He’s the highest-rated DK RB in our Cash Model, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus (+7.64) and third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+2.9). When volume is everything, cheap volume is hard to pass up in both cash games and GPPs. Don’t overthink this one.
RB – Kapri Bibbs
The third-year third-stringer is now the backup RB. In his only year of action in the Football Bowl Subdivision, he produced a 281-1,741-31 rushing stat line in 14 games for the Colorado Stats Rams.
This is unconfirmed, but he might by CSURAM88’s favorite college player of all time. Again, that’s just speculation.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Denver has one of the most concentrated offenses in the league: Over the past four weeks, Thomas and WR Emmanuel Sanders have accounted for 52.1 percent of Denver’s target market share. Thomas (25.79) trails Sanders (37.07) in market share of Air Yards, but he has out-targeted him inside the 10-yard line (four vs. two) over the past four weeks. At $6,200 on DK, Thomas is a low-end GPP play facing off against CB Casey Hayward in PFF’s fifth-hardest matchup of the week. The Chargers defense has held WRs to a -0.4 DK Opponent Plus/Minus over the past 12 months.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
There’s a lot to like with Sanders, but — with Siemian under center — he’s riskier than his four-game target share of 26.28 percent (11th in the league) would lead you to believe. However, if there is one player in this passing game to take a chance on in GPPs, it is Sanders, who is slated to face CB Steve Williams in PFF’s 26th-most advantageous matchup. Sanders owns a 37.07 percent target share of Air Yards (eighth in the NFL in his past four games:
He currently rates twelfth in our Tournament Model on FD with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and two to four percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
WR – Jordan Norwood
Norwood had seven targets two weeks ago against the Chargers in a game in which Siemian threw the ball 50 times. This only highlights his extremely low ceiling, as he totaled just 39 yards. He’s a fringe GPP dart at best.
TE – Virgil Green
Green saw zero targets last week against the Texans and has just 12 on the season. The red-zone looks from the preseason have not carried over, as he has just one in four games. Siemian doesn’t look to his TEs nearly enough to make Green even a viable punt play against a Chargers team ranked 22nd against TEs in pass DVOA. Could a fluky TD happen? Maybe, but there are many better TE investments to be made in this slate.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
