The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Patriots at Steelers
The Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers will host the Patriots as heavy seven-point Vegas underdogs this Sunday. The Patriots implied total of 26.25 points is the fifth-highest mark in Week 7. The Steelers are implied to score just 19.25 points.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Brady has come back from suspension with two elite performances and has another great matchup in Week 7. The Steelers are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (298.3) to quarterbacks, and they rank 21st against the pass according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per our Trends tool, they’ve allowed a +1.58 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to QBs at 66.7 percent Consistency and just 2.6 percent ownership:
Brady is in play for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools. With the highest DK point ceiling among QBs, Brady has the slate’s highest FantasyLabs ownership projection for good reason.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Blount has been fed the ball this season, as his 19.83 rush attempts per game are tied for third among all running backs. However, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, he’s also averaged just 28 snaps per game over the past two weeks after averaging 42.25 during the first four weeks of the season. With Brady back, Blount is no longer the centerpiece of this offense. As a result, he’s a risky play in cash games but has great GPP potential because of his multi-touchdown upside as the team’s goal-line back:
RB – James White
With Blount’s snaps on the decline, White has seen 53.5 percent of the snaps the past two weeks as opposed to the 33.5 percent he saw the first four weeks. White has reemerged as a passing-game threat, and there is no denying that White is just better with Tom Brady under center:
Since Brady’s return, White has averaged 16.9 DK points and posted a +9.66 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency. White’s 36.7 percent juke rate (per Player Profiler) is the third-best rate among all running backs this season.
Brady clearly sees White as a top option and that really matters. Even after last week’s two-TD outburst, White could have sneaky upside in GPPs. He’s the seventh-highest rated DK RB in our Tournament Model and tied for the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus (4.6). It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have given up the third-most receiving yards to RBs this year.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman has a nice matchup against the Steelers this week. They are allowing the second-most receptions in the league through six weeks. Edelman has not shown huge TD upside but remains a huge part of this Patriots passing game, and the Pittsburgh secondary has allowed the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus in the past 12 months to FD WRs (+2.1).
Edelman has a 94 percent FD Bargain Rating and the fourth-highest WR rating in the Tournament Model. He’s a strong GPP play this week, with recency bias holding him to a FantasyLabs ownership projection of just two to four percent in the Sunday Million. Edelman has just 65 yards since Brady returned, but he’s also been targeted a massive 17 times in the last two week. This could be the week in which those opportunities turn into production.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan had just one target in Week 6. However, he still leads the team in market share of Air Yards (29.30 percent) in the past four games. He isn’t highly-rated in any of our Pro Models, but his explosiveness suggests that he has some sneaky upside for tournaments. He’s very cheap on FD at $5,500 and boasts an 88 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Danny Amendola
It is highly unlikely that Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance anytime soon. He has just two targets in four straight games. He’s a GPP dart at best considering his low 3.6-point projected floor on DK.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Last week we recommend that it may be time to go heavy on Gronk in GPPs at his low ownership projection. If you listened it paid off as Gronk appears to have fully recovered from his hamstring injury. He’s been back to his usual dominant self since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5. Gronk has averaged 25.55 DK point and posted a +13.38 Plus/Minus over the past two weeks with two 100-yard games. He is essentially matchup-proof but it is always tough to pay up for him in cash games. In GPPs, Gronk is all alone in an elite tier with the highest floor and ceiling at the position.
TE – Martellus Bennett
The two-TE set is back as the most common formation in New England, and Bennett has shown that he has as much TD upside as anyone. He is essentially the weekly GPP leverage play against people chasing last week’s Gronk Smash. He currently has the sixth-highest FD TE ranking in our Tournament Model with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and five to eight percent projected ownership.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Writer: John Proctor
Note: All of the Steelers skill position players were priced before Roethlisberger’s injury news was released. Therefore they are all priced as if Ben were healthy and starting.
QB – Landry Jones
Jones has a tough test this week as he faces off against Bill Belichick’s Patriots. In his two 2015 contests as the primary QB, Landry had both a good and bad performance, throwing two touchdowns in his stint against Arizona and two interceptions against Kansas City. He performed poorly in the 2016 preseason.
Jones is a clear downgrade for this entire offense. His presence in the game will likely lead to a run-heavy approach, as the Steelers passed the ball 49 times in his two games as the primary passer. Luckily for Jones, the Patriots passing defense ranks 25th in DVOA. Jones rates as a bottom-five DK QB in the Levitan Model.
RB – Le’Veon Bell
In what may be the worst offensive performance from the Steelers this year, Bell somehow managed to compile 108 yards from scrimmage, supplementing his rushing production with six receptions for 55 yards. Bell now has 24 targets over his three games played and continues to show that he has one of the highest floors of any RB. His target volume makes him essentially a game flow-independent player.
However, without Big Ben to threaten defenses in the passing game, Bell should see stiffer fronts this week. Running the ball may be especially difficult against a Pats defense that is seventh in rush DVOA. Still, he will be the focal point of the offense this week and makes for a contrarian tournament option with eight DK Pro Trends.
RB – Fitzgerald Toussaint
DeAngelo Williams has been ruled out for Week 7, and Toussaint will serve as Bell’s backup. Last week, Williams managed only three carries — and Williams is one of the best backups in the league. Toussaint may not even need to put his helmet on this weekend.
WR – Antonio Brown
Last week, Brown had a horrible game. He was targeted eight times and caught four balls for 39 yards. What saved it from being his worst game of the year was his one rush attempt for six yards. Even with Landry at QB, we should expect more. This week he gets to match up with a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against WR1s in pass DVOA. The Pats allowed A.J. Green to catch six passes for 88 yards last week.
Brown should run the majority of his routes against Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan. Both rank outside of PFF’s top-25 graded CBs. Normally these matchups would be considered upgrades, but unfortunately Brown has to catch passes from Jones, and he hasn’t been good when catching passes from QBs other than Roethlisberger:
Brown is the most expensive DK WR and the second-most expensive FD WR this week. He rates well outside the top-24 DK and FD WR options in the Levitan Model.
WR – Sammie Coates
Coates played with a broken finger and a laceration on his hand in Week 6, seeing the field for only 14 snaps. He did manage to see four targets with his limited snaps, but he was unable to catch any of them. Coates is not on this week’s final injury report. He’s expected to play and might be back to his previous form. Of course, his ability to operate successfully as a deep receiver is in doubt with Landry at QB.
WR – Eli Rogers
Markus Wheaton is out for Week 7. In his absence, Rogers steps into the slot receiver role again. With Coates limited last week, Rogers saw five targets, catching four for 35 yards. Although Rogers saw an increased role without Wheaton, his usage this week will be unreliable with Jones at quarterback.
TE – Jesse James
With Wheaton sidelined last week, James expected to see a small boost in production, but he only managed to see three targets. James is an unreliable TD-dependent option.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
