The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Cowboys at Packers
The Green Bay Packers are currently four-point favorites at home and implied to score 25.8 points — tied for the fourth-highest mark of Week 6 teams. The visiting Dallas Cowboys are currently implied for 21.8 points.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
Prescott is currently a top-five rated quarterback in both Jonathan Bales’ and Adam Levitan’s Player Models for FanDuel. Our FantasyLabs projected ownership of Prescott is currently at zero to one percent. Per our Trends tool, Prescott has been owned at 3.1 percent or less in FD tournaments every week other than Week 1 when #DakInCash was a thing. Prescott is the second-ranked quarterback in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and fourth-ranked quarterback in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. Dak has as many or more rushing touchdowns (three) than all but six running backs in the NFL. Deploying him as a naked quarterback in guaranteed prize pools is a strategy that Jesus would approve of.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Something’s got to give. The Packers have allowed a league-low 42.5 rushing yards and 12.3 FD points per game to running backs. Green Bay’s defensive line is ranked No. 1 against the run in Adjusted Line Yards by FO. Dallas’ offensive line is the top-ranked run blocking unit in Adjusted Line Yards (per FO). Elliott leads the league in rushing attempts (109) and yards (546). He has averaged 22.66 carries and 137.33 yards per game in the past three games. The matchup is much too scary for cash games, but deploying Zeke in GPPs on FD (where he has a 92 percent Bargain Rating) is certainly an interesting contrarian move.
RB – Alfred Morris
Morris is Elliott’s back-up. He has received only 16.55 percent of the Cowboys’ rushes in the past four games. He shouldn’t be on your DFS radar unless you are going to attempt to predict Morris vulturing a touchdown or two from Elliott.
WR – Terrance Williams
T-Will has been targeted 15 times in the past three weeks and is tied with Cole Beasley for the lead among Cowboys wide receivers in that time frame. The Packers have been below average defending the pass (ranked 19th by FO) and have allowed 39.8 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers (ninth-most) so far this season. Williams has an 80 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he has produced a +5.84 Plus/Minus and exceeded his salary-based expectations in the past three weeks. Stacking Dak with Williams in DK’s Millionaire Maker would cost just $9,700 ($300 less than it costs to roster Antonio Brown).
WR – Cole Beasley
Beasley’s targets are down from the start of the season, but he still leads the Cowboys in target share over the past four weeks. That said, Prescott has spread the ball around, and while Cole’s 19.09 percent share may lead the Cowboys, it pales in comparison to the 30-plus percent the league leaders have been getting. The Cowboys are a run-first, ball-control offense that severely limits the upside of a player who counts on target volume to produce points. Beasley has consistently exceeded his salary-based expectations this season, but he’s not someone you need to force into your lineup.
WR – Dez Bryant
Per our NFL News feed, Bryant (knee) is questionable. He is reportedly a game-time decision but seems unlikely to play.
According to FO, the Packers are the second-worst team defending opponents’ No. 1 wide receivers this season. Be sure to monitor Bryant’s status as we approach kickoff.
WR – Brice Butler
Butler is Bryant’s back-up and would continue to see snaps with Dez out (he’s averaged 54 snaps per game the past two weeks). That said, he saw nine targets in one game and three in the other.
TE – Jason Witten
Witten once again played on every single one of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in Week 5. The Packers rank 26th defending tight ends (per FO), and have allowed the ninth-most FD points per game (12.7) to the position this season. Witten has the fifth-most targets among tight ends (34) and fifth-most red-zone targets in the NFL (eight) this season. And he’s not afraid to prove that 34-year-old dad-runners can still deliver a mean stiff arm. With FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in FD’s Sunday Million, stacking Witten (88 percent Bargain Rating on FD) with Dak could prove to be a profitable move.
?? STIFF-ARM ALERT! ??
Jason. Witten. ? #DallasCowboys https://t.co/eugkmR9kNS
— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2016
Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers continued to play well at home during the Packers’ Week 5 win over the Giants. He’s had a lot of success over the past three seasons when playing in Green Bay:
He’s now averaged 274.18 passing yards and 2.71 touchdowns in his last 17 home games, far surpassing his average of 231.67 passing yards and 1.67 touchdowns during his last 18 road games. This success in Green Bay hasn’t been reflected in Rodgers’ salary on DraftKings, as our Trends tool has indicated he’s posted a +4.88 Plus/Minus with 66.7 percent Consistency at home over the past three seasons. He’ll be at Lambeau Field again for the Packers’ Week 6 matchup against the Cowboys and he’s priced at $7,300 on DK with a +1.1 Projected Plus/Minus. Keep in mind that the Cowboys offense has the second-highest time of possession in the league through five weeks, so Rodgers could see limited opportunities to exploit a defense that has allowed 20-plus yard passes at a bottom-10 rate this season.
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy was running all over the Giants in Week 5 before suffering an ankle injury that has him questionable for Week 6. The injury will almost assuredly limit his number of carries, which is nothing new for him. The Packers have continuously refrained from overworking Lacy, as evidenced by him receiving fewer than 20 carries in 30 of his last 35 games, per PFR. It’s a shame, considering he’s playing some of the best ball of his career in 2016, averaging an impressive 3.8 yards after contact – the third-highest rate among all running backs with at least 50 carries this season, per PFF. Lacy’s health will be monitored all week by our NFL News team, but he’s a risky play at $7,000 on FanDuel if less than 100 percent, even with a good matchup against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season.
RB – James Starks
Starks and Lacy are currently the only two true running backs on the Packers’ roster. Like Lacy, Starks (knee) is also questionable for Week 6. Starks has averaged just 0.19 fantasy points per opportunity through five weeks – the third-worst rate among all running backs this season, per PFF. He’s minimum-priced on FD but could have trouble picking up much yardage through the air, as Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee has earned PFF’s 11th-highest coverage grade among all LBs this season.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson scored another red-zone touchdown during the Packers’ Week 5 win over the Giants. He now has a league-leading 10 targets and five touchdowns inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This is a bit of a new role for Nelson, who previously split targets with Randall Cobb near the opponent’s goal line. Nelson and Cobb have been targeted 10 and three times inside the red zone this season, respectively — a far cry from 2014, when each was targeted 25 times inside the red zone. Nelson has been the clear beneficiary of the new arrangement, averaging 19.6 DK points per game compared to just 12.3 for Cobb. They have a tough matchup in Week 6 against a Cowboys defense that is ranked in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers this season. Nelson is priced at $8,300 on FD with a 95 percent Bargain Rating, although his 17 to 20 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the third-highest among all WRs.
WR – Randall Cobb
Cobb had his best game of the season in Week 5, converting his 11 targets into nine receptions and 108 receiving yards. Still, he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last 10 games and has fewer red-zone targets than both Nelson and Davante Adams this season. Cobb has now posted a -1.91 Plus/Minus and averaged just 13.06 DK points in his 20 games since 2014, when he finished tied for fourth in the NFL with 25 red-zone targets. It’s still too early to write him off, but that average would rank Cobb as just the 40th-best receiver in DraftKings points per game this season, well removed from his top-10 status in 2014. Cobb is priced at $6,000 on DK but has a -1.6 Projected Plus/Minus. He does have a good matchup, considering Cowboys slot cornerback Orlando Scandrick is doubtful for Sunday.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams has now scored a touchdown in three of his four games this season. He’s still averaging just 7.7 yards per target, but thanks to his newfound touchdown scoring ability, he’s averaged a strong 2.02 fantasy points per target — a top-15 rate among all wide receivers this season, per playerprofiler.com. Adams is priced at $3,900 on DraftKings with zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
TE – Richard Rodgers
Rodgers had a disappointing Week 5 even with Jared Cook on the bench. He gained just six yards on his five targets and continued to struggle with Nelson in the lineup:
Out of his 16 games with Nelson, Rodgers has received five-plus targets only twice. He’s priced at $2,900 on DK with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and has a tough matchup against Byron Jones, PFF’s second-highest graded cover safety this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
