The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Browns at Titans
With uncertainty at the quarterback position, the Browns opened as seven-point dogs against the Titans. They have the lowest implied total on the slate at 18.5 points. The Vegas total opened at 44 points; the Titans have an implied total of 25.5 points.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Cody Kessler
The Browns just announced that Kessler will get the start against the Titans over Josh McCown. Kessler had a decent start against the Patriots, going five of eight for 62 yards and a touchdown before leaving with an injury. This week’s matchup is not great. Tennessee ranks as the eighth-best passing defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The Titans also play at a slow pace, which limits opportunities for opposing QBs. Kessler does not rate highly in Adam Levitan’s FanDuel and DraftKings Player Models. His 13.5-point DK projection is by far the lowest of any QB in Week 6.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
While Crowell had a poor outing against New England last week, he still ranks second in the NFL in yards per carry this season. He is currently averaging 5.6 YPC and 12 percent of his runs have gone for more than 15 yards. Crowell is currently PFF’s sixth-highest graded RB on the season. While Tennessee isn’t allowing much total yardage per week on the ground, they are allowing a high 4.2 YPC.
The matchup isn’t great — the Titans have DVOA’s 12th-ranked rushing defense — but Crowell has been running so well that he has weekly 100-yard and a touchdown upside. However, his weekly floor is very low since he lacks passing game involvement. Crowell has less than four Pro Trends on both sites.
RB – Duke Johnson Jr.
In a week in which everyone expected a “Duke game,” he was barely involved. He received only four carries and three targets in a game in which Cleveland lost by 20 points. Duke now has three games with less than five carries and only two games with more than five targets.
With Crowell playing so well, Duke has had very little involvement in the offense. He is implied to score only 1.6 points per salary according to our DK Player Models and is projected for a low 10.6-point ceiling.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
It is common knowledge that the Patriots make a concerted effort to limit opposing teams’ top skill players. They were able to limit Pryor to five catches for 48 yards in Week 5. Pryor also saw his lowest target total of the season with just six. In Week 6, Pryor should run the majority of his routes against Perrish Cox. Cox is PFF’s fifth-worst graded cornerback on the season, making this one of the best matchups in the slate. Will Fuller caught seven balls for 81 yards and a touchdown while spending most of his day in Cox’s coverage in Week 4.
Expect Pryor to bounce back this week, both in yardage and in targets. However, Pryor’s price has risen on DraftKings to the point where he has only a 19 percent Bargain Rating. He is much more reasonably priced on FanDuel with an 83 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
With Pryor drawing the tougher coverages from the Patriots, Hawkins managed to see seven targets. He turned those targets into four catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. While Hawkins is the clear WR2 in Cleveland, he shouldn’t expect to see seven targets each week. Hawkins has only 20 on the entire season.
After a -$700 Salary Change, he is near minimum salary on DraftKings. Hawkins makes for an interesting GPP play and will line up in the slot, where he will avoid PFF’s 21st-ranked cornerback, Jason McCourty. He will instead see coverage from Brice McCain, the 49th-graded cornerback.
WR – Ricardo Louis
Louis yet again operated as the clear WR3, hauling in two of five targets for 13 yards. He has now seen five or fewer targets in each game since Coleman’s injury. Louis is not seeing enough volume to be a relevant DFS option.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge continues to trend upward; he saw eight targets against New England last week. His 26 percent target market share on the week was his highest of the season and his share has increased for three straight weeks. While he has not yet scored a touchdown, his 199 yards over the last three weeks is very encouraging for a TE. For reference, over a 16-week sample, that would be 1,061 receiving yards.
Barnidge makes for a very interesting TE play against the Titans who, per DVOA, are stronger against WRs than TEs. He is currently the ninth-rated TE in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model and costs only $3,300.
Barnidge (forearm, hip) is questionable for the game but expected to play.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Mariota had his best game of the season during the Titans’ Week 5 win over the Dolphins, accounting for four touchdowns and leading the team to a season-high 30 points. He had a season-high seven rush attempts; historically, he’s played much better when featured in the run game:
Coach Mike Mularkey revealed after the game that only one of Mariota’s runs were designed, but he did say that he may get more comfortable when he’s able to run the football. The stats back this assertion up, as he’s averaged nearly four additional fantasy points per game in his five career games with at least five rush attempts. Considering Mariota ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the 2015 NFL combine and had elite shuttle times as well, he could become a very dangerous dual-threat quarterback if Mularkey decides to start utilizing his skill set more. This week he’ll look to shred a Browns defense that has allowed a touchdown on 4.92 percent of their plays over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in the league. Mariota is priced at $6,100 on DK and has a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Through five weeks, Murray has been one of the best running backs in football. He had another excellent game in the Titans’ Week 5 win over the Dolphins, forcing an astounding 13 missed tackles on his 32 touches, per PFF. Murray’s elusiveness in the run game, combined with his 23.4 touches per game, have led to him averaging 0.57 fantasy points per opportunity — the second-best mark among all RBs with at least 50 carries this season. He has a great matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed a 48.69 percent rush success rate over the past 12 months – the fifth-worst mark in the league. Murray is priced at $8,800 on FD with a 92 percent Bargain Rating, although his 21 to 25 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is tied for the second-highest mark among all RBs in Week 6.
RB – Derrick Henry
Henry had his most effective game yet in Week 5, converting his seven carries into 54 rushing yards. He’s averaged a strong 5.4 yards per touch this season, but his 7.4 touches per game aren’t enough to warrant fantasy consideration. Henry is priced at $3,400 on DraftKings and has a 4.4-point projected floor.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe’s four targets in Week 6 were his fewest of the season. Considering his own head coach explicitly called out the team’s wide receivers by saying they haven’t been efficient or precise, it’s hard to imagine Sharpe gaining a bigger role in the offense anytime soon. Even if he does manage to get a more featured role, his average of 1.02 fantasy points per target ranks outside the top-80 among all WRs this season. Sharpe is priced at $4,100 on DK and has a date with Joe Haden – PFF’s 24th-highest graded cornerback through five weeks.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews caught all four of his targets in Week 6 and scored his first touchdown of the season. He’s now had back-to-back strong weeks and has provided some solid value for his cheap salary on DK:
As our Trends tool shows, Matthews has posted a +5.26 Plus/Minus with 100 percent Consistency and averaged 11.7 DK points over the past two weeks with virtually zero ownership. He’s not a recommended cash play considering the Titans offense has called the eighth-fewest pass plays in the league, but he’s an interesting GPP option considering he could avoid Haden and be the team’s featured receiver in a game in which the Titans’ current implied total is tied for the sixth-highest in Week 6. Matthews is priced at $3,400 on DK with a 91 percent Bargain Rating and has zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Andre Johnson
Johnson scored another touchdown in Week 5, and the Titans appear to be fine with feeding their 35-year-old receiver four-plus targets per game. Still, he’s topped 50 receiving yards twice in his last 21 games and his 4.4 yards-per-target average is well outside the top-100 marks among all WRs. Meaning: Johnson may score the occasional touchdown, but his ceiling is almost as low as his floor.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker has been targeted eight times in consecutive games and has re-emerged as the team’s undisputed No. 1 receiver after a disappointing Week 1. He hasn’t played in many games with an implied total over 23, but he’s balled out the few times he has:
As our Trends tool shows, Walker has posted a +12.34 Plus/Minus with 75 percent Consistency and averaged 20.7 DK points in his four games with a similar-implied score over the past three seasons. He’s priced at $5,500 on DK and his eight DK Pro Trends are tied for the most among all tight ends. Walker faces a Browns defense that has allowed 3.2 points above salary-based expectations to TEs over the past 12 months.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
