In the Regression Report, I leverage real data to find quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends with notable data points that suggest impending regression. We will focus on game flow, targets, and team-specific usage in conjunction with our weekly Market Share Report.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Dashboard.
Jared Goff, QB
Negative regression data points: 112.2 quarterback rating, 9.2 yards per attempt, 0.9 percent interception rate, 3.3 percent sack rate
In Week 4, the Rams were the beneficiaries of positive reverse line movement, and there were at least a couple reasons why there was sharp money on the Rams. That said, Goff could be due for negative regression despite his excellent play in 2017. He is third in the NFL in quarterback rating, first in yards per attempt, and fourth and seventh-lowest in sack and interception rate, respectively. Talk about running hot one offseason removed from one of the worst rookie campaigns of all time. Of course, it’s hard to know how much of that was due to old head coach Jeff Fisher and the toxic environment he created last year.
He was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason: Goff averaged a 62.3 percent completion rate on 522.7 attempts per year for 4,065 yards and 32 touchdowns to 10 interceptions over his three seasons at Cal. While he underwhelmed at the combine — he was slow (4.82-second 40) with small hands (nine inches) — he did display great ball velocity (58 mph) and significant intelligence (34 Wonderlic).
New head coach Sean McVay has a history of working wonders with quarterbacks, so although Goff probably can’t sustain this current level of play, there is precedent to believe at least some of what we have seen could be for real. Kirk Cousins took major strides once McVay took over calling plays for the Redskins back in 2014:
- 2014: 61.8 percent completion rate, 55.8 Total QBR, 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
- 2015: 69.8 percent completion rate, 71.0 QBR, 7.8 AY/A
- 2016: 67.0 percent completion rate, 71.7 QBR, 8.0 AY/A
This week, Goff faces off against the Seahawks, who have allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. The most likely scenario for Goff is that he continues to show significant improvement from his rookie year but at some point comes back to earth a bit. That could easily begin in Week 5.
Mike Gillislee, RB
Positive regression data point: Three red zone rush attempts over the past two games
After receiving 13 red zone carries in the first two weeks of the season, Gillislee has just three over his past two games. Still, market share-wise he is dominating touches inside the 10 yard-line for the Patriots:
Of running backs with 10 or more carries inside the 10-yard line last year, Gillislee’s 66.6 percent touchdown rate was the best in the league, the next closest being Le’Veon Bell (50.0 percent). He scored on all six of his attempts from inside the five-yard line. The Buccaneers have allowed just one rushing touchdown all season on the sixth-fewest attempts, but in a game with a historically high total for Thursday Night Football, Gillislee could get back to his regular high workload close to the goal line.
J.D. McKissic, RB
Negative regression data point: 1.95 DraftKings points per snap
This one is a layup, but 1.95 DraftKings points per snap is clearly unsustainable. The bigger reason why McKissic is a regression candidate is the same reason it’s been tough to get excited about C.J. Prosise in this offense — a lack of volume. Russell Wilson has thrown to his running backs on just 13.4 percent of his passes over the past year, and although McKissic averaged 9.5 yards per attempt in a small sample last week, the offensive line is 23rd in adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders) to start the year.
Martavis Bryant, WR
Positive regression data point: 36 percent target market share of air yards, 1.52 fantasy points per target
Through four weeks, Bryant’s career average of 6.7 targets per game (TPG) are down to 5.8, but the quality of targets seemingly remain in tact. His 36 percent target market share of air yards is the eighth-highest in the league, but his 1.52 fantasy points per target is 73rd (PlayerProfiler) at the position.
Could this say more about Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles to start the year than Bryant? Big Ben is still averaging 5.5 deep balls per game, which is fourth-highest in the NFL, but his 62.1 percent completion rate is his lowest since 2010 (61.7) and his quarterback rating of 90.7 is a middling 14th in the league. In his 14-year career, he has boasted a worse quarterback rating only three times, most recently in 2011. His home/road splits aside, Roethlisberger has had decent matchups to start the year. Of the first four, only the Ravens rank inside the top-20 in pass DVOA (Football Outsiders).
Per our Steelers Team Preview, only nine receivers have averaged more yards per reception (min 100 targets) than Bryant over the first two seasons of their career since 1992. In his last season (2015), Bryant’s 29 percent target market share of air yards was 26th in the NFL, but his 1.86 fantasy points per target was 33rd-highest at the position. Since 2014, Roethlisberger has averaged 10.98 more DraftKings points at home than on the road, but this week offers a very unfavorable matchup. Jacksonville’s elite secondary has allowed the third-fewest passing yards and fifth-fewest passing touchdowns so far this season. That means the Alien should be low-owned.
