The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
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Chargers at Raiders
This game currently has a 50-point implied Vegas total, highest on the slate. The Raiders are currently four-point home favorites implied to score 27 points. The Chargers are implied to score 23 points as road underdogs.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
This game has massive shootout potential with the highest point total of the week. The Raiders rank fifth-worst in pass DVOA and have given up the most passing yards in the league through four weeks. That said, Rivers’ home/road splits are scary this year:
Rivers has thrown just one touchdown pass this season on the road but is still in the GPP conversation because the Raiders defense is just that bad, allowing the eighth-highest passer rating (98.6) in the league this year, per teamrankings.com.
RB – Melvin Gordon
Not often the model of efficiency, Gordon at least chipped in for six catches and 43 yards after posting just 36 yards on 19 carries against the Saints. His passing role has increased the past two weeks with an 18.92 percent and 16.28 percent target share. Gordon leads the league in touchdowns (six) through four games and has a 69.52 rushing share. His touchdown dependency (31.62 percent of his total FanDuel points) is a bit scary, but it at least is propped up his league-leading 20 red-zone rush attempts, and he owns a 90.9 percent and 100 percent rushing share inside the 10- and five-yard lines. He has zero volume competition and is facing a Raiders team that has given up the sixth-most FD points per game (26) this year and second-most rushing yards per game (125) to running backs.
RB – Dexter McCluster
McCluster has an 8.1 and 6.98 percent target share through his first two games, so we know he will get at least a few looks as a pass-catcher but that’s likely it. In some contrarian universe, he might make an intriguing leverage play against MG3 in just a few tournament lineups.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Rivers seems content to spread the ball around on offense but Benjamin is still tied for the team lead in target share with Williams (19.86 percent) and is ever so slightly behind Williams in market share of Air Yards (26.96 to – 26.47 percent). Per our Matchups tool, he has a fantastic matchup this week against Sean Smith, easily one of the most fantasy-friendly cornerbacks this season. The fact that Benjamin has played fewer snaps per game (73 percent) than both Williams (78 percent) and Inman (88 percent) is a legitimate concern. It is tough to recommend any of these pass catchers for cash games, but Benjamin does have the highest ceiling of the group in a premium matchup if you’re looking with an eye toward GPPs.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams is tied for the league lead in red-zone targets (eight), and he leads his team in red-zone target share (26.7 percent) and Air Yards market share (26.96 percent). His matchup this week is not a good one, as our Matchups tool has him facing off primarily against David Amerson, one of Pro Football Focus’ top corners this year. Williams is fine in GPPs, with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings (+2.3) of the trio. Williams has a top-15 rating in our Tournament Model at five to eight percent projected ownership and only $4700.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
In Week 4 Inman broke out with 11 targets for seven receptions, 120 yards, and a touchdown after leading the team in WR snaps since Allen was lost for the year. His usage has steadily increased throughout the season, so maybe he will soon be worth serious GPP consideration. That said, right now he’s just a guy who has been targeted more than four times in only one game.
TE – Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry
Early in the week Henry looked like a chalk TE play for Week 5, but Antonio Gates reportedly will intend to play this weekend after being a limited participant in practice all week. He’s officially listed as questionable. Even if he plays, he will likely be used only situationally.
In Henry’s two games without Gates, he’s been targeted 12 times for nine receptions, 133 yards, and a TD. Even if Gates returns in Week 5, Henry should still have a role, but he’s no longer the chalk. With Gates back, Henry’s upside will likely be diminished.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Fifth in completion rate (68 percent) and fourth in touchdowns, Carr is at home against a Chargers tean that is allowing the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing QBs in 2016. In a game in which his WRs could eat, Carr has the fourth-highest ceiling on the slate. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent.
RB – Latavius Murray
Murray (turf toe) has been ruled out. The Raiders are expected to use a RB committee led by DeAndre Washington, with Jalen Richard and fullback Jamize Olawale also contributing.
RB – DeAndre Washington
Washington’s percentage of team touches has increased each week this season all the way to 18.2 percent in Week 4. The Chargers have given up the second-most receptions to opposing running backs (36). However, Washington isn’t likely to dominate the backfield in Week 5, especially since the Raiders have done better with the committee this year than they did last year with just one RB alone. Still, at his price Washington is a great value and has a FantasyLabs ownership projection that has jumped through the roof.
WR – Amari Cooper
Cooper’s lack of red-zone involvement (two targets, zero catches) definitely lowers his ceiling, and it is becoming a trend as opposed to an outlier:
That said, his 33.39 percent market share of Air yards reinforces the fact that he is still seeing valuable targets.
A breakout is imminent with Cooper, as he has left some big plays on the field in each game this year and has yet to score a touchdown. He’s a bit expensive for cash games, but the Chargers are now without their top corner Jason Verrett. Cooper is rated as a top-10 player in our Tournament Model for Week 5 and, per our Trends Tool, WRs comparable in situation, salary, and projection typically perform well above expectation on FD:
WR – Michael Crabtree
Through four games, Crabtree is leading Cooper in target market share 24.34 to 23.03 percent. He is still dwarfed by Seth Roberts in red-zone target share (18.8 to 31.3 percent), but Crabtree has still been able to find the end zone, scoring three times in Week 4. Both Crabtree and Cooper are top-20 in the league in market share of air yards. Crabtree has a high FantasyLabs ownership projection, but he has exhibited Consistency this season, topping 80 yards and seven receptions in three of his last four games.
WR – Seth Roberts
It is clear that Carr trusts Roberts in the area of the field that matters most, as he leads the team with five targets inside the 20-yard line. He has three touchdowns through the first four weeks. At $3,400 on DK, he’s a GPP flyer who is no good to you unless he gets in the end zone, as he is averaging just 2.5 receptions and 20.75 yards per game. Still, he’s shown the ability to get into the end zone.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford (knee) missed the end of last week’s game as well as Wednesday’s practice, but he returned to practice on Thursday and is questionable for Week 5.
If he does play, he’ll be facing a Chargers defense that has given up the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends so far this season. If he doesn’t play, Mychal Rivera will likely serve as the primary pass-catching TE.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
