The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Broncos at Saints
Denver travels to New Orleans in Week 10 to take on Drew Brees and Co. at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football. This game currently has a 48.5-point total and the Broncos are 2.5-point road underdogs. Denver is implied by Vegas for 23 points; the Saints, 25.5 points.
Denver Broncos
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Trevor Siemian
Siemian threw for multiple touchdowns for the first time since Week 3 against the Raiders last week on Sunday Night Football. This week he has another nice matchup, a Saints defense that offers the top Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate by a large margin and ranks 29th against the pass, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He’s the highest rated DK QB in the Levitan Model. At just five to eight percent projected ownership, Siemian is actually in play this week in the Superdome.
RB – Devontae Booker
With all the attention on the pass game and people worried about Kapri Bibbs getting more involved, Booker could be an elite tournament play against a Saints defense that ranks 25th against the run and has allowed FD RBs to score 3.4 points above salary-based expectations over the past year. He has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent.
RB – Kapri Bibbs
Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak has said that he plans to get Bibbs more involved this week, but that could mean almost anything. Last game Booker still out-touched Bibbs 11-3, although Bibbs did break a 69-yard touchdown reception. The Saints are 31st in pass DVOA against RBs, but Booker is still the favorite to lead this backfield in touches in Week 10.
WR – Demaryius Thomas
Per our NFL Matchups tool, Thomas will likely run most of his routes against cornerback Delvin Breaux, who has a below-average Pro Football Focus grade of 65.3. This Saints secondary is poor, which bodes well for Thomas, who (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) is top-10 in target market share (27.59 percent) and is a large part of the concentrated Denver offense. This is obviously a dream matchup for WRs — the Saints rank 29th in pass DVOA — and Thomas is in consideration for all contest formats. He currently rates as the No. 9 DK WR in our Cash Model, with the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus and a projected ownership of 17-20 percent in the Millionaire Maker.
WR – Emmanuel Sanders
There’s a lot to like about Sanders, even with Siemian under center. He has a top-20 four-game target share of 24.14 percent and is also leading the team by a large margin in target share of Air Yards. Sanders has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FD. He’s projected to have nine to 12 percent ownership in the Sunday Million. Per our Trends Tool, road FD WRs comparable in salary and projection typically smash value:
WR – Jordan Norwood
He caught two balls on four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. The score was his first of the year and is likely an outlier instead of a sign of things to come. Norwood dreams of the day when someone accidentally rosters him in a guaranteed prize pool.
TE – Virgil Green
The red-zone looks from the preseason have not carried over to Green: He has just three over six games this year. Siemian doesn’t look to his TEs nearly enough to make Green even a viable punt play. The Saints do rank 28th against TEs in pass DVOA, so this is a good matchup for Green, but he hasn’t taken advantage of good matchups in the past. Why start now? A fluky TD could happen, but there are better TE investments in this slate.
New Orleans Saints
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Drew Brees
Brees has been on fire lately, shredding his home/away split narratives and averaging 28.4 DK points in his last four games (two home, two away). He’ll draw what should be his toughest matchup of the season this week, taking on the Broncos at home. Denver’s defense ranks second in pass DVOA and is holding QBs to a -2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus. Only Cam Newton has scored over 20-plus fantasy points against them, and that came in Week 1. Brees has a 6.3-point projected floor, making him a risky play for cash games. He does, however, deserve GPP consideration in case his hot streak continues.
RB – Mark Ingram
After getting benched in Week 8, Ingram had his best game of the season, totaling 34.1 DK points. Unfortunately, the Saints backfield looks like it could be a full blown timeshare, as Tim Hightower has recently emerged and has the support of head coach Sean Payton. Fortunately for Ingram and Hightower, this Denver run defense has struggled, giving up 128.6 yards per game (29th) and ranking 20th in run DVOA. While the timeshare will limit the ceiling of each player, they should both be usable as what-the-heck RB plays this week in GPPs.
RB – Tim Hightower
Hightower has out-snapped and out-carried Ingram the last two weeks and has cemented a role for himself in this offense. He’s averaged over 25 touches per game during that span and makes for an intriguing play this week. He and Ingram both have FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight percent.
RB – Travaris Cadet
The recent Ingram/Hightower time share has removed all value from Cadet. He has two total touches in the last two games.
WR – Brandin Cooks
Per our Matchups tool, Cooks should run most of his routes against Kayvon Webster. Although Webster’s allowing a low 0.14 fantasy points per route defended, he also has played only 18 coverage snaps this year (per PFF). Cooks shouldn’t have much trouble eating this guy like a shredded chicken burrito. Cooks is averaging 7.5 targets and 16 FD points per game over the last four games. He has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent but has the highest projected floor (7.5 points) among the Saints starting trio of wideouts. He leads all Saints receivers in Air Yards:
WR – Willie Snead
Snead draws perhaps the toughest matchup on the inside against nickel corner Chris Harris Jr., PFF’s fifth-ranked cornerback. Slot receivers haven’t been able to do much against Harris this season, and Snead could be in for a long game. He has the lowest median (9.7), ceiling (13.3), and floor (6.1) FD projections among the Saints starting WRs.
WR – Michael Thomas
Since the Week 5 bye, Thomas leads all Saints WRs in receptions and receiving yards. That may continue in Week 10, when he should run most of his routes against Bradley Roby, PFF’s 110th-ranked CB (out of 117 qualifying CBs). Thomas has averaged nine targets over his last three games and is coming off a 5-73-2 performance against San Francisco. He leads all FD WRs in Upside this week.
TE – Coby Fleener
Fleener has seen his snap percentage go down in six successive weeks. He has played fewer than 35 percent of the snaps the past two weeks. The Broncos rank fifth in pass DVOA against tight ends, and only Hunter Henry has been able to score more than 15 DK points against them. At $3,300 DK, Fleener seems like a player to fade with better cheap options to pursue.
News Updates
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