Every Friday, my colleague Chris Raybon and I break down our favorite props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast. My Week 1 picks went 5-0, and that was before we had 2021 data to inform our decisions like we do now, so I feel even better about my picks for Week 2.
Let’s dive in!
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Saints QB Jameis Winston Over 230.5 Pass Yards
Winston’s touchdown rate will come back down to Earth after throwing five TDs in Week 1, but his passing attempts (20) and yardage (148) should go way up. He didn’t have to throw much in the 38-3 route over the Packers, but now with the Saints positioned as 3.5-point favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), there should be a more neutral game script against the Panthers.
I’m projecting this closer to 246.5 and would play it up to 235.5 yards.
Broncos RB Melvin Gordon Over 45.5 Rush Yards
Everyone wants to see rookie Javonte Williams take over Denver’s backfield, but for now, it still belongs to MG3.
According to the NFL’s NextGenStats, he reached 21.5 mph on his 70-yard touchdown run in the season opener against the Giants, so he’s still got it. And the Broncos should lean heavily on him as 6-point favorites against the Jaguars this week.
I’m projecting this closer to 57.5 and would pick it up to 49.5 yards.
Titans RB Derrick Henry Over 84.5 Rush Yards
This line seems like an overreaction to Week 1.
I expect the Titans’ offense to bounce back against the Seahawks. Rain is also in the forecast (shocker), which could mean that Tennessee leans on Henry. He went over this number in 11-of-16 games last season (68%).
I’m projecting this closer to 95.5 and would take it up to 88.5 yards.
Raiders WR Henry Ruggs Under 43.5 Rec Yards
We know what type of player Ruggs is by now: A low-volume, home-run threat.
The Year 2 WR has yet to see more than five targets in any of his 14 career games. And he’s cleared 43.5 receiving yards in only five of those 14. When he has gone over this line in the past, he’s sailed over it. Otherwise, he carries a very low floor and low median.
I have this projected closer to 34.5 and would take down to 40.5 yards.
Rams TE Tyler Higbee Over 40.5 Rec Yards
I’m saving the best for last.
Higbee had a solid Week 1 with five catches for 68 yards, but his production is about to erupt — he had a 100% snap share, 93% routes run and 24% target share in the season opener with fellow TE Gerald Everett no longer in town.
Matthew Stafford is going to elevate the offense to what we saw in 2018-19 while Sean McVay is going to scheme plays to create mismatches for Higbee.
Buy low on Higbee while you can.
I’m projecting this at 51.5 and would take it up to 46.5 yards.