There are a lot of things the NFL doesn’t get right, but marketing is not one of them. Schedule-makers have saved the linchpin game of the week for Sunday Night Football. Irrespective of what happens before the regular-season finale, there will still be plenty on the line as the Miami Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills. The winner secures an AFC East title, but the outcome will have a cascading effect on the rest of the playoff picture. All we can do is tune in to see how it all plays out.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Bills-Dolphins NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Allen Lower 32.5 Passing Attempts
The last thing the Bills can afford to do is get in a track meet with the Dolphins on their own turf. We’ve seen it in virtually every game this season. Teams try to keep pace with the Dolphins offense, but they end up giving them the ball back and letting Miami inflict more damage. Expect a more calculated, clock-controlling effort from Buffalo, resulting in fewer pass attempts from Josh Allen.
Buffalo has embraced a more possession-driven approach to their game-planning over the past few weeks. Since Week 15, the Bills are down to 61.7 offensive plays per game. Before that decrease, Sean McDermott had his team churning out 65.6 plays per game. It’s clear those adjustments have yielded the intended results, as the Bills have gone 3-0 over that stretch.
Consequently, Josh Allen’s passing volume has decreased substantially. Allen has totaled just 66 passing attempts over that three-game sample, averaging a paltry 22.0 per game. Not surprisingly, the Bills’ field general hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes in a contest, resulting in the lowest three-game total of his career.
The Bills have amended their game-planning in the latter part of the campaign and it’s paying dividends. Expect them to maintain their slowed tempo against the Dolphins, as they aim to keep their opponent’s high-octane offense off the field. The unintended consequence of this scheme is fewer pass attempts for Allen. We expect him to fall beneath his 32.5 total on Sunday Night Football.
Dawson Knox Lower 12.5 Receiving Yards
We all knew it was just a matter of time before Dalton Kincaid usurped Dawson Knox on the depth chart, but that time has come sooner than some expected. After Knox went down with an injury partway through the season, Kincaid emerged as the preferred pass-catching tight end. Although Knox still plays a role on offense, he’s given up his pass-catching responsibilities.
Knox returned in Week 14, helping the Bills knock off the Kansas City Chiefs in a much-needed divisional showdown.The fifth-year pro caught all three of his targets for 36 yards in that contest; however, that would be the pinnacle of Knox’s offensive performances the rest of the way.
Since then, Knox has been targeted just two times, with both of those passes coming against the lowly Los Angeles Chargers. Otherwise, the Bills tight end has been used exclusively in a pass-blocking role, failing to draw any targets in the other two games.
Altogether, Knox has played 134 snaps since returning from injury. He’s been targeted just five times on those plays, representing a lackluster 3.7% target rate. Clearly, Knox’s role no longer involves inclusion in the passing attack, making his 12.5 receiving-yard total an unreachable projection.
Tyreek Hill Lower 97.5 Receiving Yards
Arguably, this is our most controversial pick of the contest, albeit featuring one of the highest totals on the board. Tyreek Hill enters this pivotal AFC East battle with a 97.5 receiving-yard projection, a reflection of what he brings to the field on a weekly basis. Still, we’ve seen a less effective version of Hill since he came back from an ankle injury, supporting that the bar may be set too high against a top-tier Bills defense.
Hill went down with the ailment in Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans, precipitating his absence the following week. Since returning two weeks ago, Hill has posted a disappointing 57.7% catch rate, hauling in just 15 of 26 targets. Predictably, fewer catches correlate with diminished production, with Hill totaling 175 receiving yards across those outings.
Hill’s standing is sure to take a hit against a fierce Bills secondary. Buffalo allows the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (198.4) and fifth-fewest yards per completion (9.2) this season. More importantly, the Bills defense is trending upward, limiting opponents to a paltry 157.3 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per completion over their last three.
Decreased productivity from Hill combined with a more fierce Bills’ defensive front will make it hard for the Dolphins wideout to surpass his receiving-yards projection. Miami needs Hill to be at his best, but we’re betting he comes up short. We’re expecting Hill to fall below 97.5 receiving yards.
