The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Giants at Vikings
In Week 4, the Vikings host the first ever Monday Night Football game held at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. They are currently 4.5-point favorites, implied to score 24 points. The visiting Giants are implied to score just 19.5 points this week.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
You may not remember the Vikings smashing the Giants 49-17 in Week 16 last season, but I bet Eli does. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions (one that was returned for a touchdown) against this Vikings defense that remains largely unchanged from that meeting nine months ago. #RevengeNarrative. Minnesota ranks fourth against the pass this season (per Football Outsiders) and has given up just 15.8 fantasy points per game against quarterbacks. Per our Player Models, the Vikings have held opposing quarterbacks to a -1.50 Plus/Minus in the past 12 months. If you’re playing Monday slates, there are certainly safer (and likely better) options, but Eli’s top-10 projected ceiling makes him suitable for the narrative play in GPPs.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Jennings did not play last week due to a thumb injury. He’s questionable for Week 4 and a likely game-day decision. If he plays, he’s in for a tough matchup. The Vikings have allowed just 172 rushing yards to running backs (57.33 per game) through three games this season. They are one of only three teams not to allow a rushing touchdown yet and rank fourth against the run this season (per Football Outsiders). According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings defense leads the league at 4.4 yards per play surrendered. Jennings is injured, potentially unable to contribute on passing downs, and playing as a road underdog. RBs in similar situations have previously yielded a -0.21 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He is not someone the data suggests playing this week.
RB – Orleans Darkwa
Darkwa handled 47.62 percent of the Giants’ carries last week with Jennings sidelined. This week Shane Vereen is out. If Jennings plays, Darkwa is extremely risky and unstable. But if Jennings is out, Darkwa immediately becomes intriguing on both sites in all formats as a minimum-priced bell cow.
RB – Bobby Rainey
Rainey is a strong receiver out of the backfield and will likely serve as the pass-catching back in this game. An an ancillary back in Tampa Bay, Rainey had 33 receptions for 315 yards and a touchdown on 45 targets.
WR – Odell Beckham
Beckham has a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel (where he has a top-five projected floor), and is currently a top-10 rated wide receiver in the Bales Player Model. Minnesota has been great against the pass but below average (ranked 17th) defending No. 1 receivers (per Football Outsiders). Even with Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz playing well, Beckham has gotten 28.30 percent of the Giants’ targets this season. Our Matchups tool has OBJ frequently running routes versus Trae Waynes, who has an ugly 46.6 grade from PFF. Since 2014, Odell has played in eight prime time games. In those games he has posted a +5.32 Plus/Minus on FD with 62.5 percent Consistency. He has scored more than 31 FD points in two of those games and averaged 18.59 FD points. It’s safe to deploy Beckham in Monday slates.
WR – Sterling Shepard
Shepard is second on the Giants with a 16.98 percent target share, and he hasn’t been targeted fewer than seven times since Week 1. He’s also second (to Beckham) with 24.85 percent of the Giants’ air yards this season. The rookie should be covered by some combination of Captain Munnerlyn and Terence Newman; they will make life difficult for him. Similarly-priced WRs on DK playing as road dogs have historically provided a +2.72 Plus/Minus with 55.8 percent Consistency. Shepard has been very consistent thus far, but this will be his toughest test yet.
WR – Victor Cruz
The V-Cruz remix has been better than expected. He’s gotten the third-most targets on the Giants and has produced 21.15 percent of the team’s air yards this season. Cruz has been targeted three times in the red zone, including twice inside the 10-yard line. Going with a contrarian stack of Cruz and Eli would be a surefire way to differentiate yourself from other Monday GPP players.
TE – Will Tye and Larry Donnell
Nothing has changed with the Giants’ TE situation. It’s a time share with neither player separating from the other. They’ve seen an equal amount of targets on the season and have split snaps. Donnell played more snaps than Tye last week, but Tye got more targets. Try and figure that one out. Until something changes in the players’ usage, they’re only fringe GPP darts at best.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford didn’t tear up the Panthers defense in Week 3, but he didn’t turn the ball over and led the Vikings to a hard fought victory. That’s great, but it’s also a gentle reminder that Bradford isn’t one to put up big fantasy numbers on a weekly basis: In his last 16 starts, he hasn’t topped 25 DraftKings points even once. The good news is that Bradford has proven he’s capable of producing against the league’s worst defenses against quarterbacks, as evidenced by his +2.39 Plus/Minus against the league’s 10 worst defenses in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks in 2015. He’ll have a chance to continue this success against a Giants defense that has allowed 4.3 points above salary-based expectations to quarterbacks over the past 12 months — the third-worst mark in the league. Bradford is priced at $5,100 on DK with a 94 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
Although Asiata may be the Vikings’ ‘starting’ running back, McKinnon received 10 more touches and 17 more snaps in Week 3. He wasn’t great against the Panthers, but his 45 rushing yards were nearly as many as Adrian Peterson gained during the first two weeks of the season combined. The Vikings are averaging a league-low 2.1 yards per carry this season, but it’s not crazy to think the Peterson-less offense could succeed now that everyone in the stadium doesn’t know who the ball is going to. The Vikings also just finished playing three of the top-12 teams in average fantasy points allowed to RBs in 2015. Fantasy points could be easier to come by against a Giants defense that finished in the bottom-eight in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs in 2015. McKinnon is priced at $3,900 on DK and has the second-highest projected ceiling among all RBs priced under $4,000 on DK.
RB – Matt Asiata
Asiata surprisingly didn’t see his touches increase from Week 2 to Week 3. He’s yet to top 15 rushing yards in a game this season despite having at least four carries in each of the Vikings’ three games. It’s clear that the team will be going with McKinnon in most situations, but Asiata should remain the team’s goal-line back. The Vikings haven’t yet had a rush attempt inside the five-yard line in 2016, but Asiata had 12 such carries in 2014 and converted six into touchdowns. He’s cheaper than McKinnon on both DK and FD but is better priced on DK, where he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating. The Vikings could look to pound the ball against a Giants defense that doesn’t have a linebacker graded higher than 40th by PFF in 2015.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs lost his status as the league’s leading receiver after gaining just 40 receiving yards against the Panthers. He’s still had a great start to the 2016 season and will look to continue his especially dominant play inside the confines of U.S. Bank Stadium:
As our Trends tool shows, Diggs has posted a +5.97 Plus/Minus and averaged 15.56 DraftKings points in his seven career home games. Although the Vikings like to move him all around the formation, the Giants are now expected to shadow him with cornerback Janoris Jenkins when Diggs is lined up outside. Jenkins is a top-20 coverage corner per PFF, but Diggs is still in a good spot. He’s priced at $6,100 on DK and has the third-highest projected ceiling among all WRs priced under $6,500 on DK.
WR – Charles Johnson
In nine games since the start of the 2015 season, Johnson has totaled 23 targets, 12 receptions, 147 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. This comes out to an average stat line of 1.33-16.33-0. It’s perplexing why he is still playing above first-round pick Laquon Treadwell, and Charles shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option as long as he’s consistently performing this abysmally. Johnson’s 5.1-point median projection is the lowest among all alleged No. 2 wide receivers in the league.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen has averaged fewer than five targets per game this season and isn’t a recommended fantasy option as the No. 3 receiver on a team that has called the fifth-fewest pass plays in the league this season. He’s priced at $3,100 on DK with a +2.3 Projected Plus/Minus but has a very low ceiling and floor.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph led all Vikings pass catchers with 10 targets in Week 3. He’s now averaging 8.7 targets per game, which ranks second among all tight ends. It may be three years later than most anticipated, but the Kyle Rudolph breakout season may finally be upon us. He’s always been successful when given a featured role in the offense, as evidenced by his 15.12 PPR points per game in 13 career games with eight or more targets. There’s a real chance that Bradford is the best quarterback Rudolph has played with and it’s paying off: He’s currently the fourth-highest scoring TE on DK. He’ll look to have his true coming out party in a dream matchup against a Giants defense that finished dead last in Plus/Minus allowed to TEs in 2015. Rudolph is just the 14th-most expensive TE on DK despite the great start to 2016, and his +6.2 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest among all TEs in Week 4.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
