The Week 4 NFL Dashboard
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Bills at Patriots
No Vegas lines have been set for this game as of yet due to the uncertainty at the quarterback position in New England.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
In nine of 14 games last season, Taylor rushed for 40 or more yards. With his top deep threat hobbled, 70.2 percent of his completions have been for fewer than ten yards (the highest mark in the NFL), but at least head coach Rex Ryan finally loosened the reigns a bit on Taylor in Week 3, as he did more as a runner than he had previously. Taylor had a massive 76 yards rushing on nine carries, including a 20-yard rushing touchdown against the Cardinals. As our Trends Tool shows, Taylor has averaged just 16.10 DraftKings points and a poor -0.92 Plus/Minus in 2016. At least Taylor has historically performed well against the Patriots:
With a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent in the Milly Maker, Taylor could be worth the risk if he continues to use his legs. He has a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings and the fifth-highest rating in Adam Levitan’s Player Model, which emphasizes value in QBs.
RB – LeSean McCoy
The Bills depend on the running game for offense more than another team in the league (42.3 percent of total yardage). McCoy continues to dominate this backfield (64 percent rushing share, 50 percent market share inside the 10-yard line), and even in an offense that has struggled McCoy has proven to be largely matchup-proof after shredding the Cardinals for over 100 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns last week.
This week he faces a Patriots team that ranked 10th against the run (per Football Outsiders) and gave up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year. Similar to Lamar Miller in the extent to which his team relies on him, McCoy might be able to match Miller’s Week 3 performance against the Pats in which he totaled 107 yards on 25 touches. With Sammy Watkins out, McCoy seems to be the only game in town. He’s a risky cash play as a road underdog, but his locked-in volume and 96 percent Bargain Rating on FD make him a reasonable play in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Mike Gillislee
Seeing just 16 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 3 and just five touches on the season, Gillislee is an afterthought in the Bills offense. His 1.3-point floor on FD is the third lowest on the slate. That he managed to turn one of those touches into a TD is nice for him but meaningless for us.
WR – Sammy Watkins
Watkins has been placed on the Injured Reserve. He’s out till as least Week 12.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods saw 32 percent of team targets with Watkins out in Week 3, but he’s not really capable of being a No. 1 WR. Right now, he leads the team with 20 percent of the targets on the season, and he’s third with 19.61 percent of the Air Yards. Woods will be tested against a Patriots secondary that PFF has ranked as the third-best in the league. He’s a limited upside play with a ceiling of just 11.8 DK points this week, but at $3400 he might be a reasonable punt play if he sees eight targets for a second week in a row.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
The speedster is fourth on the team in target share at just 13.33 percent, but he is overwhelmingly first in share of Air Yards at 34.71 percent. If there’s someone who can burn the Patriots deep in Watkins’ absence, it’s Goodwin, and he should get a few extra targets with Watkins out.
WR – Greg Salas
The Patriots tied for the sixth-most big plays allowed last season at 2.25 per game. Of course, Salas is primarily a return man on a team that doesn’t use its WRs all that much in the first place. He has potential for extra targets with Watkins out but is consistently someone who shouldn’t be relied on for fantasy production.
TE – Charles Clay
The team leader in offensive snaps, Clay has a target share of just 14.67 percent, even with Watkins hobbled to start the year. He has largely underwhelmed in a golden opportunity thus far, but Bills offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has said that he wants to get Clay more involved. Clay is averaging just four targets per game, down nearly two targets from 2015. It doesn’t help that the Patriots gave up the fourth-fewest DK points per game to tight ends last year (9.8). That said, Clay’s $2,600 salary, 98 percent Bargain Rating, and 11.3-point DK ceiling make him a punt consideration with Watkins out.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo and/or Jacoby Brissett
Both Garoppolo (shoulder) and Brissett (thumb) practiced this week and look likely to suit up for the Pats with Garoppolo probably (though not certainly) in line to be the starter. Both are listed as questionable.
Whoever is behind center has a nice matchup against a Bills team that currently ranks 25th in defense per FO and has really struggled to get to the quarterback, with sacks on just 4.43 percent of snaps over the past 12 months. The Patriots have scored 27 points per game this season — the fifth-most in the league — but that team consistency doesn’t make these QBs safe. They’re both recovering from injuries and are likely better in tournaments than cash games due primarily to the fact that they have low floors (and aren’t Tom Brady).
RB – LeGarrette Blount
Blount currently sits atop the NFL in rushing yards per game (99.3) through three weeks and has an +11.89 DK Plus/Minus (2nd highest at the position) without registering a single target. The volume he has gotten in the run game and in the red zone has been unbelievable.
His volume onslaught should continue this last week without Brady at QB. The Patriots have run a league-high 80 percent of their plays this year with a lead, aiding Blount’s volume-fueled campaign. Even in what looked like a tough matchup last week against the Texans, Blount smashed, and now he gets a Bills team that this year has given up to RBs the league’s third-most rushing touchdowns (five). Blount’s a fine play in cash games at home.
RB – James White
He’s averaged 4.3 targets per game — a 14.94 percent target share overall — but he has just eight carries on the season. We keep waiting to see signs of the White of 2015 but the reality is that he is now almost entirely dependent on the passing game for production and he is only averaging 5.3 touches per game. At a position so heavily predicated on volume, White is a tough sell even at $3,600 on DK.
WR – Julian Edelman
It is tough to trust any passing options in this offense, given the quarterback situation, but Edelman is as good a guess as any to be targeted heavily in the short-to-intermediate passing game with a 27.59 percent target share. Of course, it’s fair to assume the volume in the passing game may be capped for one more week. Per our Trends tool, players comparable to Edelman in salary and situation have historically performed 2.07 DK points above expectation. Still, he’s hard to trust this week.
WR – Chris Hogan
The leader in market share of Air Yards is Hogan at an astounding 30.44 percent. Unfortunately, Hogan just isn’t getting the volume: He’s turned his 13 opportunities into eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown — but he’s gotten only 13 opportunities. You could do worse for a flyer in tournaments, as he has big-play upside relative to his $3,700 salary, but Garoppolo and Brissett have thrown for only 8.1 and 6.4 yards in regards to average depth of throw (aDOT), marks that are well below league average.
WR – Danny Amendola
While it is highly unlikely Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance, he does currently own 33.3 percent of the passing targets inside the 20-yard line. He’s a GPP-only play on a week-to-week basis, but he definitely will get snaps and be involved in this offense. You can’t entirely write off a guy who gets a third of his team’s red-zone targets.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
In his first game of the season, Gronkowski played just 23 percent of the offensive snaps. He also ran just two routes. Gronk was primarily a blocker and put up a fat zero on the score sheet on a single target. With his usage likely to increase, now could be a ‘pay up to be contrarian’ moment in GPPs, as his price has dipped below that of Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen on FanDuel. He will likely be low-owned, as he has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent in the Sunday Million. Gronk is currently the fourth-rated FD TE in our Tournament Model, with the fourth-highest ceiling projection at the position.
Gronk is listed as questionable.
TE – Martellus Bennett
It is hard to be excited about any player in the passing game this week, but Bennett has been the definition of volatility this year. With Gronkowski back in the fold, Bennett may have a difficult time improving on that 6.62 percent target share anytime soon. He’s projected to score just 6.8 points on FanDuel in against a Bills team that has yet to surrender a touchdown to a tight end.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
