The Week 3 NFL Dashboard
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Vikings at Panthers
The Panthers are seven-point favorites over the injury-riddled Vikings. The Vikings’ implied team total of 18 points is the third-lowest mark in Week 3. The Panthers are implied to score 25 points but will need to overcome a tough Vikings defense. It’ll be sunny with no rain on Sunday as the No. 1 overall picks from the 2010 and 2011 drafts square off.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Sam Bradford
Bradford’s first appearance as a Viking could not have gone better. Despite having a run game that produced just 30 rushing yards on 22 carries, Bradford threw for two touchdowns and averaged 9.23 yards per attempt. There’s a real possibility that Stefon Diggs may be the best wide receiver Bradford has ever played with. Although he’s played just one game, Bradford’s 0.53 fantasy points per dropback ranks seventh among all quarterbacks. With Adrian Peterson out for the foreseeable future, the offense could become much more pass-friendly. Bradford is priced at $5,300 on DraftKings with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent; he’ll face a Panthers defense that allowed the fourth-fewest average fantasy points to QBs in 2015.
RB – Adrian Peterson
Peterson will be undergoing surgery Thursday to repair his torn meniscus. He will likely miss several months but hopes to be back by the playoffs.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
Vikings writer Matt Vensel reported Monday that he expects a 65/35 split of carries between Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. This is good news for McKinnon, as he received just 53 percent of the Vikings’ touches during his nine games of splitting lead back duties with Asiata in 2014, per PFR. While McKinnon may be the more talented back, Asiata could seize the offense’s more fantasy-friendly opportunities. He received 12 carries inside the five-yard line in 2014, compared to zero for McKinnon. Additionally, Asiata has more targets than McKinnon since 2014. Regardless of how the Vikings’ running back touches turn out, the team is averaging a league-low 1.9 yards per carry and will face PFF’s third-best front seven in Carolina in Week 3.
RB – Matt Asiata
Although Asiata scored nine touchdowns in 2014 as the Vikings’ goal-line back, he’s done very little else in his five-year career. He’s averaged just 3.5 yards on the ground and 6.7 through the air. Asiata has one run of 20-plus yards on 250 career carries. With all that said, he finished 2014 with the 20th-most DraftKings points among all running backs. McKinnon has served as the team’s featured backup since then, but Asiata could be the better fantasy option if he once again vultures McKinnon’s goal-line and passing-down work. He costs the minimum on DK and his +5.5 Projected Plus/Minus is one of the highest in Week 3.
WR – Stefon Diggs
Diggs leads the NFL with 285 receiving yards and his performance against the Packers demonstrated his versatility as a receiver:
The most impressive part about Diggs’ start to 2016 is how efficiently he’s done it. He’s averaged 14.2 yards and 2.52 fantasy points per target, the second- and seventh-best rates among all wide receivers, respectively. He could see a lot of Bené Benwikere against the Panthers, PFF’s 15th-highest graded corner in 2015. Diggs is priced at only $5,100 on DraftKings and has a high +5.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
WR – Charles Johnson
Johnson is now up to 20 receiving yards on the year as the Vikings’ No. 2 receiver. He did catch both targets Bradford threw his way in Week 2 but has averaged just 0.62 fantasy points per target on the season. While Johnson’s role in the offense could increase as the team transitions away from Peterson, it’ll be tough against a Panthers defense that has allowed 6.62 yards per play over the past 12 months — the fourth-best mark in the league.
WR – Adam Thielen
Thielen has outproduced Johnson in nearly every possible statistic except snaps played. Thielen ranks as PFF’s 42nd-highest graded receiver through two weeks and he’s caught 80 percent of all passes thrown his way. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him pass Johnson on the depth chart soon, but for now he’s a very risky, low-floor play due to his low snap count and non-existent red-zone presence.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph has now compiled eight or more targets in consecutive weeks. He is fourth among all tight ends in targets and has averaged a respectable 1.41 fantasy points per target. Rudolph has historically performed well with this level of workload:
Although the Panthers finished 2015 as a top-10 defense in both average fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends, Rudolph’s projected 10.8-point ceiling on FD is the second-highest among all tight ends priced under $5,500.
Carolina Panthers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Cam Newton
Second to only Matt Ryan in fantasy points this season, Newton continues to be a high-performing quarterback that steadily produces points. As seven-point home favorites, Newton has historically thrived in this situation, averaging a +9.97 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Minnesota has held quarterbacks in check this year, limiting Aaron Rodgers to 18.4 points and Marcus Mariota to 17.7 points. Going from a top-five team in plays per game (San Francisco) to a bottom-five (Minnesota) one, we should expect a decrease in volume for Newton and a lower ceiling compared to his 30.8 points he scored last week.
RB – Fozzy Whittaker
Following Jonathan Stewart‘s injury last week, Whittaker ran for a career-high in both rushing attempts (16) and rushing yards (100). Unfortunately for Whittaker, the team activated Cameron Artis-Payne and looks like this will be a full-blown committee in Stewart’s absence. Whittaker has emerged as a viable receiving outlet for Newton, but against this Minnesota front seven that has allowed opposing running backs the fourth-fewest fantasy points (-0.30 Plus/Minus), we may have to wait to utilize him.
RB – Cameron Artis-Payne
When Stewart missed time last year, CAP led the team in rushing attempts but failed to make a big impression fantasy-wise. CAP’s six Pro Trends and $4,600 salary on FanDuel make him a bit more intriguing there, but our expectations should be held in check. A nine-point projected ceiling doesn’t even hit 2x value, and this has the looks of an RBBC situation.
RB – Mike Tolbert
Tolbert could see a modest bump in usage, but it will be minimal.
WR – Kelvin Benjamin
Averaging 10.5 targets per game, Benjamin has re-emerged as Newton’s favorite target so far this season. Benjamin gets a nice matchup against Trae Waynes this week, who’s been picked on mercilessly by quarterbacks so far this season, getting targeted on 32 percent of the routes he’s defended. Seeing 30 percent of the Panthers’ target market share, Benjamin should be in for another fine performance this week as a reliable cash or GPP play.
WR – Devin Funchess
Funchess is currently averaging -2.7 points below expectation on FanDuel this season. Slot cornerback Captain Munnerlyn has been spectacular to start the year, allowing just 0.18 fantasy points per route defended. This doesn’t look to be the game to expect a bounce-back from Funchess, considering he’s seeing only 11.4 percent of the team’s targets and lining up against a lockdown corner.
WR – Ted Ginn
After hauling in just one catch for five yards in Week 1, Ginn caught a 52-yarder last week, reminding us that there’s always a chance for him to create a big play. Ginn isn’t seeing much volume (just 2.5 targets per game) but could potentially take one to the house against 38-year-old Terence Newman, who is ProFootballFocus’ 55th-ranked cornerback this year. Ginn is only $3,700 on DK and boasts a 97 percent Bargain Rating there.
TE – Greg Olsen
Olsen has started out hot once again this year, currently averaging +10.5 points over expectation so far on DK. Minnesota ranks middle of the pack in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against tight ends, as they were able to hold Delanie Walker in check but had middling success against the Packers’ tight ends. Olsen has seen 17 targets over the first two games of the season with a 24.3 percent target market share, and he should remain in play this week with the Panthers seeing the sixth-most red zone trips per game.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
