NFL DFS and betting expert Chris Raybon runs through every Week 10 matchup to reveal his cash game and GPP recommendations as well as his spread and over/under picks. He also outlines his DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Jaguars at Colts
DFS Plays
It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville plays it on defense this week.
After being a primarily man coverage team for much of the year, the Jaguars stymied the Bills with mostly zone looks last week. The Colts, however, are averaging 2.7 yards per target fewer against man coverage this season. The Jags have been a run funnel defense, ranking eighth in DVOA on the ground but 32nd through the air.
Carson Wetnz, Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor are each high-risk, high-reward GPP plays. The Jags DST is worth a contrarian flier based on their dominance last week in a 9-6 win over Buffalo.
For the Jags, this is a spot to target Laviska Shenault Jr., Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold while fading Marvin Jones, who has seen fewer than half of his targets come against zone coverage this season, which the Colts play at the seventh-highest rate in the league. (Note that Trevor Lawrence’s yards per attempt is 2.0 yards higher versus zone than man.)
Even if he returns, James Robinson won’t be a viable option against a Colts defense that is ranked first in run defense DVOA.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Carson Wentz, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., WR Laviska Shenault Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, TE Dan Arnold, DST Jaguars
Betting Pick
The Jaguars out-schemed the Bills last week and are the right play by the numbers against a middling divisional opponent, but I’m still not betting on Urban Meyer.
Pick: Pass
Browns at Patriots
DFS Plays
D’Ernest Johnson may see every backfield snap with Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton and John Kelly on the COVID list and Kareem Hunt still not back from IR. That’s why Johnson has to be locked into cash game lineups against a run-funnel Patriots defense that ranks sixth in passing DVOA and 17th against the run, as well as 29th in DVOA on passes to RBs.
The Browns’ passing game is too unpredictable and low-volume to target in this spot. Bill Belichuck will likely limit Jarvis Landry with a defense that ranks top-three in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Co. will also have their work cut out for them as the Patriots rank first in DVOA against TEs.
In GPPs, Johnson can be stacked with the Browns DST against Mac Jones, as Cleveland is second in pressure rate (28.4%) while Jones’ turnover-worthy plays go from 1.2% to 5.7% under duress.
The Browns are allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to WR1s, so this is a good spot to target Jakobi Meyers. The Browns are 12th in DVOA versus TEs, but Jonnu Smith is also worth a dart throw, as reports say that he could see work in the backfield with Damien Harris (concussion) out and Rhamondre Stevenson (concussion) likely to miss.
Brandon Bolden will fill in as the lead back with J.J Taylor backing him up. As the Browns are top-five in rushing DVOA, I would only target Bolden, who has run 74 more routes than Taylor this season.
- Cash Plays: RB D’Ernest Johnson
- GPP Plays: RB Brandon Bolden, WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Jonnu Smith, DST Browns
Betting Pick
Without Tom Brady, the Patriots are no longer an intimidating team to bet against in Foxboro.
The Patriots are 1-4 at home this season, with their only win coming against the lowly Jets. If home field isn’t the advantage it used to be for the Patriots, they are in trouble here, as they are clearly the inferior team: The Browns rank sixth in overall DVOA while the Patriots rank 13th.
Both teams have banged up backfields, but Cleveland is in better shape, as the Browns have a better run defense (fifth in DVOA) than the Patriots (17th). Plus, D’Ernest Johnson showed he can be a workhorse with 24 touches for 168 total yards and a touchdown in a start against the Broncos three weeks ago.
But the biggest edge Cleveland could enjoy in this spot is with its defensive pressure against rookie Mac Jones. The Browns generate pressure at the third-highest rate in the league (28.4%), and when under pressure, Jones’ completion rate drops from 72% to 56%, his yards per attempt dip from 7.7 to 5.5, and his turnover-worthy plays more than quadruple from 1.2% to 5.7%.
Pick: Browns +2.5 (to +1)
Falcons at Cowboys
DFS Plays
Dak Prescott is cash-viable in a prime bounce-back spot against a Falcons defense that’s ranked bottom-five in pass defense DVOA. The Falcons struggle to get pressure off the edge, ranking 31st in both pressure rate (18.6%) and sack rate (3.8%), which should soften the blow of the Cowboys being without left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle).
Atlanta is below-average in DVOA versus every position, so Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliott are all in play in tournaments. Schultz ran 91% of the routes last week and is cash-viable on FanDuel with Blake Jarwin (hip) on IR.
Cordarelle Patterson is averaging 92.1 yards from scrimmage this season and continues to be a must-play in cash games.
Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in targets (18), catches (12) and yards (216) versus man coverage and is a high-upside GPP option against a Cowboys defense that plays man at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Hayden Hurst is also worth a dart throw, as Dallas is ranked 32nd in DVOA versus TEs.
Matt Ryan has played himself into the QB discussion in GPPs, tossing multiple scores in six of his last seven games and throwing for 336 or more yards in three of his last four.
Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheus have combined for 5/50/1 on 11 targets versus man coverage this season and aren’t realistic options. Neither is Mike Davis, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per reception.
- Cash Plays: QB Dak Prescott, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Dalton Schultz
- GPP Plays: QB Matt Ryan, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Ceedee Lamb, WR Aamari Cooper, WR Michael Gallup, TE Kyle Pitts, TE Hayden Hurst
Betting Pick
The Cowboys are in a bounce-back spot after being upset by the Broncos while the Falcons are in a let-down spot after a big win over the Saints. Still, eight points is too many to lay with a Cowboys team missing left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle).
Pick: Pass
Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott
Bills at Jets
DFS Plays
This is a get-right game for the entire Bills offense against a Jets defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and 31st against the run. This is also a spot to fade the entire Jets offense and play the Bills defense that ranks first in DVOA against the pass and third against the run.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary, RB Zach Moss, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley, TE Dawson Knox, DST Bills
Betting Pick
The Bills have looked sluggish on offense the past few weeks, but four of the Jets’ six losses have come by at least two scores.
Pick: Pass
Saints at Titans
DFS Plays
Kamara’s absence makes Mark Ingram II a locked-in cash game play against a Titans defense that has been a run funnel, ranking eighth in pass-defense DVOA but 24th on the ground. Plus, Ingram was already averaging 11.0 touches per game with Kamara active the past two games.
Backup running back Dwayne Washington has been lightly used on offense, touching the ball only 19 times in 33 games since the start of 2019, so Ingram has a 25-30 touch ceiling here.
The only other Saints player worth a look with Trevor Siemian starting is Deonte Harris, who could be used on short passes as an extension of the run game. Harris has drawn at least seven targets in back-to-back weeks.
The Titans defense is the top cash game play on the board at only $2,600 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel. The Titans are 11th in pressure rate (26.2%) and 14th in takeaways per drive (12.1%).
After playing at a shutdown level to start the season, Marshon Lattimore has been scorched for 13 catches, 275 yards and four touchdowns on 20 targets over the past three games. This isn’t a spot to shy away from A.J. Brown in GPPs. With Julio Jones (hamstring) on IR, I would rather play Brown solo than stacked with Ryan Tannehill.
Brown could see a high-volume game because the Titans’ three-way running back committee of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman isn’t likely to do much against a Saints run defense that’s allowing just 2.92 yards per carry to RBs.
As the Saints tend to outperform expectations as underdogs, I would also look to target their defense, which ranks third overall in DVOA.
- Cash Plays: RB Mark Ingram II, DST Titans
- GPP Plays: WR A.J. Brown, WR Deonte Harris, DST Saints
Betting Pick
This is the spot of spots for Sean Payton.
Under Payton, the Saints are 49-26 (63%) against the spread (ATS) off a loss…
…and 32-21-2 (60%) ATS as a road underdog, per our Action Labs data:
The Saints have a top-three defense by DVOA overall, including the No. 1 run defense, which should make a Titans offense that’s missing Derrick Henry (IR-foot) and Julio Jones (IR-hamstring) one-dimensional. However, the loss of Alvin Kamara gives me pause — I’d feel a lot more comfortable taking the Saints at +3.5 or better. I’m also looking at potentially backing the under.
Follow me in the Action Network App to see if I end up getting down on New Orleans or the under.
Pick: Lean Saints +3 lean, Lean under 44.5
Buccaneers at Football Team
DFS Plays
Even without Antonio Brown (ankle) and Rob Gronkowski (ribs), Tom Brady is cash-viable against a Washington defense that is ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA.
With Chris Godwin (questionable-foot) also banged up, Mike Evans should be locked into cash games at WR. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are GPP options, as Washington is allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Tyler Johnson becomes a GPP option at WR if Godwin sits.
Washington is better against the run than the pass, but Leonard Fournette is an option due to the success Tampa’s offense should have moving up and down the field. Tampa Bay’s defense is fourth in run defense but has also climbed up to 10th in pass defense. This is a spot to fade Antonio Gibson and target the passing game in what could be a trailing game script.
With Logan Thomas not ready to come off IR, Ricky Seals-Jones is cash-viable. Bucs DST is also an option.
- Cash Plays: QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, TE Ricky Seals-Jones
- GPP Plays: QB Taylor Heinicke, RB J.D. McKissic, WR Terry McLaurin, WR Chris Godwin, WR Tyler Johnson (if Godwin sits), TE O.J. Howard, TE Cameron Brate, DST Buccaneers
Betting Pick
Tom Brady is 41-15 (73%) ATS off a loss and 10-6-1 (63%) off a bye since 2003, but Washington is coming off a bye as well, and Tampa Bay won by only eight points against this team on the road in last season’s Wild Card round.
Pick: Pass
Lions at Steelers
DFS Plays
Diontae Johnson has at least five catches and 56 yards in six of seven games and is cash viable with Chase Claypool (toe) out and the Lions ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and 30th against WR1s.
The Steelers should be able to shred the Lions’ 25th-ranked run defense on the ground with Najee Harris, so I wouldn’t bother stacking Johnson with Ben Reothlisberger.
Pat Freiermuth is worth a dart throw, as he could retain his role even with Eric Ebron back.
This is a spot to stack Harris with the Steelers DST, as Pittsburgh is fourth in pressure rate (28.1%) while Jared Goff has a 51.6 passer rating under pressure with no TDs and four interceptions.
With Goff unlikely to have time to get the ball downfield to his WRs, the only Lions worth rostering are D’Andre Swift, who should see even higher usage with Jamaal Williams (thigh) out, and T.J. Hockenson.
- Cash Plays: WR Diontae Johnson
- GPP Plays: RB Najee Harris, RB D’Andre Swift, TE T.J. Hockenson, TE Pat Freiermuth, DST Steelers
Betting Pick
This is likely a flat spot for the Steelers on a short week, but the Lions are an every-week flat spot. Even though they’re 4-4 ATS, their -5.7 ATS margin is fourth-worst in the NFL.
Pick: Pass
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Steelers RB Najee Harris.
Vikings at Chargers
DFS Plays
This is a smash spot for Dalvin Cook, who is cash-viable against a Chargers defense that’s ranked dead last in DVOA against the run.
Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa (questionable-ankle) is banged up, and they will be without cornerback Michael Davis (hamstring) and linebacker Drue Tranquill (COVID-19), so this should also be a good day for Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and the rest of the Vikings passing game.
The Chargers are second in DVOA versus non-No. 1 or 2 WRs but 31st against TEs, so I’m targeting Tyler Conklin over K.J. Osborn in this spot.
Justin Hebert and Co. should have success against a Vikings defense that played 98 snaps against the Ravens last week. Despite a questionable tag, Keenan Allen (knee) practiced Thursday and Friday and is cash-viable in a game with an over/under of 53, second-highest on the slate. Allen has at least eight targets, five catches and 50 yards in seven of eight games.
The Vikings are ranked 28th in DVOA to WR2s, so this could finally be a bounce-back spot for Mike Williams. I’m targeting Williams and fading Jared Cook, as the Vikings are sixth versus TEs.
The Vikings do a good job at taking away RBs in the passing game, ranking second in DVOA, but Austin Ekeler still has the requisite GPP upside due to Minnesota’s weakness in stopping the run as it ranks 26th in DVOA against opposing ground attacks.
- Cash Plays: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Keenan Allen
- GPP Plays: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen, WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin
Betting Pick
The Vikings are dealing with a rash of injuries on defense after playing nearly 100 snaps on that side of the ball, and now they are traveling out West with Mike Zimmer on the hot seat.
Against any semblance of common sense, the Vikings tend to play well in these spots: Under Zimmer, they’ve covered in two-thirds of games coming off a loss and three-fourths of the time off a multi-game losing streak.
A few more factors working in the Vikings’ favor.
They have one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook going against a Chargers defense that’s ranked dead last in run defense DVOA and has been shredded for an NFL-high 5.0 yards per carry.
On paper, the Vikings are the better team than the Chargers and have been unlucky. The Vikings, despite a 3-5 record, rank 11th in overall DVOA and have 5.4 estimated (or “true”) wins, according to Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, the Chargers are five spots lower at 16th in overall DVOA, and despite a 5-3 record, should have only 4.4 estimated wins.
In place of safety Harrison Smith (COVID-19), rookie fourth-round pick Cameron Bynum was even better, registering the second-best PFF grade (90.0) of all safeties in Week 9. Bynum played all 98 snaps for Minnesota, recording 11 tackles and allowing only 22 yards on three targets while notching an interception.
Pick: Vikings +3 (to +3)
Panthers at Cardinals
DFS Plays
With P.J. Walker going against a Cardinals defense ranked second in pass defense DVOA and top-four against WR1s and WR2s, the Panthers’ pass offense is unplayable.
It’s Christian McCaffrey or bust with Carolina in GPPs.
This is a prime spot to target the Cardinals DST stacked with James Conner, who should see the hulk of the rushing usage with Eno Benjamin mixed in. Carolina is allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (24.5), so i’m not expecting a repeat of Conner’s 5/77/1 receiving line last week. However, I am expecting a repeat of him scoring on the ground, which he has done at least once in six of Arizona’s past seven games.
With uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the Cardinals’ passing game, I’m fading them this week against a Panthers defense that ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA and boasts four above-average cornerbacks with the addition of former Patriot Stephon Gilmore.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB James Conner, DST Cardinals
Betting Pick
The Panthers have the defensive chops to shut down the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have been a nightmare to bet against, going 7-2 ATS and covering by an NFL-high 10.3 points per game.
Pick: Pass
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Seahawks at Packers
DFS Plays
Russell Wilson returns to a dream matchup for his top targets D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as the Packers are ranked 22nd in DVOA versus WR1s and 23rd vs WR2s. They’re also missing shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, who remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.
With Aaron Rodgers slated to return from his COVID vaccine fiasco, you just know Pete Carroll will want to run the ball and play keepaway. This bodes well for Alex Collins as a contrarian GPP pivot off some of the more popular cheap options, as Green Bay ranks just 22nd in DVOA against the run.
With Rodgers having been immune from practice all week while on the COVID list, I’m fading him and the entire passing game except for Davante Adams; if you didn’t practice all week, who would you force the ball to over and over?
Aaron Jones is still a bit pricey and has been losing work to A.J. Dillon, so I’d rather target the cheaper Dillon here given how the slate stacks up with an array of other cheap RB options.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Russell Wilson, RB Alex Collins, RB A.J. Dillon, WR Davante Adams, WR D.K. Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett
Betting Pick
With Russell Wilson returning after a full week of practice while Aaron Rodgers failed to practice all week, this is a spot to back the Seahawks.
On offense, we know the Seahawks want to run the ball and get it to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett when they drop back to pass. That gives them a beautiful matchup, as the Packers defense is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the run as well as 22nd and 23rd versus No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, respectively.
In 24 games dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have only lost five by more than three points.
And according to our Action Labs data, as road underdogs in games started by Wilson, the Seahawks have covered two-thirds of the time.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5 (to +3)
Eagles at Broncos
DFS Plays
The Eagles play zone at the fourth-highest rate, which should lead to a big game for Jerry Jeudy, who has been much better against zone than man in his career.
- Zone: 78/45/634/3; 57.7% catch rate, 14.1 YPR, 8.1 YPT
- Man: 45/20/252/0, 44.4% catch rate, 12.6 YPR, 5.6 YPT
This is also a good bounce-back spot for Noah Fant, who leads the Broncos in targets (34), catches (26) and yards (234) versus zone despite missing a game.
While the Eagles’ scheme should lead to PPR success for Jeudy and Fant, I’m still fading Teddy Bridgewater here, as he is dealing with a banged-up offensive line and is averaging more than three yards per attempt less versus zone coverage.
Against an Eagles defense that is ranked 20th in run-defense DVOA, I would expect Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to both see enough volume to pay off in GPPs, though they will each likely be TD-dependent due to the state of the O-line.
Jalen Hurts should have success on the ground versus the Broncos’ man-heavy scheme and is an every-week GPP play at QB. With all the hype on Devonta Smith coming off a big game, I’d pivot to Quez Watkins here. Vic Fangio dials up man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and Watkins — not Smith — leads the Eagles in receiving yards (202) versus man coverage.
Dallas Goedert could also struggle here, as he has seen only 25.7% of his targets come against man this season.
The Eagles continue to operate a three-headed backfield with Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. Scott was the flavor of the week last Sunday and predictably busted. Now it’s Howard, who spent the first two months of the season on the practice squad. Fade.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Melvin Gordon, RB Javonte Williams, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Quez Watkins, TE Noah Fant
Betting Pick
The Broncos’ offensive line has been absolutely ravaged by injury. Right guard Graham Glasgow (IR-leg), right tackle Bobby Massie (ankle) and left tackle Garrett Bolles (ankle) have already been ruled out, while left guard Dalton Risner tweaked his foot this week in practice and is questionable.
The Broncos are facing an Eagles defense that plays zone at a top-five rate, and according to data from PFF, the Broncos are averaging 10.5 yards per target versus man coverage but just 6.8 versus zone. Even if the Broncos have success against the Eagles’ simplistic risk-averse defensive scheme, the Broncos are likely to need long scoring drives as the Eagles allow an NFL-low 6.4 average depth of target.
The Eagles, meanwhile, average a 0.5 yard less per pass against man coverage, which the Broncos play at the highest rate in the league. Take away games against the bottom-five defenses of the Falcons, Chiefs and Lions in which the Eagles averaged 35.3 points per game, and they’ve averaged only 20.2 points per game against their other six opponents.
With a banged up O-line and the Eagles traveling across country to a tough Mile high environment to face a defense that shut out the Cowboys for most of last week, Teddy Bridgewater will likely go into game manager mode. The under is 7-2 with Bridgewater at the helm for Denver this season and 35-22-1 (61%) across his 58 career starts.
Pick: Under 45.5 (to 44)
DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
- QB Dak Prescott $6,900 vs. ATL
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson $6,600 at DAL
- RB D’Ernest Johnson $4,700 at NE
- WR Keenan Allen $6,900 vs. MIN
- WR Mike Evans $6,900 at WAS
- WR Diontae Johnson $6,800 vs. DET
- TE Ricky Seals-Jones $3,700 vs. TB
- FLEX Mark Ingram II $4,500 at TEN
- DST Titans $2,600 vs. NO
FanDuel
- QB Tom Brady $8,300 at WAS
- RB Dalvin Cook $8,500 at LAC
- RB Mark Ingram II $5,500 at TEN
- WR Mike Evans $7,400 at WAS
- WR Diontae Johnson $7,400 vs. DET
- WR Keenan Allen $7,200 vs. MIN
- TE Dalton Schultz $6,000 vs. ATL
- FLEX D’Ernest Johnson $5,400 at NE
- DST Titans $2,600 vs. NO
