In what is quickly becoming a trademark, I applied the theme from Bryan Mears’ latest article to the Trend of the Day. I did this because it’s topical and I lack the requisite creativity to generate a pristine trend. In fact, one could assert this iteration is the inverse of Matthew Freedman’s DraftKings Mid-Priced Pro Trend Pitchers article. You got me.

There have been 106 instances of a pitcher costing at least $13,000 on DraftKings. This is the first time in FantasyLabs’ database – dating back to 2014 – that three pitchers at that premium take the mound on the same day.

We will exclude FanDuel pitchers because Clayton Kershaw accounts for all 22 instances of a $13,000 pitcher on that site. He crafted a +9.53 Plus/Minus and 68.2% Consistency in those contests, by the way. Today will be his 23rd time breaching that price mark on FanDuel.

I wanted to test a hypothesis about high-priced pitchers exhibiting Pro Trends on the low end. In essence, we’re examining if fading Kershaw ($13,900) or Stephen Strasburg ($13,500) in favor of Johnny Cueto ($13,100) on DraftKings is a solid investment based on historical Pro Trends data. It makes sense based on a projected low-ownership level, but what if pitchers at Cueto’s price don’t thrive when their trends trend downward?

MLB Trend of the Day: Expensive Starters With Low Pro Trends

Step 1:  Player Filters > Salary > Set to “13,000 to 15,700”

We’re already on shaky ground in terms of sample size. The dataset shrinks to 0.0094 percent of the player pool. However, the +3.39 Plus/Minus indicates high-priced starters are generally worth the tax.

Step 2:  Trends > Pro Trends > Set to “6 to 9”

Typically, starters have consistently exceeded value when assigned at least four Pro Trends. Pitchers priced at the $13,000 plateau on DraftKings have previously claimed no fewer than six Pro Trends.

By setting the Pro Trends to a maximum of nine, the count dropped to 45 and the Plus/Minus dipped into negative territory.

Current Matches

Talk about your all-time backfires.

I set out on a mission to determine if Cueto stood a chance against the elite options tonight, and he’s not even a current match on this two-step trend. Additionally, karma bit me in the *ss with both Kershaw and Strasburg meeting the trend requirements.

By squaring off against Kershaw today, you could say Kershaw effectively pilfered at least two of Cueto’s Pro Trends – Team is Favorite and Team is (-150) or Better to Win. Cueto is not included because he’s currently boasting five Pro Trends, the fewest of any pitcher at his salary on DraftKings. Since he’s the first of his kind, we can’t move the Pro Trends filter any lower than six until tomorrow.

If we added a third step to account for Cueto’s weak predicted strikeouts (image below), the trend derails because similarly-priced pitchers were unable to meet salary-based expectations on a consistent basis. 

In tailoring this trend to Cueto, I removed pitchers who were predicted to strike out at least eight batters. Cueto himself is currently projected for 5.4 strikeouts, further diminishing his appeal as a contrarian tournament option at his price-point.

If you care for a harsh dose of reality, swap out the recently-implemented K Prediction filter with Vegas Favorite as your third step. High-priced pitchers with fewer than 10 Pro Trends favored by Vegas yield a -2.49 Plus/Minus on 40 percent Consistency. Again, both Kershaw and Strasburg meet those requirements today, and the image below provides the list of pitchers who have previously qualified.