At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
There are seven games during the Main slate, drastically reducing the player pool. Tack on a lackluster pitching crop resembling Buzz’s girlfriend and all signs point toward judicious entries.
On DraftKings, seven batters and 10 pitchers cost at least $5,000. Let’s locate the expensive hitters on whom to splurge. [Editor’s Note: It’s possible that the words ‘whom’ and ‘splurge’ have never been in that close of proximity.]
Trend of the Day: Non-Bargain Night-Game Hitters
Step 1: Trends > Bargain Rating > 0 to 35
Hitters don’t typically return value on DraftKings inside the 35th percentile of Bargain Rating.
Why am I focusing on this subgroup of inherently suboptimal batters? Because they might tend to be ignored by a lot of our users. In part, the goal of this trend is to show that a player shouldn’t automatically be eliminated from consideration if he has a Bargain Rating below 50.
Step 2: Player Filters > Salary > $5000 to $6000
If you roster the two most expensive pitchers in the Main slate on DraftKings, you’ll have $3,925 remaining per hitter. If you opt for the two highest-rated pitchers in the Bales and CSURAM88 models, you’ve opened up $4,350 per hitter. Assuming you don’t drift contrarian by hoarding cap space, expensive hitters will permeate your lineup.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Runs > 5 to 6.1
When in doubt, target hitters on teams implied to score at least five runs. Only four teams currently fit within that range in the main slate. The Red Sox even rest at 6.1 implied runs at the moment.
As you can see, even expensive batters with poor Bargain Ratings provide value when they have the Vegas data on their side.
Step 4: Time Filters > Time of Day > 19 to 22
This filter merely eliminates matches playing earlier in the day.
Current Matches
David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Starling Marte, and Randal Grichuk qualify for the trend.
Ortiz and Betts are two of the top qualifiers for this trend all-time on DraftKings.
Betts has exceeded salary-based expectations only five out of 18 chances, but he has also submitted Duds only three times. Ortiz has averaged a +2.21 Plus/Minus this season alone in 14 opportunities. You can find both Betts and Ortiz in the highest-rated stacks for the main slate. They will square off against Matt Cain, who hasn’t pitched since June 13th, with the wind currently projected to blow out to right field at six miles per hour.
Grichuk and his posse are a stack overshadowed by the Boston clan. You’ll find the Cardinals are currently implied to score 5.4 runs, the second-highest mark on the main slate. Since the Cardinals are playing a doubleheader today, confirm the lineup of the night game before fading the Red Sox for a Cardinals stack.
Marte represents the best base-stealing threat of the four matches. He’s second to Jonathan Villar on the main slate with a 0.29 stolen base per game rate, and he has recorded 11 stolen bases this month. In three starts against the Brewers this year, he has swiped two bags against projected catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who has yielded 44 stolen bases this season — the second most among all catchers.
