In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Derek Dietrich, MIA, 2B/3B
Since taking over the leadoff spot for Dee Gordon, Dietrich has been an immense DFS value. In his last two starts, he scored 28.2 and 25.2 FanDuel points and was priced at only $2,100. He has definitely experienced a Salary Change, priced at $2,900 tonight, but with this increase in salary comes an interesting strategy angle: When a guy is a clear value and hitting the ball well, at what point in the price-escalation process is he no longer a value? In tournaments you also have to factor in ownership: Will his ownership decrease tonight in correlation with his price increase?
But let’s start with a more basic question: Do you actually want to roster the guy? He’s facing Rubby De La Rosa, has great splits against righties — .245 Isolated Power (ISO) and .527 slugging — and has excellent advanced stats (40 percent recent hard-hit rate). So he’s a good play.
Now, let’s run a trend querying players with great stats but price increases. As you can see (per the trend), players with great ISOs but big salary changes haven’t done well:
So what should we do with Dietrich? Well, isn’t that the fun of DFS?
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommendations in today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast and see what he has to say about the next player in his Trend of the Day.
Bill Monighetti: Drew Smyly, TB, SP
With a career Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) that is 70 points higher against righties, Smyly is a pretty splitty guy. That’s not a bad thing. In fact, today, it should work in his favor. As a team, the Dodgers own a wOBA of .310 when facing lefties on the season, as many of their best hitters bat left-handed. Since the start of the 2015 season (25 innings), Smyly has mowed down lefty bats at an absurd 40 percent clip.
Having allowed three earned runs against a combined 25 strikeouts during his recent @BOS-@NYY-TOR AL East gauntlet, Smyly will look to keep things rolling tonight. A -160 moneyline favorite to win, Smyly also stands to benefit from a Park Factor of 89 by playing at Tropicana Field. Due to his 98 percent Bargain Rating, Smyly is best deployed on FanDuel, where he has a chance to be one of the top overall values on the site.
Mitchell Block: Jose Abreu, CWS, 1B
To say that Clay Buchholz has struggled this season would be to make a gross understatement. The right-handed Buchholz has allowed exactly five earned runs in four of his five starts this year, and his 1.59 WHIP is poor. With his reverse wOBA and ISO splits of .366 and .215 respectively, Abreu is in a prime spot to exploit the floundering veteran pitcher.
Particularly noteworthy to me is that Abreu (with an ISO Differential of .106) has hit 56 of his 69 career home runs against right-handed pitching. As it happens, Buchholz has allowed 1.30 home runs per nine innings this season and the game will be in Chicago, where Abreu has a Park Factor of 65. In what is a smaller main slate, Abreu makes for a very intriguing play.
For more information on batters to roster, check out Mitch’s State of the Stacks article, coming soon.
Brandon Hopper: Logan Forsythe, TB, 2B
I’m hoping that Forsythe and other Tampa Bay Rays will have relatively low lineup percentages tonight. With an implied Vegas total of “only” 4.3 runs — well below the implied totals for the Blue Jays and Orioles — the Rays might be overlooked by a lot of DFS players.
What makes Forsythe intriguing are his splits against lefties: He has a wOBA of .430, ISO of .318 and slugging percentage of .643 against southpaws.
Using our Trends tool, I found that leadoff hitters who have strong ISO splits and Park Factors under 15 tends to do well, with a +2.56 Plus/Minus. The sample size for the trend is small, because it matches only for leadoff hitters, but it’s Consistency is solid.
Finally, Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood has a strike rate that’s down a touch, and his opponents are hitting the ball harder and farther. Wood’s recent velocity has improved by 1.1 MPH, but he’s still throwing only 89-91 MPH. Historically, that mixture of velocity differential and a relatively low speed results in a -0.29 Plus/Minus. Just because Wood is throwing harder, doesn’t automatically turn him into a positive pitcher. Forsythe should be able to exploit him.
Check out the rest of Brandon’s recommendations in today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Matthew Freedman: Evan Longoria, TB, 3B
My longtime second-favorite Longoria of the Eva(n) variety, the Rays third baseman is officially my play for today’s main slate, especially on FanDuel, where he has a measly $3,100 salary and an elite 95 percent Bargain Rating. With eight Pro Trends, he trails only Josh Donaldson at the position — but Donaldson, as the most expensive third baseman on the slate, is $1,500 more expensive to roster.
Longoria’s 0.380 wOBA and .250 ISO rival Donaldson’s, and, unlike his counterpart, Longoria actually has positive wOBA and ISO Differentials. Finally, Longoria’s .565 slugging percentage actually leads all main-slate third basemen. With 47 percent Consistency, 26 percent Upside, and a Salary Change of only +$100 over the last month, Longoria is a great arbitrage play on Donaldson.
To see the DFS impact designated hitters have on their teammates, check out Matt’s Labyrinthian, coming soon.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
