In today’s slate, every player has their pros and cons. That includes Max Scherzer, who’s far and away the most highly-touted pitcher of this slate. Much like others being considered tonight, he has his concerns, but that doesn’t mean he should be faded.
Let’s discuss. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Max Scherzer, WSH
Whether it’s his 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9), the Brewers’ (Scherzer’s opponent tonight) slate-high average of .292 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), or that he’s received the highest percentage of moneyline bets, Scherzer is the highest-priced pitcher for a number of reasons. Additionally, his line-drive rate allowed in the past 15 days is tied for the lowest at his position.
However, his recent advanced stats shine light to a few notable issues — for example, his 222-foot batted-ball distance allowed, a hard-hit rate 12 percentage points higher than his yearly average, etc. — but no other pitcher in this slate offers the sort of ceiling that Scherzer does. Even Danny Salazar, for instance, who’s averaged only three fewer DraftKings points than Scherzer over the last month, has recorded double-digit strikeouts just once in his last seven appearances. Scherzer’s recorded four in that span.
Steven Matz, NYM
If you deem moneyline bets received to be a relevant factor, note that Matz has taken in a percentage only one point less than Scherzer so far. The Braves’ .285 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is bottom-six among offenses today. But those picture-perfect stats don’t totally cover Matz’s recent struggles. See his average -6.97 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last three starts, or that he’s allowed a batted-ball distance 20 feet farther than his yearly average in his last two. But those contemplating paying for him can still take solace in that he’s predicted with 7.2 strikeouts, the second-most among pitchers this evening.
Jake Peavy, SF
The main concern for Peavy is that his 6.79 SO/9 rate isn’t nearly as high as the pricier options tonight. What he lacks in strikeout prowess he makes up for with his 100 Park Factor and matchup against the Phillies, whose .277 wOBA is bottom-two. Peavy has also exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five performances, averaging 19.1 DraftKings points in that span. He’s also recently allowed a batted-ball distance 11 feet shorter than his yearly average.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR
Minus his recent performance against Baltimore in which he allowed four home runs, Sanchez hasn’t had many blips in Consistency. And even in allowing six runs that evening, his seven strikeouts prevented the performance from being recorded as a Dud. In turn, his Dud rate this season remains the lowest among pitchers in this slate. However, he’s seen a $4,200 Salary Change at DraftKings in the last month, which has historically led to a -2.52 Plus/Minus. Fortunately, he still has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU
Keuchel’s received only 27 percent of moneyline bets against the Royals, whose .235 SO/AB rate isn’t even ranked among the bottom-15 offenses tonight. That’s a problem. His recent advanced stats, however, suggest he should be a favorite. Just note his 183-foot batted-ball distance and 88-MPH exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days. He’s also induced a 76 percent groundball rate in that span, a throwback to the 61.7 percent he forced during his Cy Young campaign. Keuchel has also exceeded salary-based expectations at DraftKings in five consecutive starts.
Hitters
Miguel Cabrera, DET
You might’ve noticed Cabrera’s 237-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, top-six among first basemen. What you hadn’t noticed (maybe) is that his salary plummeted $1,600 overnight. He has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, but don’t let the sudden Salary Change fool you: He’s still slugging .563 versus right-handed pitching.
Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Both Rodriguez’s .087 and .089 wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials are top-10 at his position. That’s the good news. Now for the bad: His 84-MPH exit velocity in the past 15 days is tied for the lowest at his position. Fortunately, that hasn’t mattered historically when a player is slugging over .500 against a particular handedness.
Joe Panik, SF
Panik stands out in more ways than one. He has a 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel; his .466 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching is top-10 at his position; his .093 and .098 wOBA and ISO Differentials are both top-four; and he’s averaging only .100 strikeouts per at-bat, top-two among second basemen.
Jung-ho Kang, PIT
Pittsburgh’s implied Vegas total has already increased 0.3 runs. Though that puts their entire offense into consideration, Kang personally warrants ownership since his .564 slugging percentage trails only Nolan Arenado’s for the highest among third basemen.
Conor Gillaspie, SF
Gillaspie costs only $2,300 at DraftKings, a breath of fresh air in comparison to the salaries of others at his position. More important is how he’s averaged a 94-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, equivalent to that of Adrian Beltre’s, Josh Donaldson’s, and even Jake Lamb’s.
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM
Although Cabrera’s salary has risen recently, a $3,800 price tag on DraftKings still doesn’t seem like proper value. After all, he has the most Pro Trends among shortstops, as well as the second-highest exit velocity produced in the last 15 days.
Joey Rickard, BAL
Rickard is slugging .538 against left-handed pitching. His .145 ISO Differential is also top-10 among outfielders.
Corey Dickerson, TB
Dickerson’s .240 ISO Differential is top-four at his position. He also has a .291 ISO against right-handed pitching, which, much like Rickard’s, is also top-10 among outfielders tonight.
Michael Saunders, TOR
Saunders is much more expensive than most suggestions listed so far. Even so, his recent advanced stats warrant being paid for. Just note his .675 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, as well as his 258-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. His .357 ISO is also the second-highest of his position.
Good luck!
