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MLB DFS 5/3/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this. (Also, check out our Vegas page.)

Pitchers

Matt Harvey, NYM

The Braves strikeout in “only” 20.4 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, but they’ve accumulated a .065 Isolated Power (ISO) versus said handedness, the lowest team total this season. Harvey has also been a bit unlucky to date, as shown by his BABIP allowed of .352. (Even the most elite hitters in the league tend to settle around .350.) Projected to allow only 0.1 runs more than Jake Arrieta tonight, I actually prefer Harvey to the latter in cash games.

Jake Arrieta, CHC

Just because I prefer Harvey doesn’t make Arrieta a bad play. He arguably never is (unless you’re in a 2012-only league). And in this putrid slate, in which pitching value is seemingly hard to find, Arrieta’s -190 moneyline is very good. His batted-ball distance allowed is also the lowest among starters over the last 15 days. He’s actually a good option for tournaments, as many DFS players will likely look for values before spending $12,100.

Jose Quintana, CWS

Quintana has the second-worst fly-ball percentage among pitchers tonight, but Boston has racked up a 25.4 percent strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitching and own a bottom-six ISO against said handedness. Given his noted strikeout Upside — he’s averaging 8.21 SO/9 this season — Quintana is an immaculate tournament option for people in need of salary relief. For cash games, however, he’s not as good of an option, given his batted-ball and hard-hit differentials of +26 feet and +9 percentage points in his last two starts.

Also, he has yet to let us down from a Plus/Minus standpoint:

Pitchers to Exploit

Alex Meyer, MIN

Even in the minors, Meyer’s talent has always been his uncanny knack to strike batters out. Including his time in the majors, he has recorded a career 9.82 SO/9. But his two stints with the Twins have resulted in a merciless combination of 5.62 HR/9 and whopping 7.03 xFIP (which is a better prognosticator than raw earned run average). The Astros might strikeout against lefties at a horrendous rate (24.9 percent), but they still have a top-eight ISO and wOBA.

Nick Tropeano, LAA

No pitcher in this slate has been hit harder (95 miles per hour exit velocity) and farther (batted-ball distance of 259 feet allowed) than Tropeano. The Brewers don’t exactly exemplify offense, and so it’s likely that few DFS players will stack them despite their terrific spot. And that means that we should have exposure to them in tournaments.

Jon Moscot, CIN

Although Moscot might miss his start tonight, it appears that the Reds are leaning toward having him on the mound. If that’s the case, we should note his 2.05 HR/9 over the last year. It’s bad news for Moscot that he generally doesn’t strike anyone out (4.09 S0/9). It’s even worse news (for him) that the Giants, with a league-low 15.2 percent strikeout rate vs. RHP, don’t strike out against pitchers who are much better than him.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI

Justin Nicolino has historically produced the lowest SO/9 (2.84) in this slate. Not that it matters: Castillo is slugging .560 vs. LHP. With a position-best .294 ISO, he’s arguably the strongest catcher tonight.

Salvador Perez, KC

Tanner Roark had six Ks in his last outing, but that’s a far cry from the 15 he racked up in the outing before that. Going against the Royals, Roark will have the near-impossible task of maneuvering his 1.23 HR/9 and batted-ball distance of 265 feet around each other. Perez will have a chance to capitalize.

Tucker Barnhart, CIN

With Devin Mesoraco (torn labrum) out for the foreseeable future, Barnhart is expected to continue starting. That means more at-bats for a guy who currently has an exit velocity of 96 MPH and a salary of $2,300 on DraftKings.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Davis’ .625 slugging percentage remains the highest among first basemen. Despite his batted-ball distance differential of -12 feet over the last 15 days, he’s still easily the strongest option at his position, given that Yankees-Orioles has the highest Park Rating of the night.

Brandon Belt, SF

It’s an unfortunate spot for Belt only because of his three-for-four performance just yesterday. His ownership will likely be higher because of it. Even so, his batted-ball distance as of late remains the highest among first basemen with double-digit starts. Belt is arguably the one option you can’t fade if stacking the Giants (as suggested earlier).

Albert Pujols, LAA

Junior Guerra’s WHIP (2.00) and HR/9 (2.25) aren’t anything to write home about. That leaves Pujols as maybe the most valuable player at FanDuel, where he still, for whatever reason, has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.

2B

Brandon Drury, ARI

Drury qualifies at third base on FanDuel but is more of a value at DraftKings. Either way, he’s an accessible option across sites and should be considered heavily given his .538 slugging vs. LHP. It especially bodes well if he continues batting second (as he has done previously when Arizona has opposed lefties).

Darwin Barney, TOR (at DK)

Projected to score the most runs tonight, Toronto will likely be a favorite stack in cash games. But Barney is still a unique (and cheap) way to approach a Toronto stack, as he’s expected to bat ninth for the Blue Jays. With the highest slugging percentage (.667) among second basemen, Barney is all too good to pass up, especially given his 10 Pro Trends and minuscule $2,300 salary at DraftKings.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

A not-so-unique way to gain exposure towards Toronto would be to roster Donaldson, who becomes a different sort of beast anytime a lefty is on the mound. He’ll undoubtedly be the highest-owned option in cash games.

Evan Longoria, TB

Longoria has a top-three batted-ball distance over the last two weeks among players with at least 10 starts. Scott Kazmir may have allowed an exit velocity of only 88 MPH in that span, but Longoria’s 42 percent hard-hit percentage makes him an under-the-radar play in tournaments. His outstanding .100 ISO differential vs. LHP also doesn’t hurt.

Matt Duffy, SF

Duffy’s not an option every night, but as the current No. 2 batter for the Giants he’s in a terrific spot at FanDuel, where he costs only $2,900. He and Belt are the two you’re looking to stack if going that route.

SS

Ivan De Jesus, CIN

With Zack Cozart sidelined, Cincinnati will apparently bat De Jesus (rather than Eugenio Suarez) second in the lineup. And if that is the case, De Jesus’ position-best 53 percent hard-hit percentage will come in handy tonight. He also costs only $2,200 at FanDuel.

OF

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Stanton’s slugging percentage vs. LHP now sits at a dazzling .911. His ISO is also .107 greater than that of any other outfielder in the slate. In other words, lock him up and don’t look back.

Michael Saunders, TOR

Saunders has produced some rather spectacular performances as of late, but tonight arguably makes for his best spot. Set to oppose Martin Perez (and leadoff for Toronto), Saunders has an ISO differential of .352, which is somehow .027 higher than Stanton’s. Saunders warrants ownership whether you’re stacking the Blue Jays or not.

Alex Presley, MIL

I don’t know if Domingo Santana’s shoulder will hold him out again tonight, but I do know that Presley has a minimum salary at DraftKings. If he bats toward the top of the order, he’s the easiest (and most accessible) cash play of the night. Over the last 15 days, Presley has a top-four batted-ball distance among outfielders.

Adam Duvall, CIN

Jeff Samardzija is a heavy Vegas favorite, but that’s due more to the pitcher he’s facing (Moscot) than his own merit. Samardzija has a mediocre (at best) 1.2 HR/9 allowed. Duvall’s exit velocity of 96 MPH is second only to Ryan Raburn’s (97) over the last two weeks. Most importantly, Duvall should have little to no exposure.

Kike Hernandez, LAD

Hernandez costs only $100 above minimum at FanDuel, which seems all too cheap, given his top-three wOBA, ISO, and slugging vs. LHP. He’s a good option in cash games and tournaments alike.

Weather Watch

Diamondbacks-Marlins appears to be the only game with suboptimal weather tonight, but Miami can obviously opt to close the roof. Roster everyone else with confidence.

Good luck!

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

No related posts.

Let’s do this. (Also, check out our Vegas page.)

Pitchers

Matt Harvey, NYM

The Braves strikeout in “only” 20.4 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, but they’ve accumulated a .065 Isolated Power (ISO) versus said handedness, the lowest team total this season. Harvey has also been a bit unlucky to date, as shown by his BABIP allowed of .352. (Even the most elite hitters in the league tend to settle around .350.) Projected to allow only 0.1 runs more than Jake Arrieta tonight, I actually prefer Harvey to the latter in cash games.

Jake Arrieta, CHC

Just because I prefer Harvey doesn’t make Arrieta a bad play. He arguably never is (unless you’re in a 2012-only league). And in this putrid slate, in which pitching value is seemingly hard to find, Arrieta’s -190 moneyline is very good. His batted-ball distance allowed is also the lowest among starters over the last 15 days. He’s actually a good option for tournaments, as many DFS players will likely look for values before spending $12,100.

Jose Quintana, CWS

Quintana has the second-worst fly-ball percentage among pitchers tonight, but Boston has racked up a 25.4 percent strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitching and own a bottom-six ISO against said handedness. Given his noted strikeout Upside — he’s averaging 8.21 SO/9 this season — Quintana is an immaculate tournament option for people in need of salary relief. For cash games, however, he’s not as good of an option, given his batted-ball and hard-hit differentials of +26 feet and +9 percentage points in his last two starts.

Also, he has yet to let us down from a Plus/Minus standpoint:

Pitchers to Exploit

Alex Meyer, MIN

Even in the minors, Meyer’s talent has always been his uncanny knack to strike batters out. Including his time in the majors, he has recorded a career 9.82 SO/9. But his two stints with the Twins have resulted in a merciless combination of 5.62 HR/9 and whopping 7.03 xFIP (which is a better prognosticator than raw earned run average). The Astros might strikeout against lefties at a horrendous rate (24.9 percent), but they still have a top-eight ISO and wOBA.

Nick Tropeano, LAA

No pitcher in this slate has been hit harder (95 miles per hour exit velocity) and farther (batted-ball distance of 259 feet allowed) than Tropeano. The Brewers don’t exactly exemplify offense, and so it’s likely that few DFS players will stack them despite their terrific spot. And that means that we should have exposure to them in tournaments.

Jon Moscot, CIN

Although Moscot might miss his start tonight, it appears that the Reds are leaning toward having him on the mound. If that’s the case, we should note his 2.05 HR/9 over the last year. It’s bad news for Moscot that he generally doesn’t strike anyone out (4.09 S0/9). It’s even worse news (for him) that the Giants, with a league-low 15.2 percent strikeout rate vs. RHP, don’t strike out against pitchers who are much better than him.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI

Justin Nicolino has historically produced the lowest SO/9 (2.84) in this slate. Not that it matters: Castillo is slugging .560 vs. LHP. With a position-best .294 ISO, he’s arguably the strongest catcher tonight.

Salvador Perez, KC

Tanner Roark had six Ks in his last outing, but that’s a far cry from the 15 he racked up in the outing before that. Going against the Royals, Roark will have the near-impossible task of maneuvering his 1.23 HR/9 and batted-ball distance of 265 feet around each other. Perez will have a chance to capitalize.

Tucker Barnhart, CIN

With Devin Mesoraco (torn labrum) out for the foreseeable future, Barnhart is expected to continue starting. That means more at-bats for a guy who currently has an exit velocity of 96 MPH and a salary of $2,300 on DraftKings.

1B

Chris Davis, BAL

Davis’ .625 slugging percentage remains the highest among first basemen. Despite his batted-ball distance differential of -12 feet over the last 15 days, he’s still easily the strongest option at his position, given that Yankees-Orioles has the highest Park Rating of the night.

Brandon Belt, SF

It’s an unfortunate spot for Belt only because of his three-for-four performance just yesterday. His ownership will likely be higher because of it. Even so, his batted-ball distance as of late remains the highest among first basemen with double-digit starts. Belt is arguably the one option you can’t fade if stacking the Giants (as suggested earlier).

Albert Pujols, LAA

Junior Guerra’s WHIP (2.00) and HR/9 (2.25) aren’t anything to write home about. That leaves Pujols as maybe the most valuable player at FanDuel, where he still, for whatever reason, has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.

2B

Brandon Drury, ARI

Drury qualifies at third base on FanDuel but is more of a value at DraftKings. Either way, he’s an accessible option across sites and should be considered heavily given his .538 slugging vs. LHP. It especially bodes well if he continues batting second (as he has done previously when Arizona has opposed lefties).

Darwin Barney, TOR (at DK)

Projected to score the most runs tonight, Toronto will likely be a favorite stack in cash games. But Barney is still a unique (and cheap) way to approach a Toronto stack, as he’s expected to bat ninth for the Blue Jays. With the highest slugging percentage (.667) among second basemen, Barney is all too good to pass up, especially given his 10 Pro Trends and minuscule $2,300 salary at DraftKings.

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

A not-so-unique way to gain exposure towards Toronto would be to roster Donaldson, who becomes a different sort of beast anytime a lefty is on the mound. He’ll undoubtedly be the highest-owned option in cash games.

Evan Longoria, TB

Longoria has a top-three batted-ball distance over the last two weeks among players with at least 10 starts. Scott Kazmir may have allowed an exit velocity of only 88 MPH in that span, but Longoria’s 42 percent hard-hit percentage makes him an under-the-radar play in tournaments. His outstanding .100 ISO differential vs. LHP also doesn’t hurt.

Matt Duffy, SF

Duffy’s not an option every night, but as the current No. 2 batter for the Giants he’s in a terrific spot at FanDuel, where he costs only $2,900. He and Belt are the two you’re looking to stack if going that route.

SS

Ivan De Jesus, CIN

With Zack Cozart sidelined, Cincinnati will apparently bat De Jesus (rather than Eugenio Suarez) second in the lineup. And if that is the case, De Jesus’ position-best 53 percent hard-hit percentage will come in handy tonight. He also costs only $2,200 at FanDuel.

OF

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Stanton’s slugging percentage vs. LHP now sits at a dazzling .911. His ISO is also .107 greater than that of any other outfielder in the slate. In other words, lock him up and don’t look back.

Michael Saunders, TOR

Saunders has produced some rather spectacular performances as of late, but tonight arguably makes for his best spot. Set to oppose Martin Perez (and leadoff for Toronto), Saunders has an ISO differential of .352, which is somehow .027 higher than Stanton’s. Saunders warrants ownership whether you’re stacking the Blue Jays or not.

Alex Presley, MIL

I don’t know if Domingo Santana’s shoulder will hold him out again tonight, but I do know that Presley has a minimum salary at DraftKings. If he bats toward the top of the order, he’s the easiest (and most accessible) cash play of the night. Over the last 15 days, Presley has a top-four batted-ball distance among outfielders.

Adam Duvall, CIN

Jeff Samardzija is a heavy Vegas favorite, but that’s due more to the pitcher he’s facing (Moscot) than his own merit. Samardzija has a mediocre (at best) 1.2 HR/9 allowed. Duvall’s exit velocity of 96 MPH is second only to Ryan Raburn’s (97) over the last two weeks. Most importantly, Duvall should have little to no exposure.

Kike Hernandez, LAD

Hernandez costs only $100 above minimum at FanDuel, which seems all too cheap, given his top-three wOBA, ISO, and slugging vs. LHP. He’s a good option in cash games and tournaments alike.

Weather Watch

Diamondbacks-Marlins appears to be the only game with suboptimal weather tonight, but Miami can obviously opt to close the roof. Roster everyone else with confidence.

Good luck!

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No related posts.