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MLB DFS 5/25/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

The Cardinals’ projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is second-highest in the early slate, but Arrieta is still projected to allow 0.3 runs fewer than any other pitcher. His eight Pro Trends are also the second-highest today. St. Louis has additionally produced a .213 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching — far and away the highest in the majors — but Arrieta is the only pitcher who has taken in over 80 percent of moneyline bets (88 percent) this afternoon. His +8.2 Plus/Minus this season is also 3.7 points greater than Steven Matz’s (the closest player at his position).

Corey Kluber, CLE

Per our advanced stats, Kluber’s 15-day batted-ball distance allowed is 35 feet shorter than his 12-month average. The White Sox are projected to score 0.3 more runs than the Indians, but Chicago’s .280 strikeouts per at-bat are still .018 more than Cleveland’s. Coincidentally, Kluber’s strikeouts per nine innings are 0.29 more than the next highest total at the position. His 40-percent Consistency in the last month isn’t great, but his 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel at least allows for an accessible floor.

Scott Kazmir, LAD

Kazmir walked seven batters in his last performance, but it was only the third time all year that he has walked more than one hitter. Also, the Reds have produced a bottom-six walk percentage against left-handed pitching. Fortunately for Kazmir, their projected .256 SO/AB is also bottom-four. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, Kazmir’s exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, as well as his 11-percent hard-hit rate, are both the lowest allowed among pitchers in the last 15 days.

Pitchers to Exploit

Hector Santiago, LAA

Santiago has allowed the lowest line-drive percentage in the last 15 days, but that’s primarily due to his 51-point performance on DraftKings against Seattle. After all, he was chased after only 2.2 innings against Baltimore in his last start. His 60-percent Dud percentage in the last month is also tied with Carlos Martinez’s mark for the highest among pitchers. Needless to say, Santiago’s bottom-three Park Factor (49) and home runs per nine innings (1.71) are at a crossroads this afternoon.

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Philadelphia’s projected wOBA is only seventh among 14 offenses in the main slate, but Sanchez’s 1.78 HR/9 remains the highest. His 215-foot batted-ball distance allowed of late is also bottom-two. Although Detroit is favored to win this afternoon, note that Sanchez has received only 37 percent of moneyline bets to date.

Justin Nicolino, MIA

The Rays strikeout in 25.5 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. On the other hand (no pun intended), they’re one of only three teams to have recorded an ISO greater than .200 versus left-handed pitching. Opponents have also recorded the highest hard-hit percentage against Nicolino in his last two starts. Of all pitchers in the main slate, he has the highest exit velocity allowed.

C

Tommy Joseph, PHI

If rostering Joseph at catcher, you should note that his batted-ball distance in the last week is two feet greater than Christian Betancourt’s (and the highest among catchers). If you’re rostering him at first base, note that his batted-ball distance is nine feet greater than Miguel Cabrera’s (and, you guessed it, the highest among first basemen in the early slate). That’s not good news for Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed 2.19 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

Salvador Perez, KC

Perez is 7-of-9 in this series, but more notably he has produced a 228-foot batted-ball distance in the last 11 days. Note his .339 wOBA against Dillon Gee, whose 1.68 WHIP is 0.28 higher than that of any other pitcher today.

Jason Castro, HOU

Even though he has been batting sixth recently, Castro has a 237-foot batted-ball distance, the highest among starting catchers. Only he and Chris Herrmann have produced a hard-hit rate over 50 percent in the last 15 days. Castro, however, is in a much better spot, given Tyler Wilson’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Castro’s .180 ISO Differential is also the highest among catchers tonight.

1B

Miguel Cabrera, DET

Aaron Nola’s recent batted-ball distance allowed is 14 feet shorter than Kluber’s. Even so, Cabrera’s 96-MPH exit velocity in the last 12 days is two MPH harder than any other first baseman’s. His 252-foot batted-ball distance in that span trails only Tommy Joseph’s (261). And he’s currently producing a Plus/Minus that even vintage-Miggy would be proud of:

Chris Carter, MIL

Carter is tied with Steve Pearce for the most Pro Trends at first base and has a recent batted-ball distance that is 13 feet greater than Pearce’s mark. Carter has also produced a whopping 98-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, which leads Chris Davis’ by two MPH. Carter’s 34-percent Consistency in the last month is certainly an issue, but Michael Foltynewicz’s 2.28 HR/9 are even more of a concern for Atlanta.

2B

Joe Panik, SF

Like everyone else in this game, Panik will have 13-MPH winds blowing out to centerfield. Unlike everyone else, he has a .487 slugging percentage that is top-three at his position. James Shields has also allowed 1.51 HR/9 in the past year.

Steve Pearce, TB

As noted earlier, Chris Carter’s batted-ball distance is the highest among starting first basemen. With Pearce eligible at second base on DK, you fortunately don’t need to choose between Carter and Pearce. After all, Pearce’s 258-foot batted-ball distance is the highest at second base. Coincidently, DK is where he has a 75-percent Bargain Rating.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Beltre has a 93-percent Bargain Rating at FD, but that shouldn’t deter you from rostering him at DraftKings, too. Just note his .075 wOBA Differential against left-handed pitching. His raw wOBA of .395 is also the highest among third basemen today.

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Kang was brought up in yesterday’s MLB Slate Breakdown, and not much has changed since then. His peripherals at third base still stand out. His batted-ball distance, for instance, is 20 feet greater than David Wright’s over their last nine starts. Kang’s exit velocity is three MPH higher than Howie Kendrick’s. All the while, his hard-hit percentage in that span remains the highest at the position. It’s almost a travesty that Rubby De La Rosa has allowed 1.54 HR/9 in the last year.

SS

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Jose Quintana has allowed a .340 slugging percentage to right-handed batters this season. That doesn’t seem high, but it’s all relative in comparison to the .238 he has allowed to lefties. Aledmys Diaz’s .643 slugging is higher than Lindor’s in the early slate, but Lindor also doesn’t face Jake Arrieta today.

Manny Machado, BAL

There are those at his position with a higher recent batted-ball distance, but Machado is second only to Trevor Story among starters, with a .555 slugging percentage. Machado should benefit from the double-digit winds blowing out to left field in Minute Maid Park (assuming that the roof stays open). Oh, and Machado’s wOBA is still notably .019 greater than that of the next-highest starter at his position.

OF

Ian Desmond, TEX

Desmond’s 90-percent Bargain Rating at FD is typically fine on its own, but Hector Santiago has notably allowed 2.21 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. Additionally, Desmond’s .543 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching is top-10 at his position. His .113 wOBA Differential trails only Michael Conforto’s (.227), Jayson Werth’s (.150), and Ryan Rua’s (.130).

Michael Conforto, NYM

Tanner Roark has limited opponents to an 86-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, but they’ve also hit the ball nine percentage points harder in that span. Conforto’s hard-hit percentage in that period is top-10 among outfielders in the afternoon slate. His .227/.289 wOBA and ISO Differentials are also .070/.075 greater than anyone else’s at his position.

Jackie Bradley, BOS

The Red Sox are projected to score 0.9 more runs than any other team is tonight. That’s certainly not a good sign for Chad Bettis, who has allowed a 40-percent hard-hit rate in his last two starts. It does, however, bode well for Jackie Bradley who has recorded a 41-percent hard-hit rate in that span. Bradley’s 12.2 DraftKings points per game this month are also the highest among outfielders.

Charlie Blackmon, COL

How the Rockies fare against a knuckle-ball pitcher remains an intriguing question, but Blackmon should be safe no matter what. Note that he has hit the ball 17 feet farther in his last 15 days. His 65-percent Consistency in the last month is also the highest of anyone in Colorado’s lineup.

Weather Watch

There are a few windows to get Royals-Twins in this afternoon, but rain and thunderstorms will be off and on throughout. Expect at least one delay (although the high humidity in the area makes their hitters intriguing). Cubs-Cardinals is also expecting thunderstorms, but none beyond first pitch. Even Jake Arrieta is safe, as no delay would likely occur once the game is actually started.

Good luck!

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Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC

The Cardinals’ projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is second-highest in the early slate, but Arrieta is still projected to allow 0.3 runs fewer than any other pitcher. His eight Pro Trends are also the second-highest today. St. Louis has additionally produced a .213 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching — far and away the highest in the majors — but Arrieta is the only pitcher who has taken in over 80 percent of moneyline bets (88 percent) this afternoon. His +8.2 Plus/Minus this season is also 3.7 points greater than Steven Matz’s (the closest player at his position).

Corey Kluber, CLE

Per our advanced stats, Kluber’s 15-day batted-ball distance allowed is 35 feet shorter than his 12-month average. The White Sox are projected to score 0.3 more runs than the Indians, but Chicago’s .280 strikeouts per at-bat are still .018 more than Cleveland’s. Coincidentally, Kluber’s strikeouts per nine innings are 0.29 more than the next highest total at the position. His 40-percent Consistency in the last month isn’t great, but his 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel at least allows for an accessible floor.

Scott Kazmir, LAD

Kazmir walked seven batters in his last performance, but it was only the third time all year that he has walked more than one hitter. Also, the Reds have produced a bottom-six walk percentage against left-handed pitching. Fortunately for Kazmir, their projected .256 SO/AB is also bottom-four. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, Kazmir’s exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, as well as his 11-percent hard-hit rate, are both the lowest allowed among pitchers in the last 15 days.

Pitchers to Exploit

Hector Santiago, LAA

Santiago has allowed the lowest line-drive percentage in the last 15 days, but that’s primarily due to his 51-point performance on DraftKings against Seattle. After all, he was chased after only 2.2 innings against Baltimore in his last start. His 60-percent Dud percentage in the last month is also tied with Carlos Martinez’s mark for the highest among pitchers. Needless to say, Santiago’s bottom-three Park Factor (49) and home runs per nine innings (1.71) are at a crossroads this afternoon.

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Philadelphia’s projected wOBA is only seventh among 14 offenses in the main slate, but Sanchez’s 1.78 HR/9 remains the highest. His 215-foot batted-ball distance allowed of late is also bottom-two. Although Detroit is favored to win this afternoon, note that Sanchez has received only 37 percent of moneyline bets to date.

Justin Nicolino, MIA

The Rays strikeout in 25.5 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching. On the other hand (no pun intended), they’re one of only three teams to have recorded an ISO greater than .200 versus left-handed pitching. Opponents have also recorded the highest hard-hit percentage against Nicolino in his last two starts. Of all pitchers in the main slate, he has the highest exit velocity allowed.

C

Tommy Joseph, PHI

If rostering Joseph at catcher, you should note that his batted-ball distance in the last week is two feet greater than Christian Betancourt’s (and the highest among catchers). If you’re rostering him at first base, note that his batted-ball distance is nine feet greater than Miguel Cabrera’s (and, you guessed it, the highest among first basemen in the early slate). That’s not good news for Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed 2.19 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

Salvador Perez, KC

Perez is 7-of-9 in this series, but more notably he has produced a 228-foot batted-ball distance in the last 11 days. Note his .339 wOBA against Dillon Gee, whose 1.68 WHIP is 0.28 higher than that of any other pitcher today.

Jason Castro, HOU

Even though he has been batting sixth recently, Castro has a 237-foot batted-ball distance, the highest among starting catchers. Only he and Chris Herrmann have produced a hard-hit rate over 50 percent in the last 15 days. Castro, however, is in a much better spot, given Tyler Wilson’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Castro’s .180 ISO Differential is also the highest among catchers tonight.

1B

Miguel Cabrera, DET

Aaron Nola’s recent batted-ball distance allowed is 14 feet shorter than Kluber’s. Even so, Cabrera’s 96-MPH exit velocity in the last 12 days is two MPH harder than any other first baseman’s. His 252-foot batted-ball distance in that span trails only Tommy Joseph’s (261). And he’s currently producing a Plus/Minus that even vintage-Miggy would be proud of:

Chris Carter, MIL

Carter is tied with Steve Pearce for the most Pro Trends at first base and has a recent batted-ball distance that is 13 feet greater than Pearce’s mark. Carter has also produced a whopping 98-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, which leads Chris Davis’ by two MPH. Carter’s 34-percent Consistency in the last month is certainly an issue, but Michael Foltynewicz’s 2.28 HR/9 are even more of a concern for Atlanta.

2B

Joe Panik, SF

Like everyone else in this game, Panik will have 13-MPH winds blowing out to centerfield. Unlike everyone else, he has a .487 slugging percentage that is top-three at his position. James Shields has also allowed 1.51 HR/9 in the past year.

Steve Pearce, TB

As noted earlier, Chris Carter’s batted-ball distance is the highest among starting first basemen. With Pearce eligible at second base on DK, you fortunately don’t need to choose between Carter and Pearce. After all, Pearce’s 258-foot batted-ball distance is the highest at second base. Coincidently, DK is where he has a 75-percent Bargain Rating.

3B

Adrian Beltre, TEX

Beltre has a 93-percent Bargain Rating at FD, but that shouldn’t deter you from rostering him at DraftKings, too. Just note his .075 wOBA Differential against left-handed pitching. His raw wOBA of .395 is also the highest among third basemen today.

Jung-ho Kang, PIT

Kang was brought up in yesterday’s MLB Slate Breakdown, and not much has changed since then. His peripherals at third base still stand out. His batted-ball distance, for instance, is 20 feet greater than David Wright’s over their last nine starts. Kang’s exit velocity is three MPH higher than Howie Kendrick’s. All the while, his hard-hit percentage in that span remains the highest at the position. It’s almost a travesty that Rubby De La Rosa has allowed 1.54 HR/9 in the last year.

SS

Francisco Lindor, CLE

Jose Quintana has allowed a .340 slugging percentage to right-handed batters this season. That doesn’t seem high, but it’s all relative in comparison to the .238 he has allowed to lefties. Aledmys Diaz’s .643 slugging is higher than Lindor’s in the early slate, but Lindor also doesn’t face Jake Arrieta today.

Manny Machado, BAL

There are those at his position with a higher recent batted-ball distance, but Machado is second only to Trevor Story among starters, with a .555 slugging percentage. Machado should benefit from the double-digit winds blowing out to left field in Minute Maid Park (assuming that the roof stays open). Oh, and Machado’s wOBA is still notably .019 greater than that of the next-highest starter at his position.

OF

Ian Desmond, TEX

Desmond’s 90-percent Bargain Rating at FD is typically fine on its own, but Hector Santiago has notably allowed 2.21 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season. Additionally, Desmond’s .543 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching is top-10 at his position. His .113 wOBA Differential trails only Michael Conforto’s (.227), Jayson Werth’s (.150), and Ryan Rua’s (.130).

Michael Conforto, NYM

Tanner Roark has limited opponents to an 86-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days, but they’ve also hit the ball nine percentage points harder in that span. Conforto’s hard-hit percentage in that period is top-10 among outfielders in the afternoon slate. His .227/.289 wOBA and ISO Differentials are also .070/.075 greater than anyone else’s at his position.

Jackie Bradley, BOS

The Red Sox are projected to score 0.9 more runs than any other team is tonight. That’s certainly not a good sign for Chad Bettis, who has allowed a 40-percent hard-hit rate in his last two starts. It does, however, bode well for Jackie Bradley who has recorded a 41-percent hard-hit rate in that span. Bradley’s 12.2 DraftKings points per game this month are also the highest among outfielders.

Charlie Blackmon, COL

How the Rockies fare against a knuckle-ball pitcher remains an intriguing question, but Blackmon should be safe no matter what. Note that he has hit the ball 17 feet farther in his last 15 days. His 65-percent Consistency in the last month is also the highest of anyone in Colorado’s lineup.

Weather Watch

There are a few windows to get Royals-Twins in this afternoon, but rain and thunderstorms will be off and on throughout. Expect at least one delay (although the high humidity in the area makes their hitters intriguing). Cubs-Cardinals is also expecting thunderstorms, but none beyond first pitch. Even Jake Arrieta is safe, as no delay would likely occur once the game is actually started.

Good luck!

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No related posts.