MLB

MLB DFS 4/3/16 Slate Breakdown

Congrats! When you’re disheveled many years from now, you’ll be able to tell your grandchildren that you were around to witness the first ever FantasyLabs MLB Breakdown go live. Now, they’ve grown up in an era in which they’re probably smart enough to locate the archive in mere seconds (thereby giving you the finger at the ripe old age of eight), but were they actually around to read the very first one within minutes of it being published? Hell no! For the first few years at least, I bet they can’t tell you what it smells like in the Sistine Chapel, or what it’s like to wake up next to your partner and feel truly happy, or Jose Bautista’s ISO against right-handed pitching.

Note, however, that it doesn’t end here. We’ll be rolling these out every day this season. Along with position-specific complimentary podcasts and a daily catalogue of Trends, our goal is that you never enter a slate feeling less than 100%. And though the terms and stats will eventually become second nature, you could always use the rest of this weekend to brush up on our (free!) MLB Glossary.

So settle in, FantasyLab’ers. Much like you, we’re here for the ride.

 

Pitchers

Marcus Stroman, TOR

The Rays brought in guys like Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, and Brad Miller this offseason to platoon against right-handers. Unfortunately for them, Stroman has produced a GB% (ground-ball percentage) 11% higher than any other pitcher on this slate. Along with the lowest FB% (fly-ball percentage) and LD% (line drive percentage) at his position, Stroman’s Plus/Minus of +5.5 — +2.9 greater than Matt Harvey — over the last 12 months is exactly what we’re looking for in cash-caliber peripherals. Note his -113 money line (second only to Harvey) in Sunday’s slate.

Francisco Liriano, PIT

The Cardinals offense recorded the second-highest K% against lefties last year. That number on the surface, however, means very little considering their lineup this season lacks Jason Hayward (22.1%), Jhonny Peralta (23%), and Mark Reynolds (29.8%). But, if we were to average the strikeout rate of their primary lineup against lefties last season and compare it to those being featured this year, their K% of 22.4% in 2015 is still trumped by their average of 23.08% this season. Liriano also benefits from the lowest air time (average time a batted ball was in the air) among pitchers in this slate.

 

1B

Edwin Encarnacion, TOR

Expected to be ready for opening day, I worry little about Encarnacion’s oblique issues and instead, salivate over his slate-high wOBA against righties. With a Bargain Rating of 75% at DraftKings, he’s considered a cog in the clean-up spot for Toronto and our cash lineups alike.

 

2B

Kolten Wong, STL

Even if Wong hadn’t hit .235/.296/.307 over the last three months of the season, this matchup is arguably the worst of any among second base. Despite producing a 114 wRC+ against righties, for instance, our models show Wong with a wOBA difference of -.098 when facing lefties. With this game expected to be 41 degrees at first pitch (ringing of significance due to the fact that a ball fights less frictional gravity, traveling further, the warmer the location), there’s zero reason to consider Wong in any format.

 

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Though we would all prefer this be a matchup in which Donaldson was squaring off against a lefty, his 96% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is all too good to pass up. Despite an ISO difference of -.104 when facing rights, his ISO of .238 in this slate remains the highest at third base. He’s an above-average cash play as, projected to hit second in Toronto’s order, he’s considered the beginning of our essential Donaldson-Jose Bautista-Encarnacion-Troy Tulowitzki (among others) stack for cash games.

 

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

I realize it’s becoming repetitive, but being a smaller slate, the stack listed above is clearly one of note. With Tulowitzki projected to hit fifth in Toronto’s batting order, forget about his minuscule wOBA difference of -0.075 to righties and instead focus on his price point: Tulowitzki includes a discounted Bargain Rating of 75% at DraftKings.

 

OF

Jose Bautista, TOR

With the highest Distance (average distance traveled by a batted ball) and FB% at his position, Bautista’s ISO of .295 against righties should be considered the top cash option in this slate. Not that you need anymore reason to pay for him, but note Bautista’s Bargain Rating of 91% at DraftKings.

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Bautista may be the outright winner as it pertains to the advanced peripherals we’re looking for, but leading off for the Mets, Granderson is an easy second. His GB/FB ratio (ground ball/fly ball ratio) of 44% is also the lowest among outfielders. With a 90% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Granderson’s ISO difference of .124 remains all too good to pass on.

 

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki

Stop me if you’ve heard this one…

Remember that time I suggested Marcus Stroman? Forget it.

Well, not entirely. Though I love Stroman in this spot (and don’t think he’ll be chalk in comparison to Matt Harvey), there are enough numbers working against him to consider going contrarian in tournaments. Corey Dickerson, for instance, has the highest slugging percentage against righties in this slate, while Logan Morrison’s ISO difference of .146 leads all first-basemen. While the duo would need to be stacked with Evan Longoria (hitting third in between them), it’s not the worst idea if going against the grain.

Good luck!

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Congrats! When you’re disheveled many years from now, you’ll be able to tell your grandchildren that you were around to witness the first ever FantasyLabs MLB Breakdown go live. Now, they’ve grown up in an era in which they’re probably smart enough to locate the archive in mere seconds (thereby giving you the finger at the ripe old age of eight), but were they actually around to read the very first one within minutes of it being published? Hell no! For the first few years at least, I bet they can’t tell you what it smells like in the Sistine Chapel, or what it’s like to wake up next to your partner and feel truly happy, or Jose Bautista’s ISO against right-handed pitching.

Note, however, that it doesn’t end here. We’ll be rolling these out every day this season. Along with position-specific complimentary podcasts and a daily catalogue of Trends, our goal is that you never enter a slate feeling less than 100%. And though the terms and stats will eventually become second nature, you could always use the rest of this weekend to brush up on our (free!) MLB Glossary.

So settle in, FantasyLab’ers. Much like you, we’re here for the ride.

 

Pitchers

Marcus Stroman, TOR

The Rays brought in guys like Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, and Brad Miller this offseason to platoon against right-handers. Unfortunately for them, Stroman has produced a GB% (ground-ball percentage) 11% higher than any other pitcher on this slate. Along with the lowest FB% (fly-ball percentage) and LD% (line drive percentage) at his position, Stroman’s Plus/Minus of +5.5 — +2.9 greater than Matt Harvey — over the last 12 months is exactly what we’re looking for in cash-caliber peripherals. Note his -113 money line (second only to Harvey) in Sunday’s slate.

Francisco Liriano, PIT

The Cardinals offense recorded the second-highest K% against lefties last year. That number on the surface, however, means very little considering their lineup this season lacks Jason Hayward (22.1%), Jhonny Peralta (23%), and Mark Reynolds (29.8%). But, if we were to average the strikeout rate of their primary lineup against lefties last season and compare it to those being featured this year, their K% of 22.4% in 2015 is still trumped by their average of 23.08% this season. Liriano also benefits from the lowest air time (average time a batted ball was in the air) among pitchers in this slate.

 

1B

Edwin Encarnacion, TOR

Expected to be ready for opening day, I worry little about Encarnacion’s oblique issues and instead, salivate over his slate-high wOBA against righties. With a Bargain Rating of 75% at DraftKings, he’s considered a cog in the clean-up spot for Toronto and our cash lineups alike.

 

2B

Kolten Wong, STL

Even if Wong hadn’t hit .235/.296/.307 over the last three months of the season, this matchup is arguably the worst of any among second base. Despite producing a 114 wRC+ against righties, for instance, our models show Wong with a wOBA difference of -.098 when facing lefties. With this game expected to be 41 degrees at first pitch (ringing of significance due to the fact that a ball fights less frictional gravity, traveling further, the warmer the location), there’s zero reason to consider Wong in any format.

 

3B

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Though we would all prefer this be a matchup in which Donaldson was squaring off against a lefty, his 96% Bargain Rating at DraftKings is all too good to pass up. Despite an ISO difference of -.104 when facing rights, his ISO of .238 in this slate remains the highest at third base. He’s an above-average cash play as, projected to hit second in Toronto’s order, he’s considered the beginning of our essential Donaldson-Jose Bautista-Encarnacion-Troy Tulowitzki (among others) stack for cash games.

 

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR

I realize it’s becoming repetitive, but being a smaller slate, the stack listed above is clearly one of note. With Tulowitzki projected to hit fifth in Toronto’s batting order, forget about his minuscule wOBA difference of -0.075 to righties and instead focus on his price point: Tulowitzki includes a discounted Bargain Rating of 75% at DraftKings.

 

OF

Jose Bautista, TOR

With the highest Distance (average distance traveled by a batted ball) and FB% at his position, Bautista’s ISO of .295 against righties should be considered the top cash option in this slate. Not that you need anymore reason to pay for him, but note Bautista’s Bargain Rating of 91% at DraftKings.

Curtis Granderson, NYM

Bautista may be the outright winner as it pertains to the advanced peripherals we’re looking for, but leading off for the Mets, Granderson is an easy second. His GB/FB ratio (ground ball/fly ball ratio) of 44% is also the lowest among outfielders. With a 90% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Granderson’s ISO difference of .124 remains all too good to pass on.

 

Two Things I Like Or Don’t Like

Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion-Tulowitzki

Stop me if you’ve heard this one…

Remember that time I suggested Marcus Stroman? Forget it.

Well, not entirely. Though I love Stroman in this spot (and don’t think he’ll be chalk in comparison to Matt Harvey), there are enough numbers working against him to consider going contrarian in tournaments. Corey Dickerson, for instance, has the highest slugging percentage against righties in this slate, while Logan Morrison’s ISO difference of .146 leads all first-basemen. While the duo would need to be stacked with Evan Longoria (hitting third in between them), it’s not the worst idea if going against the grain.

Good luck!

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No related posts.