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MLB DFS 4/17/16 Slate Breakdown

Note: The Rangers-Orioles game has been postponed due to rain Sunday.

Now that the snow in Denver has somewhat settled and, more notably, my internet has come back on, we can return to our regularly scheduled program of everyday previews.

(Ahem…)

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Corey Kluber, CLE

Kluber has yet to have a dominating standout performance this season, but that’s likely to change against an anemic Mets offense. Though a projected wOBA of .314, New York’s 24.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season qualifies as top eight among offenses. Their ISO against said handedness is bottom five. Along with the third-highest strikeouts per nine among pitchers today, Kluber is also projected to allow only 3.4 runs. His slate-high 11 Pro Trends (among pitchers) make him an elite play as any in tournaments.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Nicasio’s slate-high 1.75 WHIP is certainly concerning, but fortunately, the Brewers don’t average a high walk rate vs. RHP (as shown by their average BB% of 8.5%). Rather, they spend their time swinging and missing — note their projected strikeouts per at-bat of .280. Averaging the highest SO/9 among pitchers today, Nicasio, whose .489 HR/9 over the past 12 months qualifies as top five, is arguably considered the most valuable option if looking to save at his respective position.

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester’s -230 moneyline on Sunday is the highest of any pitcher. The Rockies have produced a top-three ISO vs. LHP this season, but the middle of their lineup has been notably worse when facing said handedness — Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, and Gerardo Parra all have negative ISO Differentials. With Vic Carapazza (+1.5 Plus/Minus) scheduled behind the plate, Lester remains a strong option no matter the format.

Nick Tropeano, LAA

Averaging 9.54 SO/9, Tropeano is set to oppose a Twins offense with the highest K% vs. RHP this season. Enough said.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Moscot has the unfortunate task of pitching to a Cardinals lineup with the highest-projected wOBA (.353) in this slate. Allowing 1.6 HR/9, a St. Louis stack is easily suitable for cash and tourneys alike.

Tyler Chatwood, COL

Averaging the fewest SO/9 among pitchers today, the Cubs seemingly have more than enough firepower (particularly against righties) to exploit Chatwood’s 1.48 HR/9 over the last 12 months. Exposure towards Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Jorge Soler — positive ISO Differentials for each — is warranted, especially if all bat 2-4 again.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

Hitting the ball further (recent Distance Differential of 11 feet) and harder (17% Hard-Hit Differential) this season than he has over the past year, McCann’s .464 slugging vs. RHP is considered the top option among catchers for a reason.

Stephen Vogt, OAK

Along with an ISO Differential of .107, Vogt’s fly-ball percentage this season leads all catchers with at least seven starts under their belt. If starting over Josh Phegley (and he should be given Marcus Semien’s recent promotion to second in their batting order), Vogt is considered the second-best option to McCann.

1B

Brandon Moss, STL

Projected to bat cleanup in that aforementioned Cardinals stack, Moss’ FB% trails only Brandon Belt, David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, and Chris Davis among those with at least five starts.

Mitch Moreland, TEX

Although his performance over the last three games will likely keep his exposure rather high in tournaments, Moreland’s .517 slugging percentage vs. RHP is once again considered an elite option (especially when considering Steven Wright’s 1.38 HR/9). Note the Rangers’ projected total of 5.0 runs, which is the highest of any team today.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

With the highest exit velocity among everyday second basemen, Murphy is a strong option until … well, until he stops pelting the ball, really. His batted-ball distance, for instance, also ranks first among second basemen with at least five starts.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Easily prioritized as the top cash option at his position, note Carpenter’s batted-ball distance of 240 feet and 95 mph exit velocity, both of which rank top three at his position. Expected to lead off for the Cardinals, his .541 slugging percentage vs. RHP is near mandatory in this slate.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

While Kike Hernandez remains the play when the Dodgers oppose a lefty, Seager remains the stronger option against rights. His ISO Differential of .159, for example, is the highest among shortstops. His wOBA and true ISO of .427/.242 are top five.

OF

Joey Rickard, BAL

Rickard probably shouldn’t be a leadoff hitter, but as long as he is, he’s a value each and every night. As for this slate, note his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .144/.088 vs. LHP.

Randal Grichuk, STL

Jeremy Hazelbaker has an edge on Grichuk against lefties, but the latter’s wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP remain higher. Although $100 cheaper than Hazelbaker at DraftKings, Grichuk’s batted-ball distance, FB%, and air time all trump his teammate’s.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Although the Rangers are projected to score the most runs today, this total sits at 9.5 due in part to the Orioles’ ability to hit left-handed pitching. That’s where Trumbo’s .585 slugging against said handedness comes in.

Preston Tucker, HOU

Assuming Evan Gattis starts behind the plate, Tucker will likely fill in at DH for Houston. That means Tucker’s position-leading exit velocity and HH% will square off against Anibal Sanchez, whose 1.62 HR/9 rate is the highest among pitchers in this slate.

Weather Watch

Houston has the highest chance of rain, but they can easily opt to close their roof. That leaves Orioles-Rangers, which simultaneously has a very high chance of thunderstorms, as the sole contest worth monitoring.

Good luck!

Note: The Rangers-Orioles game has been postponed due to rain Sunday.

Now that the snow in Denver has somewhat settled and, more notably, my internet has come back on, we can return to our regularly scheduled program of everyday previews.

(Ahem…)

Let’s do this.

Pitchers

Corey Kluber, CLE

Kluber has yet to have a dominating standout performance this season, but that’s likely to change against an anemic Mets offense. Though a projected wOBA of .314, New York’s 24.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching this season qualifies as top eight among offenses. Their ISO against said handedness is bottom five. Along with the third-highest strikeouts per nine among pitchers today, Kluber is also projected to allow only 3.4 runs. His slate-high 11 Pro Trends (among pitchers) make him an elite play as any in tournaments.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Nicasio’s slate-high 1.75 WHIP is certainly concerning, but fortunately, the Brewers don’t average a high walk rate vs. RHP (as shown by their average BB% of 8.5%). Rather, they spend their time swinging and missing — note their projected strikeouts per at-bat of .280. Averaging the highest SO/9 among pitchers today, Nicasio, whose .489 HR/9 over the past 12 months qualifies as top five, is arguably considered the most valuable option if looking to save at his respective position.

Jon Lester, CHC

Lester’s -230 moneyline on Sunday is the highest of any pitcher. The Rockies have produced a top-three ISO vs. LHP this season, but the middle of their lineup has been notably worse when facing said handedness — Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, and Gerardo Parra all have negative ISO Differentials. With Vic Carapazza (+1.5 Plus/Minus) scheduled behind the plate, Lester remains a strong option no matter the format.

Nick Tropeano, LAA

Averaging 9.54 SO/9, Tropeano is set to oppose a Twins offense with the highest K% vs. RHP this season. Enough said.

Pitchers to Exploit

Jon Moscot, CIN

Moscot has the unfortunate task of pitching to a Cardinals lineup with the highest-projected wOBA (.353) in this slate. Allowing 1.6 HR/9, a St. Louis stack is easily suitable for cash and tourneys alike.

Tyler Chatwood, COL

Averaging the fewest SO/9 among pitchers today, the Cubs seemingly have more than enough firepower (particularly against righties) to exploit Chatwood’s 1.48 HR/9 over the last 12 months. Exposure towards Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Jorge Soler — positive ISO Differentials for each — is warranted, especially if all bat 2-4 again.

C

Brian McCann, NYY

Hitting the ball further (recent Distance Differential of 11 feet) and harder (17% Hard-Hit Differential) this season than he has over the past year, McCann’s .464 slugging vs. RHP is considered the top option among catchers for a reason.

Stephen Vogt, OAK

Along with an ISO Differential of .107, Vogt’s fly-ball percentage this season leads all catchers with at least seven starts under their belt. If starting over Josh Phegley (and he should be given Marcus Semien’s recent promotion to second in their batting order), Vogt is considered the second-best option to McCann.

1B

Brandon Moss, STL

Projected to bat cleanup in that aforementioned Cardinals stack, Moss’ FB% trails only Brandon Belt, David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, and Chris Davis among those with at least five starts.

Mitch Moreland, TEX

Although his performance over the last three games will likely keep his exposure rather high in tournaments, Moreland’s .517 slugging percentage vs. RHP is once again considered an elite option (especially when considering Steven Wright’s 1.38 HR/9). Note the Rangers’ projected total of 5.0 runs, which is the highest of any team today.

2B

Daniel Murphy, WSH

With the highest exit velocity among everyday second basemen, Murphy is a strong option until … well, until he stops pelting the ball, really. His batted-ball distance, for instance, also ranks first among second basemen with at least five starts.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Easily prioritized as the top cash option at his position, note Carpenter’s batted-ball distance of 240 feet and 95 mph exit velocity, both of which rank top three at his position. Expected to lead off for the Cardinals, his .541 slugging percentage vs. RHP is near mandatory in this slate.

SS

Corey Seager, LAD

While Kike Hernandez remains the play when the Dodgers oppose a lefty, Seager remains the stronger option against rights. His ISO Differential of .159, for example, is the highest among shortstops. His wOBA and true ISO of .427/.242 are top five.

OF

Joey Rickard, BAL

Rickard probably shouldn’t be a leadoff hitter, but as long as he is, he’s a value each and every night. As for this slate, note his wOBA and ISO Differentials of .144/.088 vs. LHP.

Randal Grichuk, STL

Jeremy Hazelbaker has an edge on Grichuk against lefties, but the latter’s wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP remain higher. Although $100 cheaper than Hazelbaker at DraftKings, Grichuk’s batted-ball distance, FB%, and air time all trump his teammate’s.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Although the Rangers are projected to score the most runs today, this total sits at 9.5 due in part to the Orioles’ ability to hit left-handed pitching. That’s where Trumbo’s .585 slugging against said handedness comes in.

Preston Tucker, HOU

Assuming Evan Gattis starts behind the plate, Tucker will likely fill in at DH for Houston. That means Tucker’s position-leading exit velocity and HH% will square off against Anibal Sanchez, whose 1.62 HR/9 rate is the highest among pitchers in this slate.

Weather Watch

Houston has the highest chance of rain, but they can easily opt to close their roof. That leaves Orioles-Rangers, which simultaneously has a very high chance of thunderstorms, as the sole contest worth monitoring.

Good luck!