Every time Francisco Liriano takes the mound, if you look around social media or various DFS sites, you are bound to run into an “I’m playing Liriano, but I don’t feel great about it,” type comment. He’s just a guy that we seem to collectively have a hard time trusting with our hard-earned money on the line. Today, I’m going to investigate whether the data actually supports Liriano as a risky option or if he should be in the pitcher’s circle of trust (if there even is such a thing in today’s MLB).
First of all, on a seasonal level, Liriano has been very consistent. Since the end of the 2012 season, his FIP has been between 2.92-3.59, he’s averaged between 9.2 to 10.2 strikeouts per nine, and his groundball and LOB numbers are very similar as well. As a typical southpaw, he has been very tough on lefties and allows higher averages to righties. Recently though, Liriano has been very tough on righties as well. In fact, here are the pitchers who have allowed the lowest wOBA to righties in 2015:
Pretty good for being on the wrong side of the split. Keeping in mind how frequently Liriano has to face righties as an elite left-handed pitcher (look at the IP column in the above screenshot for reference), this is hugely important. It helps that Liriano pitches in a home ballpark (PNC) with a very deep fence to left. How much does that matter? Take a look at the home runs Liriano allowed in 2012, his last season in Minnesota, with PNC Park’s boundaries superimposed over the landing spots:
Approximately 42% of the home runs he allowed that season wouldn’t have made it out of the park, so I’d say it matters a lot. There’s also this, which I came across the other day on Baseball Savant, a chart showing the league leaders in lowest velocity allowed when opposing batters make contact:
Pretty elite company…and Dillon Gee. So he forces light contact, plays in a home park whose dimensions help limit home runs, and has top 10 numbers against righties. These are all reasons why Liriano SHOULD be a relatively consistent pitcher in DFS, but we still have to find out if that’s actually the case.
Overall, Liriano has exceeded his projections by 4.34 in Plus/Minus, which ranks #14 overall among pitchers with 10 or more starts. Looking at individual games, Liriano has really only been blasted once, at home against the Twins where he finished with -10.3 on DraftKings. But that’s only because it was a revenge game gone wrong (LOL #NarrativeStreet). Otherwise, he has exceeded his projection in 12 of 15 starts and his second-lowest score has been 9.95.
Overall, it has translated to an excellent 73% consistency rating. Now that I’ve jinxed the hell out of Liriano, you can expect him to get lit up in his next start. Still, Liriano’s numbers in this and previous seasons have been very consistent and in line with the top tier of starting pitchers in DFS.
