From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Chicago Bears Team Preview
A 6-10 record is not a great way to kick off a new era, but for the 2015 Chicago Bears and new head coach John Fox it was at least a move in the right direction. A 5-11 finish in 2014 was the Bears’ worst record since 2004, and while Fox and company improved the total by only one win there is still reason for optimism.
The league’s 31st-scoring defense in 2014 jumped up to 20th in 2015, and the offense repeated as the 23rd-ranked scoring unit, proving that the Bears could still score without their offensive-minded ex-head coach, Marc Trestman. The 2015 Bears were alive in the playoff race as late as Week 12, after shocking the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Day to move to 5-6, just one game behind in the race for the wild card. Ultimately, the Bears limped to the finish line, losing four of their last five games, but the season was still a major step in the right direction.
2016 will be a bit of a culture shock for Bears fans. For the first time since 2007, longtime workhorse Matt Forte will not be lining up in the Chicago backfield. Additionally, after missing the entire 2015 season due to a left leg injury, the seventh-overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, wide receiver Kevin White, will make his NFL debut. With a healthy offense and a potentially great 2016 draft class, the Bears are trending upward even if they are not yet ready to challenge the Vikings and Packers for the division crown. The Bears will likely still struggle for stretches on offense — Jay Cutler is still the starting quarterback — but they should be improved as a fantasy unit.
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler
Staying healthy has never been easy for Cutler. As of late, however, the Bears quarterback has managed to suit up for 15 games in three of the past four seasons. Cutler’s ability to stay on the field paid off last year in his first season with offensive coordinator Adam Gase (now head coach of the Dolphins). Cutler combined a near-career low 2.3 interception rate with a career-high 7.4 adjusted yards/attempt average through the air. Reigning in Cutler’s sometime suspect decision-making has always been difficult, but Cutler possesses one of the biggest arms in the league and is capable of making any throw on the field. When he avoids mistakes, he can flourish.
Unfortunately for Bears fans hoping to catch a good Cutler performance in Chicago, 2014 and 2015 have both seen Cutler play much better away from home. According to our Trends tool, Cutler had a Plus/Minus of +3.49 when playing away from Soldier Field in 2014 and 2015:
Cutler’s very respectable road Plus/Minus combined with his home Plus/Minus of +1.23 suggests that his superior performance away from Chicago isn’t a fluke.
Unfortunately for Cutler’s fantasy potential, even if his 2015 road performance were stretched out over an entire season, his average of 18.54 points/game would still leave him outside of the top 20 in DraftKings scoring. Surprised? You shouldn’t be, because Cutler has made a career out of not being a top fantasy quarterback, potentially thanks to his red-zone inaccuracy.
The list of 2015 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts and a lower red-zone completion percentage than Cutler’s is short. Jameis Winston and Derek Carr find themselves in this inaccurate group. Cutler’s struggles are nothing new, as his 46.6 completion percentage ranks him 24th out of 25 quarterbacks to have thrown at least 20 red-zone passes in each of the past two seasons, ahead of only Nick Foles.
Cutler has never been great at throwing touchdown passes: He has surpassed 25 touchdowns only twice — and in both of those seasons he led the NFL in interceptions. The addition of the big-bodied White should help Cutler, but even with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery along for most of the ride Cutler has ranked just 21st in fantasy points per game among all quarterbacks since 2013.
In 2016, the loss of Forte might actually benefit Cutler. While the Bears never ran Forte into the turf, he was the clear lead back for years in Chicago. A running back by committee now could lead to Cutler not only throwing the ball more often but also throwing the ball farther down the field, as Forte’s 560 targets and 424 receptions since Cutler arrived in 2009 both rank second in the entire NFL over that span.
The big-armed Cutler still possesses the ability to go off on any given Sunday, and there is reason to believe that Cutler could have a very fantasy-friendly start to 2016. Cutler will face only three opponents from Week 2 to Week 12 that last year had top-20 defenses in quarterback fantasy production allowed. Against softer opponents and with a fully healthy Jeffery and White catching his passes, Cutler could have one of his best fantasy seasons yet. But you probably shouldn’t count on it.
Brian Hoyer
After suffering a humiliating four-interception 30-0 loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2015 AFC Wild Card playoffs, the ex-Houston Texans quarterback has moved on to Chicago to back up Cutler. Hoyer coincidentally backed up Cutler on the 2015 average DraftKings points/game scoring list among quarterbacks (Cutler ranked 28th, Hoyer 29th), and this ranking appears to be Hoyer’s ceiling as a fantasy quarterback. With a sub-60 percent career completion percentage, Hoyer has also thrown for no more than one touchdown in 17 of his 26 career starts, giving him limited upside if/when he needs to start in place of Cutler in 2016.
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery
Coming off of a nine-game season that saw him finish the year ranked 10th among all wide receivers in average Draft Kings points/game, Jeffery posted an incredible Plus/Minus of +4.05 on the season. This was in large part thanks to Jeffery’s being force-fed the football, as he was targeted 94 times in just nine games. In 2015 Jeffery effectively become Cutler’s new primary receiver, replacing Marshall after his trade to the New York Jets.
Evidence for Cutler and Jeffery’s budding bromance can be found in Jeffery’s elite two-year production in warm-weather games:
It’s no secret that Chicago gets quite cold in the winter, and while Jeffery (like his quarterback) possesses a strong Plus/Minus away from Soldier Field he has taken his game to another level when playing in temperatures closer to what he was used to when he played college ball at South Carolina. From 2014 to 2015, 62.5 percent of Bears home games have had game-time temperatures under 60 degrees.
All of Jeffery’s success, plus his 6’3” and 216 lb. frame, begs one question: What’s the deal with Jeffery’s (lack of) red-zone production? With a two-year 14/36 reception/target split, Jeffery has pulled in fewer than 40 percent of his red-zone targets. It’s hard to pinpoint whether this has more to do with Jeffery or his quarterback, but the good news is that Jeffery figures to maintain his 2013-2015 average of over nine targets per game, making him a weekly WR1 option regardless of the matchup.
And if Jeffery somehow improves his red-zone issues in 2016, that will be a very nice bonus.
Kevin White
Take Jeffery, add a 4.35-second 40-yard dash, and you have White. Cutler’s newest 6’3” monster was the seventh-overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, but he missed his entire rookie season due to a left leg injury. White was a bit of a one-year wonder at West Virginia, exploding for over 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns as a senior, but his unreal combine numbers and ability to make big plays — White had at least one reception of 20-plus yards in 10 of his 13 games during his final season — led to his being the second wide receiver selected in the 2015 NFL draft.
As the Bears’ No. 2 receiver, White should still have more than his fair share of targets. Even when perennial go-to receiver Marshall was on the roster for the 2013-2014 seasons, Cutler still threw 148 and 145 targets to Jeffery. If the Bears struggle to run the football in 2016, White has a chance to surpass those target totals.
Eddie Royal
Notorious for blowing up fantasy football waiver wires after scoring five touchdowns in the first two games of the 2013 season, Royal enters 2016 as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver. And even if Royal somehow moves up the depth chart, it might be better still to treat Royal as a WR3. In the last five years, Royal has reached 100 yards receiving in a game just once. A touchdown- and target-dependent fantasy option, Royal is likely to be hard-pressed to come by either touchdowns or targets in an offense that features Jeffery and White.
Marquess Wilson
At 6’3” and 195 lbs., Wilson in 2015 combined his nice size with a newfound ability to make plays down the field, as he averaged 16.6 yards/catch. Unfortunately, his third NFL season was cut short thanks to a broken left foot, and Week 7 may be the earliest he’ll get back to the field, as Wilson is a candidate to start the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list. In the three games in 2015 in which he saw at least six targets, Wilson averaged 5.6 receptions, 89 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game.
If he ever sees regular targets, Wilson has the potential to produce. But with Jeffery and White blocking his way and an injury likely to keep him on the bench for a chunk of the season, Wilson is unlikely to get much opportunity in 2016.
Josh Bellamy
2015 marked the first time in Bellamy’s four-year NFL career that he caught a pass. In fact, Bellamy turned his 16-game season into 19 catches for 224 yards and two touchdowns. With a 4.38-second 40-yard dash, Bellamy is quite the athlete, but he will need to display his athleticism more on the field if he wants to see action on a regular basis. His 6.4 yards/target average in 2015 was well below Marquess Wilson’s 9.1 mark.
If Bellamy sees another 34 targets this year, all will likely not be well with the Bears offense.
Marc Mariani
A Pro Bowl return man with the Titans early in his career, Mariani last year recorded his first offensive statistics since 2011, as the injury-riddled Bears needed him to take snaps. Mariani actually acquitted himself fairly well, turning 33 targets into 22 receptions and 300 yards. It’s pseudo-blasphemous to say that Mariani has ‘Julian Edelman potential,’ but he has at least ‘Cole Beasley potential.’ In his final two years at Montana, the smallish Mariani averaged 74.5 receptions for 1,393.5 yards and 14 touchdowns per season.
If he somehow became the team’s regular slot receiver, Mariani would likely be a very undervalued reception-accumulating DFS asset.
Running Backs
Jeremy Langford
If there were ever a running back who had a very fantasy-friendly season, it would be 2015 Langford. Yes, Langford’s six touchdowns were fourth among all rookie running backs last year. Also, yes, five of those touchdowns came on six rush attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line. There is a case to be made that certain running backs are better than others at pounding the ball into the end-zone — but the 6’0” and 208 lb. Langford makes that case a tough sell. We should expect his incredible conversion rate within the five-yard line to regress in 2016.
Langford’s 42 targets in 2015 point to a running back who can be effective in the passing game — but Langford’s putrid 52.4 percent catch rate (dead last in 2015 among the 63 running backs with at least 20 catches) makes it hard to put too much faith in his ability as a receiver. That he averaged only 5.6 yards/catch over his career at Michigan State and hauled in only 11 balls his final season doesn’t help his cause. Playing as a receiver just doesn’t seem to be his . . . Forte.
During Langford’s hottest stretch last season — a four-game streak in which he scored five touchdowns — he didn’t average over four yards/carry in any single game. Perhaps this season Langford will be able to translate his 4.42-second 40-yard dash into on-field efficiency, but if he doesn’t then he will likely find himself sharing snaps with another back in a committee.
Jordan Howard
Although Langford’s conversion rate within the five-yard line is likely to regress all on its own, it’s possible that the 6’0” and 230 lb. Howard may prevent Langford from getting any touches near the goal-line altogether. A rookie running back who was a bowling bowl at Indiana, Howard ran for 1,213 yards on just 196 carries in his final collegiate season, good for a 6.2 yards/carry average. This production didn’t come against terrible defenses either, as Howard put up 238 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan’s consensus top-10 unit.
Howard will need to prove that he can stay healthy — he played in only nine games during his final season — and he’ll also need to prove that he has more receiving ability than his 24 collegiate receptions suggest, but Howard’s skill set gives him a real chance to beat out Langford for the starting job.
With power, size, and athleticism — he ran a 4.59-second 40-yard dash in his pre-draft workout — Howard could become a rookie sensation if he sees regular snaps.
Ka’Deem Carey
While Carey has been in Chicago longer than any other running back on the roster, his 79 career carries have yielded an average of four yards/carry and a long run of just 15 yards. Carey will need injuries to strike players ahead of him on the depth chart to have a chance of producing any sort of fantasy value, and even then his ceiling is fairly low. His 4.70-second 40-yard dash gestures toward the extent to which Carey is nothing more than a (slow) change-of-pace guy.
Jacquizz Rodgers
At 5’6” and 196 lbs., Rodgers produced back-to-back 50-reception campaigns in 2012 and 2013 with Atlanta, but with a career yards/reception average of just 7.1 Rodgers lacks the explosion to turn his receptions into big plays. And his 3.6 yards/carry rushing average should prevent him from seeing more than a handful of carries.
It’s possible that he could become the team’s primary receiving back and submit an uninspiring reception-driven RB3-esque 2016 season. But even if that happens his upside will be almost nonexistent: Never has he scored more than four touchdowns in any season.
Tight End
Zach Miller
With Martellus Bennett now on the Patriots, the starting Chicago Bears tight end is currently the guy who used to be ‘The Other Zach Miller.’ After missing most of 2011 and all of 2012, 2013, and 2014, Miller emerged in 2015 to show real promise in his role as Chicago’s go-to tight end, scoring five touchdowns in his final eight games of action. More impressively, in those games Miller posted an unbelievable Plus/Minus of +7.77 on DraftKings. However, any trust that is placed in Miller should come with the realization that he has only 79 career receptions and thrived last season in a Bears offense that was missing Jeffery for significant time. Miller can play — I mean, look at this one-handed snag against San Diego last season — but this season the majority of this offense’s targets will go to its two outside beast receivers, and Miller will have to fight for anything else he can get.
At least one thing that Miller does have going for him is that he converted into touchdowns all three of his 2015 targets inside the 10-yard line. The sample is small and Miller’s efficiency in the red zone will of course regress, but it’s possible that in 2016 Miller will be a red-zone target on whom Cutler can finally rely.
Rob Housler
Housler entered the league in 2011. Since then 69 different tight ends have been targeted at least 100 times. Housler ranks dead last in this group with just one career touchdown, and he combines this lack of scoring with a career catch percentage of just 62.3, also below-average among tight ends. Don’t expect Housler to break his out of his touchdown slump with Cutler throwing the ball to him.
Of course, it’s always possible that this year Housler could do to Miller what Miller did to Bennett last year. After all, before breaking out Miller wasn’t that dissimilar from Housler: An aging veteran who hasn’t broken out yet. At least Housler has elite athleticism to aid him in the event that a Miller injury affords him a greater opportunity to disappoint people for another season.
Two-Minute Warning
An uncertain backfield combined with real playmakers on the outside could make for a pass-happy Bears offense in 2016. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the Bears’ 2016 schedule and see how their opponents ranked in terms of average fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2015.
From Week 2 to Week 12, seven of the Bears’ 10 opponents have defenses that finished 2015 ranked 20th or lower in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This doesn’t even factor in a Week 3 trip to Dallas, where the Cowboys will be without three of their defensive starters due to suspension.
This season, the Bears offense will go as far as Cutler takes it. Chicago’s talented young wide receivers will have plenty of opportunities to shine as the offense adjusts to life without Forte. And don’t count out Fox’s ability to turn teams around in a hurry. Fox led Carolina and Denver to four- and five-win improvements in his second seasons as head coach, and both teams made it to the Super Bowl. Expecting this year’s Bears to become Fox’s third Super Bowl team is unrealistic — Vegas set the Bears’ 2016 win total at 7.5 — but an improved defense and potentially potent passing attack should make the Bears a more formidable opponent in 2016.
