Every week in Three Breakout Players we highlight a few players on the verge of earth-shattering fantasy football breakouts. Or, less ambitiously, we discuss players set up to exceed production expectations at low ownership [wink]. This week we highlight an athletic young quarterback now in command of one of the league’s most dynamic offenses and two wide receivers boasting impressive college production and playmaking ability poised to ascend in their respective offenses.
Brett Hundley, Packers QB: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
With early-season Most Valuable Player candidate Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) potentially lost for the remainder of the season, Brett Hundley is now in control of one the NFL’s most productive offenses. When suddenly thrust into action in a hostile atmosphere at Minnesota in relief of Rodgers, Hundley struggled, throwing three interceptions. After seeing his first significant regular season action in Week 6, Hundley now has a week to prepare with the first-team offense heading into a home game against the Saints.
Earning the starting job as a freshman at UCLA, he threw for 3,740 yards, which earned Hundley a 19.2 (90th percentile) Breakout Age on PlayerProfiler.com. Hundley possesses an exciting combination of size (6’3″ and 226 pounds) and uncommon athleticism, evidenced by his 123.0 (90th percentile) Speed Score and 10.91 (96th percentile) Agility Score. After Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, Hundley was the most intriguing quarterback prospect of the 2015 NFL draft.
While no quarterback can process information on the fly and execute money throws the way Rodgers can, Hundley can improvise like UCLA alum Ben Stiller when plays break down and extend drives by roaming outside the pocket. Hundley showcased his versatility in college by rushing for 1,747 yards with 30 touchdowns in just three years. He finished his college career with a 75:25 touchdown-to-interception ratio, boasting an 82.3 (81st percentile) College QBR. How was Brett Hundley, who both looks the part and excels in key analytical categories, selected after inferior quarterbacks in Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion, and Garrett Grayson two years ago? Do better, @NFL.
Brett Hundley Advanced Metrics Prospect Profile on PlayerProfiler.com
The Packers are -4.0 home underdogs with the third-highest over/under at 47.5 points. While the Saints defense is improving and may not be the matchup we thought it was just a few weeks ago, they are allowing the eighth-most (20.6) DraftKings and twelfth-most (18.4) FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Packers skill position players have a +9.63 (seventh) Supporting Cast Rating on PlayerProfiler. Given the talent around him, the matchup, and his price, Hundley is an intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools and maybe even cash games.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers WR: $3,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
One of the most precocious wide receiver prospects in recent years, JuJu Smith-Schuster achieved an 18.8 (93rd percentile) Breakout Age as a true sophomore. That year, he posted a truly epic 89 receptions for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns. While Smith-Schuster is more of a technician than a vertical playmaker, he offers above average size-adjusted athleticism, evidenced by a 101.2 (72nd percentile) Speed Score and an 11.07 (65th percentile) Agility Score.
As the youngest player in the NFL, Smith-Schuster supplanted Eli Rogers as the team’s slot receiver in preseason, and last week he continued his onslaught on Martavis Bryant’s snap diminishing snap share. Smith-Schuster lacks Bryant’s vertical ability, but he has been a much more efficient player this season.
| Player | Production Premium | Target Premium | Target Separation | Yards Per Target | Air Yards Per Target | RZ Target Share |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +8 | +38.1% | 2.2 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 28% |
| Martavis Bryant | -12 | -9.4% | 1.5 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 12% |
Pittsburgh is a -5.0 home favorite against Cincinnati with an implied team total of 23 points. The home matchup is a plus for Steelers pass catchers, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has notorious home/road splits. Smith-Schuster makes for a savvy pivot play and inexpensive stacking option with Roethlisberger in GPPs.
Leonte Carroo, Dolphins WR: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Piquing the interest of draftniks during the 2016 NFL draft season, Leonte Carroo was an epic producer at Rutgers, evidenced by an other-worldly 63.9 percent (99th percentile) College Dominator Rating. The most dominant wide receiver of his draft class, Carroo also averaged 20-plus yards per reception and scored 10 touchdowns in both his sophomore and junior seasons. With 4.50 speed in a sturdy 6’0″ and 211-pound frame, Carroo profiles as prototypical NFL flanker and target hog.
While Carroo has been buried on Miami’s depth chart, an ankle injury to DeVante Parker opened up an opportunity for Carroo in Week 6, as he played his highest snap share of the season. Unfortunately, Carroo did not reel in any of his three targets, although none of them were deemed catchable per PlayerProfiler.com’s advanced passing metrics.
Miami is a -4.0 home favorite this week against the Jets. While it might seem that this matchup would favor the run game, as the Jets are allowing 4.6 (24th) yards per carry, in Week 2 they held running back Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 attempts. In that game, quarterback Jay Cutler also attempted a season-high 44 passes. The Dolphins could throw the ball more than we might expect. If Parker is out, Carroo will be an intriguing minimum-priced option for tournaments, given that we’re projecting him for less than one percent ownership in our Models.
Good luck this week, and be sure to visit our suite of Tools to identify other breakout players.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
