This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today’s four-game main slate features four teams currently undefeated in regulation. Despite being such a small slate, it has plenty of situations that stand out.
Auston Matthews: Center, Maple Leafs ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
If you like offense, Toronto hosting Chicago shouldn’t disappoint. This game features the highest over/onder on the slate (6.5 goals) and the Maple Leafs possess the highest implied total (3.5) of any team. Through just two games, the Maple Leafs are actually tied with the opposing Blackhawks for a league-leading 7.5 goals per game (GPG), and Toronto’s 2.5 power play GPG is the highest in the NHL. It’s an unsustainable pace for both teams, but Auston Matthews is off to a great start with a goal and three assists just one year after from leading the league in even-strength goals (32) as a 19-year-old. His 279 shots were eighth in the league and third among centers. Over the last year, Matthews has finished in the 97th percentile in one of our new metrics, shots+blocks per game, and he leads all centermen in the slate with 4.12 peripheral stats per game. Chicago allowed the eighth-most shots but took the third-fewest minor penalties (2.72 per game) last season. However, when they did allow an opportunity on the man advantage, their 77.7 percent penalty kill was seventh worst.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Center, Oilers ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
The Oilers second-line center finished with a career-high 200 shots (2.44 per game) last season, but his price rarely reflects his solid peripheral stat floor. That’s the case again tonight as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is priced just 17th at the position even though he’s eighth on the slate with 2.86 shots+blocks per game over the past year. Nugent-Hopkins will see time on the second power play unit against a Jets’ penalty kill that has allowed four goals in two games already to start the season, the second-highest total of any team. Winnipeg’s issues on special teams seem to have carried over from last year, when their 77.5 percent penalty kill was the fifth worst in the NHL. Edmonton has an implied total of 3.4 and went 3-0 against the Jets last year, averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Brandon Montour: Defenseman, Ducks ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel)
Finding value will be important tonight if you decide to jam in a high-priced forward like the aforementioned Matthews, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid, or Patrick Kane. Paying down at defenseman for a guy like Brandon Montour makes a ton of sense as his DraftKings price of $3,200 probably doesn’t reflect his increased role after the Ducks sent Shea Theodore to the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Montour was great down the stretch for the Ducks last year, tallying seven assists in 17 playoff games after playing just 27 in the regular season. In the AHL, he averaged 4.11 shots per game last season. Currently slotted on the point of the Ducks’ top power play unit, his 90 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating makes him appealing at home against the Flames, who allowed the second-most power play opportunities per game last year (3.38).
Oscar Klefbom: Defenseman, Oilers ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
Oscar Klefbom is the highest-rated defenseman in the CSURAM88 Model, and at the time of writing Edmonton is the slate’s biggest favorite. For an affordable price, Klefbom trails only Dustin Byfuglien with his nine FanDuel Pro Trends, and his 4.31 shots+blocks per game over the past year is third on the slate for any skater. Klefbom makes for a great addition to an EDM1 stack as he plays on the Oilers’ first power play unit and typically correlates well with McDavid (0.19). Historically, defensemen playing at home with comparable salaries, implied totals, and peripheral stats have offered a +2.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus at 12.6 percent ownership.
John Gibson: Goaltender, Ducks ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Ownership at goaltender skews toward the heavy favorites, so whoever is between the pipes for Edmonton will likely be chalky. Monitor our Starting Goalies page for updates, but at this time John Gibson looks to be a strong pivot in guaranteed prize pools. He has an NHL career save percentage of .922, and under the heaviest workload of his career last season (52 games) he posted career-high six shutouts, good for sixth in the league. The Ducks are currently -125 moneyline favorites at home against Calgary, a division opponent they went 4-1 against last season. Gibson is the top-rated goalie in the CSURAM88 Model across both sites.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
