Andrew McCutchen has the 3rd highest WAR in baseball since 2011. The former MVP has always been distinguished by his dreadlocks and his cool demeanor at the dish. So when the former MVP cut off his trademark dreads, people joked that it would be his downfall. The jokes started to lose their humor when McCutchen hit just .194 through the first month of the season.
The 28-year-old is in the prime of his career so what could be the reason for the slow start?
Like many players, McCutchen’s worst splits come during the months of March and April (career: .260 average, .337 wOBA).
It’s natural that players need time to adjust at the beginning of a new season. Driving a baseball is also a much more difficult task during the frigid months in Pittsburgh. The average temperature at PNC Park was 54 degrees this March/April – far from ideal.
Being the superstar that he is, McCutchen has begun to bounce back handsomely.
But it’s gone largely unnoticed on DraftKings:
Over this most recent three-game span last year, McCutchen would have cost you $5,800. Right now you can get the same player for $4,200.
If you’re still convinced that this is a justified discount rather than an oversight by DraftKings, have a look at McCutchen’s ISO and wOBA graphs:
We can see that McCutchen is prone to early season struggles but his slow start to 2015 was a bit more pronounced. However, he is following the same path that earned him 1st and 3rd place in the MVP voting each of the last two years, respectively.
If these maps are any indication then McCutchen is currently on the fast track toward midseason form. Savvy DFS players understand that there are a handful of players in the league with top talent. With these players, a recovery is only a matter of time. It appears as though McCutchen’s time is coming soon.